Thursday, October 4, 2012

The Question, Thursday 10/4/12: Will Last Resort Sink or Swim?


The 2.2 demo for the premiere of Last Resort invited plenty of comparisons to ABC's two drama occupants in this timeslot last year. But the dirty little secret about Charlie's Angels and Missing is that week one wasn't really what killed those shows; it was the 20%+ drop in week two. If those 2.1 premieres had turned into series settling somewhere in the upper 1's, that just may have been enough in a brutal timeslot where ABC can't possibly expect much. Tonight should tell us a decent amount about just how long the show will last. Will Last Resort sink or swim? That's The Question for Wednesday, October 3, 2012.

Last Resort premiere Last Season's ABC Drama Week Twos
2.2 (9/27/2012) +5% (GCB), +0% (Scandal), -3% (Once Upon a Time), -16% (Pan Am), -18% (Revenge), -24% (Missing), -29% (Charlie's Angels), -29% (The River)

As much as Missing and Charlie's dropped in this slot, I have to think they had (even at their modest premiere levels) certain hooks that helped get people to show up on premiere night. Charlie's Angels was a remake of an iconic series, and Missing was right in the Ashley Judd wheelhouse. Is Last Resort more likely to hold up than those two? I would lean yes. But a show's also more likely to take a big drop when there are lots of options on other networks. CBS, Fox and the NFL Network offer those in a big way in the 8:00 hour.

Over/Under: 1.85.

No entries accepted after 6:00am ET the morning after the date in the headline. If editing your pick, please leave a separate comment.

16 comments:

Spot said...

Over. I'll guess that it drops three tenths to 1.9

Spot said...

Over

Spot said...

It did have a decent repeat number. I'll go over at 1.9.

Spot said...

Over, 2.2.
With DVR viewing included and encore ratings added, pilot was over 4.0 in A18-49. And it was great (for low broadcast standards), so I'm sure many people will be back for second episode. But big problem is competition, it is very questionable how many of those people will actually watch it at Thursday already. So 2.2 is more a wishful thinking, I'm not even sure it gets over 1.85.

Spot said...

Over. But just barely

Spot said...

The DVR numbers were good, but this is a tough call. I have made so many mistakes by picking the over that I am tempted to go under. With that said:
Over- 1.9

Spot said...

Will these Questions continue throughout the season?

Spot said...

Under. Sunk

Spot said...

Under, but barely. No new shows are holding up well in week 2.

Spot said...

Yes, though I won't be stretching to have one for each day. Want to stick to just numbers that are both relevant and fairly unpredictable. Hoping to have at least a couple pretty much every week.

Spot said...

The competition sinks ABC's submarine. Under.

And I'm going to rage to high heaven and back about it on TV By The Numbers, too.

Spot said...

Over. 1.9

Spot said...

over, hoping for a high retention rate due to large DVR viewing, and second episodes are dropping dropping

Spot said...

Over

Spot said...

I will say over at 1.9.

Spot said...

The deadline has pased, but I will still leave my 1.9 prediction (i have an early estimate of that rating, so i know, it's not fair, but i was expecting that anyway). So over

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