Wednesday, April 3, 2013

The Question, Wednesday 4/3/13: Can ABC Live With the New Sitcom's Ratings?


Tonight, it's the third annual post-Modern Family April sitcom premiere, this one a Sarah Chalke starrer called How to Live With Your Parents (For the Rest of Your Life). (I will mostly be referring to it as How to Live from here on out. Sorry ABC.) The previous two April premieres actually made it into season two, and neither of them were particularly good fits with Modern Family. This one may have an edge in the "fit" department, but it may also get the Modern Family lead-in at its very weakest. Can ABC Live With the new sitcom's ratings? That's The Question for Wednesday, April 3, 2013.

Post-Modern Family Notables Modern Family in Recent Weeks
4.4 (Cougar Town, 9/23/09, 4.2 Modern)
3.7 (Mr. Sunshine, 2/9/11, 5.1 Modern)
2.8 (Happy Endings, 4/13/11, 3.9 Modern)
2.9 (Apartment 23, 4/11/12, 4.2 Modern)
3.2 (The Neighbors, 9/26/12, 5.5 Modern)
2.8 (Suburgatory s2, 10/17/12, 4.7 MF)
1.9 (Suburgatory last wk, 3/27/13, 3.2 MF)
4.0 (2/20/13)
3.9 (2/27/13)
3.2 (3/27/13)

Last year Apartment 23 premiered at a 2.9, which was several ticks above the 2.5ish normal level that Happy Endings was getting after originals at that time. Along the same lines, I see How to Live premiering several ticks above the 1.9 that Suburgatory got last week. If it can settle in the same vicinity as late-season Suburgs, it could eke out a second season like Apt 23 did last year. Also, I think Modern Family will rebound a bit this week, since it was off a month-long hiatus last week and has probably gotten more promotion since it's leading into a premiere this week.

Over/Under: 2.35.

No entries accepted after 6:00am ET the morning after the date in the headline. If editing your pick, please leave a separate comment.

17 comments:

Spot said...

Under.

Spot said...

I think it'll do only slightly better than Suburgatory has been doing in the slot. So I say under with a 2.1.


It wouldn't surprise me if How to Live... was the rare post-Modern Family show to not get a second season. ABC has too many comedies and with Modern Family weakening a little lately I could see this floundering under a 2.0 in the coming weeks.

Spot said...

Under.

Spot said...

Under. The Neighbors surprised me so this potentially could too but MF was much stronger then and this sounds like the worst MF lead-out ever.

Spot said...

Over

Spot said...

BTW, no best case/ worst case for these late ones? Like this one, Hannibal, Ready for Love, etc.

Unknown said...

Over. It should acheive 2.5.

Spot said...

First thing tomorrow morning. Couldn't get it finished for today.

Spot said...

Nicholas Nuccio: "Over. It should acheive 2.5."

Spot said...

Awesome, thanks!

Spot said...

...Under. I saw the trailer.

Matt said...

Under 2.0

Spot said...

Over.


Mainly because I've been waiting for this since May 2012.

Spot said...

Under.

Spot said...

I said Under (2.0) from my phone, and it said that it went through. I wonder if you got the picks that I made from my phone (granted, mostly losses) over the past week or two.

Spot said...

Under at 2.1

Spot said...

Yes, they show up in the Blogger comments but don't make it into Disqus for some reason. I've been posting them in the threads.

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