Wednesday, March 13, 2013

The Climate, Weeks 23/24


Week Ending TPUT y2y bc y2y LeAv y2y
202/10/201333.9 -4% 8.4 -20% 2.12 -15%
212/17/201333.2 -3% 6.6 -25% 2.00 -21%
222/24/201333.9 -3% 8.3 -9% 2.11 -11%
233/3/201332.6 -4% 6.4 -25% 1.97 -19%
243/10/201332.3 -3% 6.3 -15% 1.99 -9%


Week Ending TPUTy2d y2dy2y bcy2d y2dy2y LAy2d y2dy2y
19/30/201232.4 -6% 9.2 -16% 2.50 -15%
510/28/201233.3 -3% 8.8 -10% 2.31 -13%
911/25/201233.5 -3% 8.8 -9% 2.26 -12%
1312/23/201233.4 -2% 8.5 -6% 2.24 -10%
171/20/201333.4 -3% 8.3 -8% 2.20 -10%
212/17/201333.6 -3% 8.3 -9% 2.19 -11%
222/24/201333.6 -3% 8.3 -9% 2.19 -11%
233/3/201333.6 -3% 8.2 -9% 2.18 -12%
243/10/201333.5 -3% 8.2 -10% 2.17 -12%

The between-Voice sadness continues for broadcast TV, although week 24 was the first negative single digit week in league average in the last six weeks. (Part of this was Fox airing the Tuesday American Idol in this week but in a different week last year.) With most shows as of this writing holding up fairly well against daylight saving, we'll see if the comparisons look a little better in week 25.

There was some ado made when Nielsen's numbers from week 24 revealed Fox had passed NBC to take over the #2 network ranking. In my Live+SD only numbers, I still have NBC slightly ahead of Fox (as in by two hundredths of a point), but it seems perfectly reasonable that NBC fell behind in the Most Currents because their heaviest lifter Sunday Night Football gets such a tiny DVR boost. There's a solid chance Fox will make the pass in Live+SD by the end of week 25.

Another significant network-related milestone since last we spoke: during week 23, NBC's original entertainment average dropped behind ABC's, so they're finally back in fourth place there (though perhaps not permanently). In the 11 weeks since The Voice finale week, NBC's relative standing with entertainment series has dropped a whooping 13 points (105 -> 92) while Fox is still charging fast in the other direction (93 -> 105).

We'll look a bit more at the network races at the end of The Voice's hiatus in two weeks.

Click to expand for more on the "climate" numbers used herein.

TPUT - This is an ESTIMATED average of how many people are watching TV from 8:00 to 11:00.
  • I derive these numbers by adding up all the ratings and dividing by all the shares in each of the 42 half-hours each week. That means there is some error relative to the numbers Nielsen actually releases. Sadly we don't regularly have access to those. I always advise not to rely heavily on these numbers for any one show in any one week, but the hope is that the error is minimized across a 42-timeslot sample every week.
  • I include the Old Methodology adjustment, which makes the number more like a measurement of how many people watch primetime programming Live + SD, rather than a measurement of how many people watch any TV (including old DVR stuff) from 8:00 to 11:00. This makes the number perhaps less intuitive in a vacuum, but it's pretty much a wash when making week-to-week and year-to-year comparisons, which is what we're really interested in.
bc - This is an average of how many people are watching national broadcast TV from 8:00 to 11:00.
  • This does NOT include the 10:00 adjustment used in the True2 calculation which attempts to account for Fox/CW programming and stronger cable. Again, that perhaps hurts the number in a vacuum, because the 10:00 numbers being used only include three networks, so I'm averaging timeslots that are somewhat apples-to-oranges. But again, it's a wash when making comparisons because I treat it that way all the time. It would not really change week-to-week or year-to-year comparisons, and that's what I mostly care about.
  • Another important note here is that these numbers include the preliminary averages for "sustaining" programming like presidential debates and commercial-free benefit concerts whose numbers are typically omitted from traditional Nielsen averages. I might eventually omit these from this particular calculation, but they're needed on my spreadsheets to 1) make PUT calculations in those timeslots and 2) create a competition number for the entertainment shows that air against them.
LeAv - This is a measurement of how many people watch the average moment of original entertainment series programming on the big four networks. Meaning, no sports, no reruns, no specials, no movies, no sustaining programming included.

Note: Beginning with week 9, all numbers compare against the next numbered week in the 2011-12 season. So week 9 compares against week 10 of 2011-12, etc. This was done to make the comparisons more calendar-friendly. See here for more on that.

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