Friday, March 8, 2013

CW True Power Rankings, March 2013

It's time for another edition of the True Power Rankings! I line up every entertainment program in broadcast primetime by network/category using my timeslot metric True2, offering my take on the ratings strength of the shows.

As on the Weekly True Power Rankings, these True2 and A18-49 numbers are averages of the last third of the season's episodes to date rounded up (and, new in this edition, excluding most season finales). The number of episodes in the average is listed under "Counted Eps." These numbers are all through March 3.

Other March True Power Rankings: ABC | CBS | NBC | Fox | CW

The CWTrue2A18-49Counted EpsEps
The Big Three
1The Vampire Diaries1.391.20515

The CW's Arrow/Supernatural Wednesday will become an interesting site for the "if it ain't broke, don't fix it" debate. Arrow is a very rare CW show with true lead-in potential. My usual policy is that the pairings most likely to stay together are the "good not great" ones, and I'm pretty sure this one is "great" by the current CW standards. So I think they'd be best off airing something new after Arrow. But Arrow is not such a runaway hit that I have extreme confidence in that position. (In other words, it's still probably not that much stronger than a local programming lead-in.)

The CWTrue2A18-49Counted EpsEps
Still In Play
4Hart of Dixie0.580.57616
5Beauty and the Beast0.550.60514
6America's Next Top Model0.550.50411
9The Carrie Diaries0.450.4337

May not really look it from this list, but I'm confident Hart of Dixie has a significant lead on the rest of this group, if for no other reason than it's a lot less schizophrenic. It's getting hard to imagine it'll fall behind everything else in this group.

Beauty and the Beast is probably not as safe as it appears; its number is inflated by the two 0.7's at the beginning of the five episodes being averaged, and it's since returned to 0.5. But it's not dead either. It'll be a down-to-the-wire job like The Secret Circle. 

Nikita has been similarly schizophrenic. It looked like it had gotten to "legitimately in the mix" levels when it was getting 0.5, but it's fallen back to a 0.3 for the last two weeks, which I don't think is enough to put it "legitimately in the mix" even with a Friday adjustment. I'm morbidly kind of hoping it sticks at 0.3 because I'm very invested in seeing true tests of the importance of syndication.

That leaves The Carrie Diaries, which is not looking good lately. At this point in time, I would guess it's the most likely cancel of the bunch, but I still give it a chance because it might be a good Hart of Dixie companion on the inevitable Surrender Night.

I'm guessing only one show of the four bubblers gets the axe, but it wouldn't shock me if it were zero or two.

The CWTrue2A18-49Counted EpsEps
The Dunzo
7Gossip Girl0.470.4339
10Emily Owens M.D.0.370.36513

Gossip Girl is another show like 30 Rock from the NBC post that is still somewhat inflated even after I take out the finale, because it had a very good penultimate episode too. Really, it was around an 0.40 for most of the season.


Spot said...

Assuming The Originals gets a pick-up, I could see Supernatural following it because the former is technically an unproven show. But if The CW thinks that the spin-off would be more potent than Arrow, then stick with Arrow/Supernatural and place something like The Selection or The Tomorrow People after The Originals.

Hart of Dixie's always felt safe to me out of all of the network's "bubble" shows. Even with Top Model relegated to a summer slot, I still think a bubble show is going to get popped. Beauty & the Beast feels the most vulnerable, followed by The Carrie Diaries (only because of the Dixie/Diaries possibility) and Nikita, although if Nikita drops to a 0.2 I would revise that.

Spot said...

My numbers:
1. The Vampire Diaries: 2.29
2. Supernatural: 1.50
3. Arrow: 1.36
4. Nikita: 1.31

4. Gossip Girl: .0.99 (This is just due to the final two episodes)
5. Hart of Dixie: 0.92

6. Beauty and the Beast: 0.71

7. The Carrie Diaries: 0.53
8. 90210: 0.50
9. Emily Owens: 0.50
10. Cult: 0.39

So, really, I believe Nikita is totally safe (I am a big believer in syndication resilience, although I know that you feel it is excessively regarded), and so is Dixie, to a smaller extent. Carrie Diaries is bear-food and the only thing that has some short of bubble status for me is beauty and the beast but even that should be canceled IMO, although it is really hard to tell so far.

Spot said...

Also, my schedule would be:

The Tomorrow People
The Hundred

The Selection
Hart of Dixie


The Vampire Diaries
The Originals


- i am a big believer in leaving Wednesdays alone, i think there are synergies arising from both shows being together and i don't think arrow is as big as it looks
- dont waste money on a 10th weekly show. use that money to agressively promote an all new monday night genre show with big names for the genre fans (Mark Pellegrino/ Henry Ian Cusick) and to promote the selection.
- the originals is pretty much self promoted. All tvd's fans will be aware of it by then and it is not like tvd's fans haven't given a shot to all tvd's leadouts in the last 3 years, so they will check this one out.

- for midseason, greenlight oxygen, as it fits basically with any show on the schedule. send the lowest performing show to friday if it is a veteran (ex. hart of dixie) or yank it from the schedule if it is a new one.

Spot said...

Is anyone considering The CW's future programming when making these decisions? I looked at their pilots on Deadline, and it's almost all genre/period drama stuff. It's turning into almost a sci-fi (not Syfy) channel. That makes me think that Hart of Dixie and TCD are in big trouble, because they don't fit. Nikita fits. Beauty and the Beast fits. Two "girl trouble" series don't.

Spot said...

What numbers are these? I'm a huge Nikita fan and I'm curious why Nikita is in 4th place on your list.

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