Friday, April 26, 2013

Spotted Ratings, Thursday 4/25/13


WHAT MATTERS:
  • I've never really understood why the NFL Draft takes such a huge chunk out of broadcast ratings, but the trend has become undeniable. And as usual, it was NBC and the typically resilient CBS taking the hardest hits. Two and a Half Men looked absolutely brutal airing against the highest picks, while The Big Bang Theory, Person of Interest and Elementary also hung season lows. (TBBT adjusted way up to merely tie the low.) NBC, meanwhile, saw each of its shows drop multiple ticks. Hannibal has gone from encouraging to pretty much on death's door in two short weeks and will have to hope for a post-Draft upswing next week. It's hard to feel encouraged, since generally the 10/9c hour is hit the least by the Draft.
  • It wasn't quite as bad on the other, more female-skewing networks, whose shows were generally near the low end rather than way below the low end. An exception of note was Scandal, the only week-to-week riser. It built on Grey's Anatomy for the first time ever, and it held up after finals! And Glee took a big hit; it shouldn't have to worry about the Draft too much, but it was probably more damaged by the return of Grey's.
  • The NFL Draft posted a 2.9 rating on ESPN (down 12% from last year's 3.3) and was even on the NFL Network with a 0.7. Like last year, I applied the combined rating (3.6) as cable competition on the True2 scores. This should probably be more skewed toward the beginning of the evening, since I'm pretty sure the rating is higher for the early picks, but I don't know what to do without having the hard numbers.

FULL TABLE:

InfoShowTimeslotTrue2
Viewers A18-49 Last LeLa Rank y2yTLa Ty2y
Wife Swap 3.42 1.1 -27%n/a 6/6 n/a -24% -19% 1.39
Grey's Anatomy 8.24 2.7 -4%-15% 20/21 -18% +157% -18% 3.45
Scandal 7.90 2.8 +8%-4% 1/19 +40% +229% +37% 3.31
The Big Bang Theory 15.05 4.5 -13%n/a 20/21 +10% +45% +10% 4.92
Two and a Half Men 11.32 2.8 -28%-13% 21/21 n/a +17% +12% 3.01
Person of Interest 13.22 2.4 -11%-28% 20/20 +0% -14% +0% 2.79
Elementary 10.07 2.0 -5%-11% 19/19 n/a +25% -9% 2.41
Community 2.33 1.0 -23%n/a 10/11 -29% -23% -29% 1.19
The Office (R) 1.84 0.9
-10% -44% 1.35
The Office 3.25 1.7 -11%-40% 20/20 -19% +0% -19% 2.27
Parks and Recreation 2.59 1.3 -24%+0% 21/21 -19% -24% -19% 1.70
Hannibal 2.40 1.0 -29%-24% 4/4 n/a -33% +33% 1.36
American Idol Thu 11.40 2.8 -7%n/a 14/15 -30% -7% -31% 3.41
Glee 5.24 1.8 -14%-7% 18/20 -33% -16% -3% 2.07
The Vampire Diaries 2.24 1.0 +0%n/a 18/20 -9% +0% -9% 1.29
Beauty and the Beast 1.24 0.5 -17%+0% 15/19 n/a -17% -9% 0.55

KEY (click to expand)
Viewers - The total number of viewers (age 2+, in millions) that watched the program.
A18-49 - Adults 18-49 rating. Percentage of US TV-owning adults 18-49 watching the program.
Last - A18-49 percent difference from previous episode.
LeLa - A18-49 percent difference between the show's lead-in and its lead-in for the previous episode.
Rank - The A18-49 rating's rank among the show's episodes that have aired so far this season.
y2y - The show's A18-49 rating compared to its rating a year ago.
TLa - The show's A18-49 rating compared to the network's rating in the timeslot one week ago.
Ty2y - The show's A18-49 rating compared to the network's rating in the timeslot one year ago.
True2 - The second edition of True Strength, a metric that adjusts the A18-49 rating for overall viewing levels, competition and lead-in. PRELIMINARY CALCULATION. For finals, see SpotVault.

(R) - Repeat.

Much more detail on these numbers at the New Daily Spotted Ratings page.

More Spotted Ratings in the Index.

10 comments:

Spot said...

Someone explain to me how Glee got renewed for a Season 5 AND a Season 6?

Spot said...

I wish I could. It just doesn't make any sense. Unless someone popped a few pills beforehand?

Spot said...

That Hannibal drop is seriously disappointing. I'm hard-pressed to figure out why people are bailing. Any theories, anyone?

Spot said...

I can think of a few, but none of them are very good...

1. The ancillary revenue the show brings in from touring and album/song sales.
2. Budget and/or licensing fee reductions for the next two years.
3. It's still strong enough in the 18-34 demo for Fox.

Spot said...

My two ideas...

1. The low-ratedness of NBC Thursdays caught up with the show.
2. Scandal and Elementary were back with originals.

Spot said...

I hadn't really contemplated those. That makes pretty good sense in terms of external factors.

Thinking on the creative side, there's a certain...strangeness...to it. It's a bit of an acquired taste, and actually took me until the second episode to really get in the groove w/ it.

Spot said...

I read on Deadline that because their shows do so well on streaming sites, they might renew all their shows. I don't know if that would be a game-changer, but it would show that off-network viewing is becoming more important in renewal discussions.

Spot said...

I think it is something along these lines. In other words: I think it is not so much that the secret circle and beauty and the beast had different performances, but more that the cw as a whole was in a worse position than they were last year. In my home made index, which takes into account the number of episodes, proximity to syndication, stability and ratings, I had the secret circle at 61% last year and I have beauty and the beast at 80% this year. So yes, because the cw as a whole was much worse (particularly the carrie diaries show being much worse than hart of dixie was last year), beauty and the beast got a pass whereas the secret circle didn't.

Spot said...

I don't believe that until I see it. Plus, the general theory that has been floating around is that streaming revenues are still a tiny fraction of the overall revenues for a show. This being said, I still believe that they are more important for the cw where the ad ratings revenues must be smaller than the remaining nets (which makes the % importance of streaming revenues and others like that higher than for let's say CBS)

Spot said...

I gave up after two episodes. I was excited for the show, but it was just not all that good.

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