Thursday, March 28, 2013

The Question, Thursday 3/28/13: Will the Idol Lead-in Be Raising Ratings?


Tonight is the first of two straight Thursdays with a post-American Idol sitcom tryout. Arguably the one next week with New Girl and The Mindy Project is more interesting, but we probably won't visit that one since there are even bigger goings-on that night. This time, it's the one-hour finale of already renewed Raising Hope, a show that has historically proven it has a very loyal audience, but it's also not been able to spike much when given a big lead-in. Will the Idol lead-in be Raising ratings? That's The Question for Thursday, March 28, 2013.

Raising Hope In Recent Weeks Previous Occupant Glee
1.6/1.5 (2/5/2013)
1.5 (2/19/2013)
1.5/1.4 (2/26/2013)
2.4 (3/7/2013, 4.0 Idol lead-in)
2.0 (3/14/2013, 3.4 Idol)
2.0 (3/21/2013, 3.1 Idol)

To elaborate a bit on my "not been able to spike" comment: last season the show aired after The X Factor and did significantly worse than its typical post-New Girl numbers. (Though at the time those shows had about the same ratings.) Later that season it was tried for five weeks at 8:00 and didn't drop too significantly from its post-New Girl level (at least not before DST). Then at the end of the season it returned to 9:30 and rose just a couple ticks from its 8:00 level.

It seems likely the show will go somewhere between its 1.5 norm on Tuesday and Glee's 2.0 norm on Thursday, because I still think Hope is a Truly weaker show than Glee. After seeing the Wednesday carnage, including another huge Idol drop, I'm going right in the middle.

Over/Under: 1.75. (If the finals end up being separated by half-hour, the o/u is 3.55 for the two eps combined.)

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14 comments:

Spot said...

Tough one. 1.7. That would be under. I love how many questions we are having this week. Happy Endings tomorrow? BTW, what bigger fish are there to catch next thursday? go on? i think new girl's tryout is more interesting at this point to be honest. Maybe I am missing something about that night.

Spot said...

1.7 seems about right and I'm even more swayed that way given how the Idol lead-in is sinking. So Under. And I'm thinking the bigger fish next week could be the Hannibal premiere?

Spot said...

I'd say under at 1.6. American Idol is no longer the mega powerhouse it used to be.

Spot said...

Hannibal next Thursday. I am actually shooting for 14 straight days with a Question (Monday thru next Sunday), but it will depend on whether I can get Saturday's Doctor Who 18-49 number.

Spot said...

That's awesome (even though I have no idea of Saturday or Doctor Who ratings at all). And I had forgotten about Hannibal, you are right.

Spot said...

Under. Idol is going to plunge, so I don't see it providing much of a boost.

Spot said...

Over. I'm thinking maybe it does spike a bit for once.

Spot said...

I'm going to be positive and say at least a 1.8. I have to be right at least once this week, right?? OVER.

Spot said...

...Over at 1.9, defying gravity.

Spot said...

Wow, this is actually reassuring.

Unknown said...

Over

Spot said...

Under.

Spot said...

Nicholas Nuccio: "Over"

Spot said...

Alas, my FOX bias has foiled us both.

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