NBC True Power Rankings, March 2013

It's time for another edition of the True Power Rankings! I line up every entertainment program in broadcast primetime by network/category using my timeslot metric True2, offering my take on the ratings strength of the shows.

As on the Weekly True Power Rankings, these True2 and A18-49 numbers are averages of the last third of the season's episodes to date rounded up (and, new in this edition, excluding most season finales). The number of episodes in the average is listed under "Counted Eps." These numbers are all through March 3.

Other March True Power Rankings: ABC | CBS | NBC | Fox | CW

---

---

NBC Comedies		True2	A18-49	Counted Eps	Eps
The NBC Thursday Old Guard
1	The Office	2.24	2.03	6	16
2	Parks and Recreation	1.86	1.60	5	15
3	30 Rock	1.45	1.33	4	11

Even with the recent adjustment to remove hugely inflated finales, 30 Rock's above average run leading up to the end still makes it look like the #3 NBC comedy. That's... not good.

NBC Comedies		True2	A18-49	Counted Eps	Eps
Blerg.
4	Up All Night	1.37	1.10	4	11
5	Go On	1.35	1.33	6	16
6	Whitney	1.34	1.18	4	11
7	Guys with Kids	1.34	1.12	6	17
8	Community	1.31	1.15	2	4
9	The New Normal	1.30	1.15	6	17

I have to admit I'm rather surprised at the confidence with which some people rule on some of the shows out of this mess. TVBTN is sure that Guys with Kids and The New Normal are totally dead and that Community and Whitney and Gooooon have a chance. I have trouble believing that the less than one-tenth difference among these shows amounts to a two smiley face difference, especially since Go On and Whitney (with local programming) likely have better lead-ins.

I maintain that they could still do almost anything. If they go heavy multi-cam or if they really want to butter up Jimmy Fallon? I wouldn't rule out Guys with Kids! If they really want to be in business with Ryan Murphy? I don't think The New Normal is much of a reach, at least not compared to the rest of this gang.

However, two observations. The first: I do believe Go On probably still has the edge out of this crowd. It ain't on merit. If anything, being in the same ratings vicinity after having a The Voice lead-in for that long makes it worse. It's about PR. A cancellation of Go On is an admission that the post-Olympics launch was totally useless and that a large part of the "NBC is back" fall narrative was a total fraud. Now, those things are true. But if you cancel Go On, there's really nowhere to hide. I can't see Go On dying unless it becomes significantly weaker than the rest of the "bubble," and while you can say a lot of things about Go On, you can't say that.

Second observation: NBC doesn't truly need these shows. As I said a few weeks ago, don't judge NBC based on a schedule being entirely propped up by two shows, but also don't judge NBC based on a schedule with five of their top shows not airing. NBC can put together a fall schedule without an exorbitant amount of new product and without many (or really even any) of these shows. Also keep in mind that a large chunk of this hellish between-Voice period won't be a problem next year thanks to the Winter Olympics.

It reminds me a bit of the Fox drama bubble in 2011; a bunch of shows were converging at a certain level and we thought that must mean "it's the bubble" and half those shows would survive. But the reality was that level was awful. Only Fringe survived, while The Chicago Code, Lie to Me and Human Target all got the axe. This situation is similar. It's a lot of shows, and it's not a totally egregious level, I guess, but it's still quite bad. The carnage could (and should) be severe.

Point is: they could get by with a face-saving Go On renewal and nothing else. But I'm guessing there'll be at least one more. Right now, I would lean toward Community because it has such a significant 18-34 edge, but there are no easy answers here.

NBC Comedies		True2	A18-49	Counted Eps	Eps
The Dunzo
10	1600 Penn	1.16	1.00	3	7
11	Animal Practice	1.12	1.15	2	5

---

---

NBC Dramas		True2	A18-49	Counted Eps	Eps
The Fab Five
1	Revolution	2.30	2.73	4	10
2	Chicago Fire	2.12	2.00	6	17
3	Parenthood	1.95	1.86	5	14
4	Law and Order: SVU	1.93	1.58	5	15
5	Grimm	1.92	1.78	4	12

NBC's drama fab five have gone utterly unchallenged by the midseason offerings. If NBC had any hope that they could consider ditching Law and Order: SVU for something newer and less expensive, I believe that hope is pretty well dashed at this point. Its 1.6ish raw demo does not look great, but it is beloved by True2 because it's in a rare slot where all three competing networks are airing hit programs! (Plus it's a good CW hour too.)

I'll talk more about scheduling after we see how Grimm and Revolution return, but I would strongly consider Law and Order: SVU for the troubled Thursday 10/9c slot. Its encores as a quick fill-in for Do No Harm actually did better there than they generally have on Wednesday.

NBC Dramas		True2	A18-49	Counted Eps	Eps
The Midseason Launch!
6	Deception	1.17	1.20	3	8
7	Smash	1.09	0.90	1	3
8	Do No Harm	0.91	0.70	1	2

I'm not as fascinated by failure as most TV pundits, because once a show is clearly not going to make it, I just don't find its week-to-week ratings to be worth much mention. But the Smash Watch is kind of hard to look away from, because it's a collision between truly horrifying ratings and a great deal of hype, PR, pedigree and expectation. It's hard to deny that Smash should be pushed off the schedule right now, but this is a much more complicated situation than Do No Harm. If Tuesday's 0.8 demo can convince NBC that Smash needs to go somewhere else and Hannibal needs to be on Tuesday, then let's do it. If not, I'm all for Smash dropping as far as it needs to drop.

---

---

NBC Unscripted		True2	A18-49	Counted Eps	Eps
1	The Voice Mon	3.50	4.00	5	14
2	The Voice Tue	3.36	3.64	5	15
3	The Biggest Loser	2.07	2.10	3	9
4	Celebrity Apprentice	1.66	1.70	1	1
5	Take It All	1.57	1.30	2	6
6	Dateline Fri	1.54	1.29	8	24
7	Off Their Rockers	1.43	1.33	4	12
8	Dateline Sun	1.30	1.30	1	3
9	Rock Center	1.27	1.04	7	20

There's football, there's The Voice, there's Revolution and there's Chicago Fire. That's all that's separating The Biggest Loser from being the top True2 show on NBC. But I would not give it any more exposure than this. This Voice filler role is a good one for the show. And hey, if The Voice really struggles with the second-stringers or if there are future logistical problems with the two cycles a year, you could hold this and use it to fill that space after the Olympics.

Off Their Rockers has dropped a lot after a decent start, but I'm not counting it out yet, mostly because of its repeat value. It's become a common piece of short-term filler for the net. (And at this number, it's still ahead of all the "bubble" comedies.)