Wednesday, April 17, 2013

First Two Weeks, How to Live With Your Parents (For the Rest of Your Life)

The Modern Family lead-in helped produce yet another strong series premiere number, this time for sitcom How to Live With Your Parents (For the Rest of Your Life). The show's 2.9 premiere with a 4.2 Modern Family lead-in exactly mirrored what Apartment 23 did on premiere night a year ago. Exactly mirroring something that went on to get renewed a year ago is a good thing.

How to Live took a noticeable yet reasonable drop in week two, dipping 14% to a 2.5 demo. Its Modern Family lead-in was also down four tenths to a 3.8. It dropped a tick behind the year-ago Apartment 23 pace, but it remained much stronger than recent episodes of previous occupant Suburgatory (which had been in the 2.0 vicinity in recent post-original episodes).

This might seem like a classic "Defer" situation, since tonight's week three will bring a totally new situation in the form of a repeat Modern Family lead-in. But this early in the show's run, I don't think the ratings from the post-repeat weeks will be as important as what happens on the other side of the post-repeat airings. Apartment 23 dropped three tenths from week two to its next episode with an original lead-in. If How to Live does that, it'll be at a 2.2 and still ahead of the recent Suburgatory pace. It'd have to drop a half point to get on the Suburgatory pace, and even that may not be enough for a cancel since Suburgatory is apparently pretty safe for renewal.

I'm a little worried about the unknown ahead, but my feeling is it'd have to significantly underachieve to get the axe at this point. That may happen, but I don't think we're really going to get a clear picture of that until the next episode with an original lead-in. And deferring after solid showings in weeks one and two doesn't seem like it's honoring the spirit of the deferral option. Renew.

"First Two Weeks" is my look at... the first two weeks of a new scripted broadcast show's ratings. I also line up all of the premiere and week two drop numbers together.

1 comment:

Spot said...

You are brave but I get your point in not deferring. I think it sits firmly at the bubble at this point, but if i had to guess, i would also go with renew.

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