Thursday, April 4, 2013

April 2013 Best Case/Worst Case


The spring premieres are much less structured than early fall or even early winter, so after much deliberation I decided to simply spread out the spring Best Case/Worst Case posts and keep all the coverage relatively close to the premiere dates. Here are Early March and Late March.




Image How to Live (NEW!) Slot Average
2.22
Slot Orig Avg
Premieres Wednesday, April 3 2.44
Best Case: Took nearly four seasons, but ABC finally found its great fit with Modern Family. Averages a 2.45, holding 70%+ of Modern, and ABC can't resist returning the show to the vaunted slot in season two.

Worst Case:
With a couple other rookie bubble comedies, How to Live isn't getting a mercy renewal, and at a 1.45, holding barely 40% of Modern, it's certainly not getting a deserved renewal.

Likeliest:
I'm still not really sure why Suburgatory didn't pop here, but this seems like another show that could fit well. Premieres a few notches above Subugatory, settles at close to the 1.9ish late-season Suburgatory level. That might be enough for an Apartment 23-esque second season, whether it should be enough or not. 1.90.
Occupants
Suburgatory
2.25 1.92


Image Hannibal (NEW!) Slot Average
1.21
Slot Orig Avg
Premieres Thursday, April 4 0.96
Best Case: Timeslot sucks, but so did Mockingbird Lane's timeslot. Bryan Fuller can attract a crowd for a premiere, and the show has the goods. 2.00 and ultimately NBC's most successful new drama of the season.

Worst Case:
Timeslot sucks. And by "sucks" I mean "suuuuuuuuuuucks." Airing after Go On, it actually has an even worse situation than Do No Harm! 0.80 and out.

Likeliest:
Did I mention the timeslot sucks? It's NBC, it's the toughest 10:00 slot, and it's after Go On. But there are some very favorable reviews, and the concept may well be able to attract attention. It's gotta start better than Do No Harm did. At least I hope so. There are a lot of reasons to go in both directions, but timeslot ultimately trumps show here. I'll say a 1.25.
Occupants
Rock Center
1.02 1.12
Do No Harm
0.80 0.97


Image Ready for Love (NEW!) Slot Average
1.98
Slot Orig Avg
Premieres Tuesday, April 9 1.81
Best Case: Dating shows are back, if last season of The Bachelor was any indication. And this one brings something fresh and new to the genre. (What that is, I don't actually know...) Plus a Voice lead-in? Sign me up. 2.75, tying The Bachelor.

Worst Case:
Well, it does air after The Voice, but that's about all this terrible show has going for it. Its half hours go about like how the post-Voice flops have broken down the last two weeks: 1.8 -> 1.2 -> 1.0 -> 1.0. That's a 1.25, math majors.

Likeliest:
In case it isn't clear, I haven't done a lot of homework on this show. They're pushing the Eva Longoria angle so hard that they really ought to have her just host the show. I'm giving it a 1.65. That wouldn't be a great post-Voice number, but if they renewed Fashion Star...
Occupants
Go On/TNN
1.75 1.52
Parenthood
1.83 1.78
Smash
0.94 1.12


Image Oh Sit! Slot Average
Premieres Monday, April 15 0.46
Best Case: It averaged about a 0.4 in the summer, and the spring isn't as low-viewed as the summer! An even 0.39!!!

Worst Case:
Lots of its viewers also watch The Voice, and they're not bailing on that to watch freaking musical chairs. 0.22.

Likeliest:
It'll drop from last summer, but its surprising compatibility with the local programming lead-ins will keep it from becoming totally embarrassing by CW filler standards. 0.31.
Slot Orig Avg
0.47
0.39Occupants
90210
y2y Label
flop0.49 0.46
The Carrie Diaries
True2 Sitch
0.46 -15%0.48 0.49
2011-12 Slot
Wednesday 8:00


The Family Tools (NEW!) Slot Average
1.83
Slot Orig Avg
Premieres Wednesday, May 1, Maybe? 1.87
Best Case: It gets on the air on May 1, and it actually has a rather good cast for a show that's been buried like this, so it's able to get close to low-end The Neighbors numbers. 1.35. But it's still axed.

Worst Case:
It's held to the summer and manages just a 0.65 after repeats. Or worse yet, it never airs at all.

Likeliest:
ABC has not mentioned this show in quite awhile, so I'm honestly not sure if it's even getting on the air. This average is based on the assumption that it premieres May 1 and will mostly air during the summer. 0.90. With much of the cast already in other pilots, there's virtually no chance this makes it.
Occupants
The Neighbors
1.81 1.78

4 comments:

Spot said...

Save Me wasn't cancelled before production was completed. Its non-appearance on NBC's schedule suggests it has been pushed into summer, or outright won't air, but the show is in the can.

I find it amazing how many people seem to think NBC pulled the plug on it entirely.

Spot said...

I haven't seen any announcements about how the show went back into production after its search for a new showrunner, so it feels like it's de facto canceled unless NBC pulls a Terra Nova with it. I like the concept (even if the premise is really just making me miss Wonderfalls), but if the episodes are in the can why not do a limited run after The Voice this month?


At best I feel like it's another piece of burn-off theater.

Spot said...

I agree with everything basically. The Family Tools is so dead that I wish they wouldn't make Suburgatory air surrounded by repeats just for the sake of having 3 episodes of a dead comedy in the regular season. I can't see a scenario in which Hannibal gets a 2.0 average, I really can't, but who knows, maybe I will start being proven wrong when the numbers for the pilot come in today. As for How to Live, it did far better than I expected yesterday, but opinions over internet don't appear to be very favourable, for all that is worth, so we need to see if it holds in week 2 or not. Regardless, I think ABC really needs to stick with one comedy block on Wednesday next year that is stable. If Parents works like it did last night, as unlikely as it may be, I say keep the lineup with Middle/Sub/MF/HTL next year all year and premiere the new potential thing elsewhere. Stop changing the slots of the comedies inside the block and stop airing new ones mixed with repeats for the sake of late season premieres. If HTL flops, order a new thing for the slot but keep it there (unless it flops, obviously). Do 24 episodes for all 4 and that's it.

Spot said...

Oh I really have no clue about the reality shows... Ready for Love looks like another Taste/Splash that will significantly overachieve on the first night and then come back to earth, even though the extent of the comeback will always be smaller than in those cases due to the voice

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