Wednesday, April 24, 2013

Spotted Ratings, Tuesday 4/23/13


WHAT MATTERS:
  • There wasn't a lot of week-to-week excitement on the last Tuesday before sweeps, though The Voice will once again drop a few ticks week-to-week, suggesting last week was quite possibly this season's high point (until maybe the finale).
  • CBS' mothership NCIS saw only a tiny rally from its surprisingly soft point last week.
  • Of some concern was a second straight downtick from Hart of Dixie. While I would still put it ahead of the other CW bubble shows, it would do well to not make this its normal level in the weeks leading up to the upfront. Fellow bubbler Body of Proof went in the opposite direction, adjusting up in finals to tie a season high.

FULL TABLE:

InfoShowTimeslotTrue2
Viewers A18-49 Last LeLa Rank y2yTLa Ty2y
Splash 4.87 1.1 +0%n/a 5/6 n/a +0% -21% 1.18
Dancing with the Stars Tue 12.65 2.0 -9%+0% 4/5 -17% -9% -17% 2.09
Body of Proof 9.35 1.6 +14%-9% 1/10 n/a +10% -27% 1.54
NCIS 17.33 2.8 +4%n/a 19/21 n/a +115% +40% 2.88
NCIS: Los Angeles 14.22 2.7 +0%+4% 16/21 n/a +26% +59% 2.41
Golden Boy 7.94 1.4 -7%+23% 7/10 n/a -7% -3% 1.22
The Voice Tue 12.78 4.1 -11%n/a 4/5 +21% -12% +82% 4.04
Ready for Love 2.86 1.1 -8%-11% 3/3 n/a -10% -55% 0.79
Hell's Kitchen 4.83 2.0 -5%n/a 4/8 n/a -5% -26% 2.10
New Girl (R) 2.36 1.2 +9% -54% 1.11
The Mindy Project (R) 1.81 0.9 +0% -36% 1.10
Hart of Dixie 1.10 0.4 -20%n/a 20/20 -20% -27% -27% 0.44
America's Next Top Model (R) 0.67 0.3 +50% +0% 0.33

KEY (click to expand)
Viewers - The total number of viewers (age 2+, in millions) that watched the program.
A18-49 - Adults 18-49 rating. Percentage of US TV-owning adults 18-49 watching the program.
Last - A18-49 percent difference from previous episode.
LeLa - A18-49 percent difference between the show's lead-in and its lead-in for the previous episode.
Rank - The A18-49 rating's rank among the show's episodes that have aired so far this season.
y2y - The show's A18-49 rating compared to its rating a year ago.
TLa - The show's A18-49 rating compared to the network's rating in the timeslot one week ago.
Ty2y - The show's A18-49 rating compared to the network's rating in the timeslot one year ago.
True2 - The second edition of True Strength, a metric that adjusts the A18-49 rating for overall viewing levels, competition and lead-in. PRELIMINARY CALCULATION. For finals, see SpotVault.

(R) - Repeat.

Much more detail on these numbers at the New Daily Spotted Ratings page.

More Spotted Ratings in the Index.

13 comments:

Spot said...

So what do we think about Body of Proof? Is ABC really going to drag this show into syndication with just 42 episodes by the end of this year? Am I supposed to believe that it's going to get two 22 episode seasons or three 13 episode seasons? That's a pretty big commitment for a show that can't even sniff a 2.0.

Spot said...

I think it will be renewed, yes. I have it at 90% in my index (which looks at proximity to syndication, stability and ratings all together) and that always warrants a renewal, unless I am over-estimating the negative value of a freshman show in my formula, let's see what happens.

Spot said...

Out of curiosity (since this is the first year I follow your amazing site), do you do any sort of post about bubble shows before the upfronts? I am not even saying with predictions (since you've told me in the past that you usually leave that to TVBTN) but in terms of what you believe networks should do. I am interested in knowing your views on BoP. I know you did not like that ABC brought it back and that you didn't like that it got the post DWTS slot again. Do you still think that way?

Spot said...

The final expanded Power Rankings next week, which will have most of the "bubble talk": http://www.spottedratings.com/2013/03/abc-true-power-rankings-march-2013.html
And the following week I do the more schedule-focused Upfront Questions: http://www.spottedratings.com/2012/05/2012-upfront-questions-abc.html

Spot said...

If it can stay at 1.6 I would consider it on the bubble. It may get renewed anyway but if it goes back to 1.4 I would definitely cancel it. 1.4 with its most compatible lead-in and no real competition just doesn't cut it for me. I would renew all the comedies (except Happy Endings) before getting to BoP.

Spot said...

Thanks. Looking forward to it!

Spot said...

Were there any freshman hits this season?

I haven't adjusted my expectations low enough.

Spot said...

Revolution and The Following early in their runs maybe.

Spot said...

Arrow was a hit for CW. Albeit, that's equivalent to being a "hit" on most cable channels at this point.


Nothing truly unqualified, though.

Spot said...

At this point, I'd say Arrow and The Following. Honorable mention would go to How to Live With Your Parents (For the Rest of Your Life) and Chicago Fire. Meanwhile, CBS whiffed this season with only Elementary making to a second season. But that's got to be a disappointment since that show is right in their wheelhouse but is getting beaten by Scandal.

Spot said...

I think Body of Proof has to thread the needle very carefully: it needs to stabilize its ratings above a 1.5 while also hoping that ABC doesn't tinker with Dancing with the Stars' scheduling. If it's renewed after dipping to a 1.4, then it's probably an accounting thing that makes the show cheap enough to keep on (e.g. the CA tax credit, overseas sales, etc.).

Spot said...

I agree but I think Revolution has got to earn a honorable mention. Big lead in or not, it is still the 12th highest rated scripted show from broadcasts, with a 2.9 average, so I think not mentioning it here doesn't make much sense. The biggest breakout hit is Scandal though, even if that doesn't qualify as new show for this season (but it sort of is in a way, since it was on for so little time last year).

Spot said...

I may be overly optimistic and be severely disappointed when the upfronts arrive but in my mind the biggest question for BoP is whether or not it warrants a fall spot of if it goes to midseason again. In a perfect world for me, DWTS would be reduced to 2 hours a week, moved away from the voice to sundays as perfect counter programming to all the male stuff that there is going on, and BoP would follow it at 10 for the entire season. Apart from Castle, Mondays and Tuesdays just need a complete revamping (Ouat and Revenge, together with a bunch of new shows should fill in)

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