Friday, March 1, 2013

Early March 2013 Best Case/Worst Case

The spring premieres are much less structured than early fall or even early winter, so after much deliberation I decided to simply spread out the spring Best Case/Worst Case posts and keep all the coverage relatively close to the premiere dates. (Really, I'm just holding out hope that NBC moves Hannibal.) So there will be one post today, one in mid-March and one at the beginning of April. Since spring has lots of repeats and less structure, I'm not doing the bigger picture "The Basics" stuff. Just keeping this to a look at the individual shows.

Image Red Widow (NEW!) Slot Average
Slot Orig Avg
Premieres Sunday, March 3 1.35
Best Case: Last season, the spring Sunday 10/9c offering (GCB) was a better fit and ended up stronger than the fall offering (Pan Am). Red Widow, similarly, is a better fit (and stronger show) than 666 Park Ave. Holds basically all of Revenge at 1.90 and gets renewed.

Worst Case:
Revenge is bleeding, and it'll keep bleeding, so even managing 666 Park numbers is a stretch. 1.20 and dunzo.

I actually buy the Pan Am/GCB parallel somewhat. 666 Park Ave (like Pan Am) was the riskier proposition, but Red Widow (like GCB) is more in the network's wheelhouse. It wasn't quite enough for GCB, but it was certainly a close call. I think that's about where Red Widow ends up too. 1.65.
666 Park Ave
1.51 1.30

Image Celebrity Apprentice Slot Average
Premieres Sunday, March 3 5.81
Best Case: Presumed dead franchises like The Bachelor and The Biggest Loser have had pretty solid winters. Celebrity Apprentice is also able to stop the bleeding. 2.02.

Worst Case:
All-star seasons have struggled lately, this show was already fading fast, and the Donald's Twitter antics during election season were a turn-off. Down another 26% to 1.50, but sadly that may still not be enough to end this thing, since it's on NBC.

I suck at taking the public's temperature with reality shows. I have no idea if this is a Bachelor/Biggest Loser situation or if it's just in complete meltdown mode. So I'm hedging and expecting to miss big time: -13% to a 1.76.
Slot Orig Avg
Sports: Sunday Night Football
y2y Label
-28% marginal8.13 7.18
True2 Sitch
1.98 +2%
2011-12 Slot
Sunday 9:00

Image Fashion Star Slot Average
Premieres Friday, March 8 1.33
Best Case: With Kitchen Nighmares weak and Undercover Boss mostly in reruns, I guess maybe this show can eke out a low-1's demo? 1.11.

Worst Case:
It got a 1.3 in its one airing without a decent lead-in, and that was on a Tuesday. 10 months later, what little audience there was won't be showing up on a Friday. A The Job-esque 0.70.

Like Fashion Star, season one of Touch got a late-season airing without its big lead-in, scored a 1.3, and has translated that to about a 0.7 in season two on Friday. Maybe unscripted is a bit better fit on Friday, but certainly not by much. 0.80 and done for.
Slot Orig Avg
Dateline Fri
y2y Label
flop1.25 1.48
True2 Sitch
1.43 +9%
2011-12 Slot
Tuesday 10:00

Image Hell's Kitchen Slot Average
Premieres Tuesday, March 12 1.38
Best Case: Hell's Kitchen has always made the regular season transition better than most of the summer franchises, it was hot last summer, and it has a head start on the return of The Voice. Nearly holds its summer numbers at a 2.50.

Worst Case:
It's up against NCIS and two reality programs, and the other Ramsay show Kitchen Nightmares is having a very weak season. Sheds about as much as Kitchen Nightmares to a 1.85.

It's not like this show is totally unused to facing reality competition, since that's pretty much all there is in the summer. With The Voice around, I'm guessing it'll be below what it did in the summer, but it should still lift up Fox Tuesday considerably. 2.20.
Slot Orig Avg
Raising Hope
y2y Label
-3% solid1.62 1.59
Ben and Kate
True2 Sitch
2.77 -7%1.34 1.31
2011-12 Slot
Mon/Tue 8:00 (summer)


Spot said...

I wondered if you were going to do a weekly roll-out of BC/WC starting next week...

In any event, I think Celebrity Apprentice may start strong but peter out. That's doubly true if the "wrong" all-star's kicked off. And even though there's probably a Question for Red Widow for Sunday, I'll say that I wish this had launched in the fall when Revenge was stronger.

I'm most looking forward to seeing if Hell's Kitchen, which should definitely improve on Fox's history in the slot this season, will help New Girl and The Mindy Project.

And NBC should most definitely move Hannibal from Thursdays at 10. Their initial plan at the start of the season (a quarantined night for lower-rated shows) was the right instinct. If they wanted to course-correct, they should have blown up the night.

Spot said...

Very glad to have this back. I agree with you on Red Widow. I think it has a chance at renewal, something that Zero Hour certainly didn't have, but it will certainly have to fight it out. In the end, I think ABC will renew for sure 1, possibly 2, but not 3 out of Nashville/Red Widow/Body of Proof. So it will have a hard, yet not impossible battle. Who knows, it might even do well and help the night overall. It will depend a lot on how Revenge does. I think it has a chance at a real increase when it comes back, as the last episode was easily the best well received episode of the entire season. I don't particularly like the idea of a 2 hour premiere, sounds overkill for a new show in the middle of winter. But let's see.

As for reality, I don't really follow its ratings closely enough to comment. I do think Hell Kitchen will improve on the night, and hopefully can help New Girl a bit. The NBC Pair I am very meh, don't even have an opinion. But I do agree that NBC's schedule for spring is all wrong! This is how I would do it:

The Voice

The Voice

Fashion Star
Law and Order: SVU
Chicago Fire

Parks and Recreation
The Office
Go On

Rock Center

The Apprentice
The Apprentice

The New Normal and Whitney should be burn off before the voice and fashion star come back. Hannibal would have a nice shot paired with a very compatible show, which would also receive a boost from the voice itself, whereas airing on a timeslot with almost no competition. I don't know what NBC will do to the voice lead-in in most of the weeks, since go on and new normal are almost out of originals, seems very stupid to me. Go On still has a shot at next season, so they are better served giving it the office lead-in, which should do decent in its final run, instead of wasting it in the certain to be canceled 1600 Penn. Grimm is very good for fridays yes, but now it is needed elsewhere, so they might just stick with the magazines lineup which does decent enough and be done with it.

Spot said...

I agree with your predictions for Hell's Kitchen & Red Widow. However, I think you're being too optimistic for Celeb Apprentice & Fashion Star. I expect FS to be ariund your worst case. CA will probably be way below your worst case, though. I expect around 1.1/1.2 because of the DWTS & Survivor All-Star collapses.

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