Thursday, April 4, 2013

The Question, Thursday 4/4/13: Can Hannibal Carve Out a Niche at 10:00?


For new shows scheduled in questionable pairings or against particularly tough competition, it's mostly been a season of self-fulfilling prophecy. They've pretty much all flopped hard. NBC's Hannibal has both; it premieres out of ratings-challenged comedy Go On, and it's got the toughest combined drama competition from ABC and CBS in the hour (with both shows original tonight). We all hoped it would get moved, but alas, here we are. Can Hannibal carve out a niche at 10:00?  That's The Question for Thursday, April 4, 2013.

Recent NBC Drama Premieres
1.6 (The Playboy Club, 9/19/11, 1.9 Sing-Off)
1.8 (Prime Suspect, 9/22/11, 3.3 Whitney)
2.1 (Grimm, 10/28/11, 1.1 Chuck)
1.4 (The Firm, 1/8/12, 1.7 Dateline)
3.8 (Smash, 2/6/12, 7.7 The Voice)
2.0 (Awake, 3/1/12, 1.7 Up All Night)
4.1 (Revolution, 9/17/12, 5.1 The Voice)
1.9 (Chicago Fire, 10/10/12, 1.9 SVU)
2.0 (Deception, 1/7/13, 2.6 Biggest Loser)
0.9 (Do No Harm, 1/31/13, 1.9 Office)

I'm roughly repeating the same over/under I used for Do No Harm, adding an extra tenth. It was clearly nuts to think Do No Harm would get that, given that show had absolutely nothing going for it. But it's about where Awake, a concept that had at least some appeal out of the gate, probably would've premiered given this timeslot 13 months later. Hannibal should have at least some appeal out of the gate as well. Does it have markedly more or less appeal than Awake? It has a "name," but I personally preferred Awake's promos, so I'm calling it a wash.

Over/Under: 1.65.

No entries accepted after 6:00am ET the morning after the date in the headline. If editing your pick, please leave a separate comment.

15 comments:

Spot said...

Over.

I think it might surprise. I can see people watching this.

Spot said...

Under

Spot said...

Sounds a lot more decent than Do No Harm and I don't see much Scandal cross-over so should at least have an alright start even in an otherwise bad situation. Over.

Spot said...

Over at 1.9.

Spot said...

Under.

NBC usually gets a premiere audience and then suffers a fall. I see this as being more in line with Do No Harm, especially with a horrible lead in. My guess is a 1.3 demo (if its lucky).

Spot said...

I can't see Go On getting more than a 1.5, and I don't see Hannibal increasing on it. Under

Spot said...

It's a dire situation, but I think the brand by itself could at least draw some attention, along with the (surprising, at least to me) strong reviews. Over at 1.8.

Spot said...

Under

Unknown said...

Under at 1.4.

Spot said...

Over. Maybe it gets lucky thanks to the brand...

Spot said...

...Under. I was torn, but the Magic 8 Ball was adamant.

Spot said...

Nicholas Nuccio: "Under at 1.4."

Spot said...

I'll just repeat what I said for the last NBC Thursday at 10 pm question: "If either Elementary or Scandal were a rerun tonight, [Hannibal] would
have an easier time getting past this line. But...it gets no such luxury."

Under.

Spot said...

Under, partly because not enough people are watching NBC to take notice of another show, and partly because scandal and elementary have already completely claimed 10pm

Spot said...

Over. 1.7

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