Monday, March 18, 2013

The Question, Monday 3/18/13: Will the Premiere Dance Past the Finale?

For the first time since The Voice became a Monday/Tuesday staple, ABC's Dancing with the Stars gets a chance to premiere its season before The Voice returns. But it'll still go up against a reality event on NBC: the finale of a somewhat resurgent season of The Biggest Loser. Will the premiere dance past the finale? That's The Question for Monday, March 18, 2013.

DWTS Monday Recent Seasons P/Avg/F The Biggest Loser This Season/Finales
5.3/4.65/4.7 (Spring 2011)
4.0/3.28/3.5 (Fall 2011)
3.5/2.98/2.9 (Spring 2012)
2.5/2.26/2.7 (Fall 2012)
3.0 (Sunday premiere, 1/6/13)
2.28 (average thru 3/11/13)
2.0 (last week, 3/11/13)
29%, 7%, 23%, 0% (recent finale spikes)

Historically, The Biggest Loser has grown considerably on finale night, but that's slowed down a bit in the last few seasons. The fact that it was a bit deflated last week (against the high-rated The Bachelor finale) may set it up for big percentage growth tonight.

As for Dancing with the Stars, as fast as it has been collapsing of late, I give it a pretty good chance to be steady with the fall premiere tonight, simply because there's no The Voice in the mix. That show has surely been a big part of what has ailed Dancing of late. If it can't post a decent result tonight, we can officially begin the "phasing out of DWTS" discussion.

I'm inclined to give Dancing with the Stars a slight edge over The Biggest Loser tonight, but the unpredictability is mostly on the DWTS side. Maybe it really is just a dead show.

Spread: Dancing with the Stars beats The Biggest Loser by 0.05 points.

(Reply with "Dancing with the Stars" if you think DWTS BEATS TBL. Reply with "The Biggest Loser" if you think TBL TIES or BEATS DWTS. The result will be based on finals rounded to one decimal point.)

No entries accepted after 6:00am ET the morning after the date in the headline. If editing your pick, please leave a separate comment.


Spot said...

The Biggest Loser. I think DWTS really is just a dead show walking.

Spot said...

DWTS. But very close. And it will collapse very soon. ABC has to send it to Sundays, it is their only option at this point

Spot said...

The Biggest Loser.

Spot said...

Dancing with the Stars. I'm still a seller on NBC, at least for another week. Plus I think CBS' sitcoms will hurt TBL more.

Unknown said...

Dancing With the Stars. Personally, I think 2.3 for TBL and 2.4 for DWTS

Spot said...

Biggest Loser.

Spot said...

Nicholas Nuccio: "Dancing With the Stars. Personally, I think 2.3 for TBL and 2.4 for DWTS"

Spot said...

...DWTS by a mile

Spot said...

Dancing With the Stars by a hair.

Spot said...

Dancing- 2.7 to 2.3

Spot said...

I think I'll regret this, but DWTS at 2.5 over TBL at 2.4

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