|Suburgatory Premiere/Avg/Finale||Other Modern Family Lead-outs|
|3.3/2.60/1.8 (2011-12) |
2.52 average lead-in
|4.4/2.93/2.8 (Cougar Town, 2009-10) |
3.4/2.58/2.0 (Cougar Town, 2010-11)
3.7/2.18/1.6 (Mr. Sunshine, 2010-11)
3.1/2.71/1.7 (Happy Endings, 2011-12)
2.9/2.34/2.4 (Apartment 23, 2011-12)
3.2 (The Neighbors, 9/26/12) (5.5 MF)
To me, the most relevant two data points are the last two fall premieres after Modern Family, last year's Happy Endings (3.1) and The Neighbors (3.2) from a few weeks ago. Tonight's Modern Family will probably not be as strong as the 5.7 that led into Happy Endings or the 5.5 that led into The Neighbors. Modern Family had a 4.8 and 4.9 last week and should be in that vicinity again. But I also feel that last season showed us Suburgatory is a Truly stronger show than either of those two. The Neighbors has dropped more relative to The Middle than Suburgatory ever did. So if The Middle and Modern Family could come back within 10% year-to-year, Suburgatory should be able to get pretty close to even since it's got a better timeslot now.
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