ABC True Power Rankings, March 2013

It's time for another edition of the True Power Rankings! I line up every entertainment program in broadcast primetime by network/category using my timeslot metric True2, offering my take on the ratings strength of the shows.

As on the Weekly True Power Rankings, these True2 and A18-49 numbers are averages of the last third of the season's episodes to date rounded up (and, new in this edition, excluding most season finales). The number of episodes in the average is listed under "Counted Eps." These numbers are all through March 3.

Other March True Power Rankings: ABC | CBS | NBC | Fox | CW

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ABC Comedies		True2	A18-49	Counted Eps	Eps
The Elite
1	Modern Family	4.36	3.98	6	17
2	The Middle	2.37	2.23	6	16

ABC Comedies		True2	A18-49	Counted Eps	Eps
The Actual Middle
3	Suburgatory	1.89	2.02	5	15
4	The Neighbors	1.88	1.77	6	18
5	Last Man Standing	1.72	1.42	5	15
6	Malibu Country	1.48	1.24	5	15

ABC's bubble comedies aren't just interesting because of renewal/cancellation questions. The real question for these shows is the future scheduling. Maybe Suburgatory and The Neighbors "deserve" renewal, but ABC certainly wants to avoid another Happy Endings/Apartment 23 situation where they're moved elsewhere and completely collapse. For now, I couldn't rule out one or both shows being moved to the 9/8c hour on Friday, reigniting the two-hour TGIF. Paul Lee may be particularly motivated if Last Man Standing and Malibu Country hold onto their higher-end results from last Friday in the closing weeks of their seasons.

Depending on what happens with Suburgatory in its move to 8:30 at season's end, ABC may opt to leave Suburgs in the 8:30 slot, but I'd rather have newbies on Wednesday than have to lead one out of a Suburgatory or a The Neighbors on another night.

One way to evaluate ABC's new TGIF is to compare it to the old TGIF. At some point (maybe not until April or so) I will put out some more A18-49+ numbers dating back to 2003-04, and there will be more fanfare around that at that point. For now, I just have very, very rough approximations. I get the sense that Last Man Standing (68) and Malibu Country (65) are stronger than TGIF in its last couple years with Hope and Faith and declining shows like George Lopez and 8 Simple Rules, but weaker than the first season of Hope and Faith in 2003-04 (which appears to have been in the mid-70s or so). How strong was TGIF in its truly thriving years? Was mid-70's the norm for TGIF anchors? Don't really have a sense of that. So this limited comparison doesn't help too much. ABC probably hoped for better than what TGIF was doing in the last couple years before ABC nuked the block completely.

What will help those shows, for comparison purposes, is Happy Endings totally bombing on the night. And that's almost certainly going to happen.

Overall, I'm pretty sure a bare minimum of two of these shows are coming back, quite possibly three, and maybe even all four. Even if my Friday adjustment isn't quite enough, I'm still fairly confident Malibu Country is at the back of the pack among these four.

ABC Comedies		True2	A18-49	Counted Eps	Eps
The... Probably Dunzo?
7	Happy Endings	1.30	1.22	5	13
8	Apartment 23	1.16	0.98	4	11

While everyone's favorite bear has done some scheduling tea leaf reading on Happy Endings, I just want to urge you to keep in mind that for pretty much the whole fall he called the show a "toss-up" because of Sony/syndication even with very bad ratings. So if the show gets axed, it'll be worth re-evaluating some of that fundamental thinking. The idea that networks will consistently make huge reaches purely for syndication has pretty much proliferated, even though I tend to think it's based on a small and somewhat shaky sample. I'm not as laser-focused on renewals as the bear, but this may be something worth further discussion later on.

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ABC Dramas		True2	A18-49	Counted Eps	Eps
The Elite
1	Grey's Anatomy	3.25	2.97	6	16
2	Scandal	2.73	2.70	5	15
3	Once Upon a Time	2.12	2.40	5	15

During the fall Best Case/Worst Case season, there were a lot of shows that I thought had potential to take the "top 10:00 show on broadcast" label. Scandal was not one of them. In a raw numbers sense, it's unlikely to happen, because it's going to need a total meltdown from a The Voice-fueled Revolution. But in a "True" sense, I think we can all agree that this show's the king of that hour right now.

ABC Dramas		True2	A18-49	Counted Eps	Eps
The... Probably Safe?
4	Castle	1.84	2.05	6	16
5	Nashville	1.84	1.84	5	14
6	Revenge	1.66	1.86	5	14

Let's skip the "Sunday numbers are deflated" discussion from past editions and just say that Once and Revenge should probably have another 0.2 True points or so. That puts Revenge into the Nashville/Castle range (that is, "probably safe") and Once is obviously still safe but increasingly disappointing.

So does ABC need to blow up their struggling Sunday? Unless they can pull of something like Dancing with the Stars on this night, I'm just not sure there's any good way to blow this thing up, since Sunday is an increasingly perilous night in general. Once Upon a Time and Revenge may not even be viable a year from now, but it's not like they're overflowing with alternatives. I'm guessing they'll have to roughly stay the course, but my two suggestions are: 1) move Revenge to 10/9c and put the new thing at 9:00; and 2) don't air them during event season!

Quick notes on the other two: Castle has suffered a bit in a True2 sense because 1) its lead-in is bigger (even if less compatible); and 2) Monday Night Football and Revolution are gone, so it gets much less competition credit. I think it will be OK nonetheless. Nashville had what looked like a very marginal point on February 27 but had been looking pretty much good to go prior to that point. I'm willing to shrug that one off, but it was not a good way to head into a long hiatus. Its return will be of interest.

ABC Dramas		True2	A18-49	Counted Eps	Eps
The Mostly Dunzo
7	Private Practice	1.40	1.18	4	12
8	Red Widow	1.37	1.50	1	1
9	Body of Proof	1.32	1.20	1	2
10	Last Resort	1.25	1.12	5	13
11	Zero Hour	1.10	1.00	1	3
12	666 Park Ave	1.07	1.23	3	9

The only show of this bunch that I wouldn't count out just yet is Body of Proof. It looked real bad when it premiered to a 1.2 after The Bachelor, but the 1.2 after The Taste in week two was actually a much less awful performance. I think you can now at least make the case that it's close enough that it could conceivably get bumped up to a bubble level if Dancing with the Stars does well. That may not sound like much, but it's a better place than where the network's other midseason dramas sit right now.

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ABC Unscripted		True2	A18-49	Counted Eps	Eps
1	The Bachelor	2.73	2.80	4	10
2	Celebrity Wife Swap	2.56	2.40	1	1
3	Shark Tank	2.33	1.88	6	18
4	Dancing with the Stars Mon Fall	1.89	2.20	3	9
5	Dancing with the Stars Tue Fall	1.74	1.90	3	8
6	20/20	1.60	1.34	9	26
7	Primetime: What Would You Do?	1.55	1.45	2	5
8	America's Funniest Home Videos	1.44	1.54	5	15
9	The Taste	1.44	1.50	2	6
10	Extreme Makeover: Home Edition	1.19	1.10	3	7

Something to watch here is the Celebrity Wife Swap performance on Thursday this spring. My problem with putting unscripted stuff in the Thursday 8/7c slot has always been that unscripted shows take an even larger-than-normal dip against Idol. But Idol is not really Idol anymore. We've already seen Shark Tank reruns hold up OK enough in the slot. And another new drama has gone into and quickly out of the hour. If Wife Swap can perform respectably (at least compared to its next couple Tuesday points, which will come back to earth from the 2.4 premiere), ABC should seriously consider the unscripted route here. And I'm not talking totally in the abstract: there are a few viable routes that could land a reality show here. Shark Tank here, clearing the way for a two-hour Friday comedy block? Maybe even Dancing with the Stars here, another possibility that could get it away from The Voice?