Late March 2013 Best Case/Worst Case

The spring premieres are much less structured than early fall or even early winter, so after much deliberation I decided to simply spread out the spring Best Case/Worst Case posts and keep all the coverage relatively close to the premiere dates. This is the second one, although NBC's recent schedule changes made it a little lighter than expected (and the final one in two weeks a bit more exciting). Here's early March.

One note for this time's DWTS and Voice entries: the demo average under the icon is for the Monday airings of the year-ago spring season. I included the Monday averages from this fall in the timeslot column on the right.

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		Dancing with the Stars	Slot Average
		Premieres March 18	2.13
		Best Case: The show was just temporarily derailed by an ill-advised all-star season last fall. This time it's got a one-week head start on The Voice. Ties The Bachelor's pre-finale average at 2.71 on Monday, plus a 2.65 on Tuesday. Worst Case: Three straight seasons have dropped at least 20%. This franchise is done as a major ABC player, and this season's the coup de grace. Drops 31% year-to-year, mirroring the fall season, to a 2.05/2.00. Likeliest: Prior to last season, DWTS had gotten in the habit of doing slightly better in the spring than in the fall. I'll say we revert to that trend to a tiny extent, because a premiere that won't face The Voice gives the show a better than usual chance to start off well. 2.30 Monday/2.25 Tuesday.	Slot Orig Avg
			2.15
2.98			Occupants
			Dancing with the Stars Fall
y2y	Label
-36%	hit		2.26	1.99
			The Bachelor
True2	Sitch
3.14	-5%		2.71	2.54
2011-12 Slot
Monday/Tuesday

		Splash (NEW!)	Slot Average
			1.83
			Slot Orig Avg
		Premieres March 19	1.83
Best Case: Other fast-declining reality franchises like The Apprentice and Wife Swap have found a second wind by adding celeb contestants. This is kind of like a Celebrity Wipeout, so... why not? Manages a 1.90. Worst Case: On the other hand, the celeb-driven franchises have been declining fast of late, from Celebrity Apprentice to Dancing with the Stars. And this isn't exactly a top-notch crowd of stars. Just a 1.00. Likeliest: This may be another Celebrity Wife Swap situation, where it premieres well and then drops big (mostly because The Voice will be in the slot in week two). Normally I'd give it about CWS' recent mid-1's level, but throw in The Voice in week two and I'm taking it down another notch to 1.30.			Occupants
			Dancing with the Stars Fall
			2.03	1.92
			The Taste
			1.78	1.64
			Celebrity Wife Swap
			1.95	2.08

		The Voice	Slot Average
		Premieres March 25	3.31
		Best Case: Last season finished very well, and the people bailing on American Idol on a weekly basis are looking for an alternative. Basically equals the fall numbers at 4.30/4.00. Worst Case: Shakira and Usher are big names, but they're just not as good on TV as Xtina and Cee Lo. Plus, a large chunk of the aud has no idea the show is back because nobody's watched NBC in 2.5 months. 3.30/3.05, and even more panic sets in in peacock-land. Likeliest: As much as American Idol is struggling, NBC may be expecting The Voice to top Idol during its blind audition weeks. Maybe this season disappoints a bit early on, but it finishes strong because the competition will clear out with the end of the regular season. 3.80 on Monday, 3.50 on Tuesday.	Slot Orig Avg
			3.52
4.82			Occupants
			The Voice Fall
y2y	Label
+5%	megahit		4.38	3.78
			The Biggest Loser
True2	Sitch
4.67	+3%		2.21	2.17
2011-12 Slot
Monday/Tuesday