The War of 18-49, Will Trent

Stemming the Tide

One of ABC's biggest success stories of the 2022-23 season was the move of veteran crime drama The Rookie into the Tuesday 8/7c hour, where it surged well above its own previous history and even put up some of ABC's best numbers of the Plus era in that timeslot. However, that big lead-in was completely wasted on its spin-off, The Rookie: Feds, which went from a weak 10/9c showing in the fall to dropping nearly 40% of its mothership lead-in.

Meanwhile, at 10/9c, another new drama called Will Trent was quietly holding onto almost all of what was left from the tanking Feds. It premiered with a 0.38 demo (89 Plus) following Feds' strongest episode ever (0.44), and kept holding onto around 90% of Feds as that show later sank into the 0.3's. That was good enough for Trent to eke out a second season, while Feds got the axe after a lengthy post-season deliberation.

The writers' strike kept season two of Will Trent from premiering until late February, but ABC showed it a big vote of confidence by letting it take over The Rookie's 8/7c hour, while Rookie slid to 9/8c. It wasn't too clear in that short second season whether that was a smart move. Trent certainly got a bounce, flirting with the league average in its early episodes, but it was nothing special considering it moved two hours earlier, and quite a bit weaker than The Rookie's run from the previous season. 

Potential Realized

But it all came together for ABC the next season, when the whole night got a huge boost from the introduction of new drama High Potential. Airing at 9/8c, Trent and High Potential went on a massive run in the early winter, with both touching big hit territory and Trent blowing away its previous series highs. Though they came back to earth when the CBS competition returned, Trent ended up with a performance much better than last year even after High Potential was gone, and now competitive with that breakout season of The Rookie from two years prior.

The whole lineup including Trent couldn't quite maintain that same level in season four, with Trent dropping back to a 100 average, but it was still a very productive show and stronger than its first two seasons. Though Will Trent has never gotten the big reality show lead-in exposure of The Rookie and High Potential, ABC seems very happy to keep it rolling in this midseason arrangement. The big question now is whether it can keep hanging on to the coveted lead-off slot as the network's crime drama universe keeps expanding, with sophomore RJ Decker returning and another Rookie spin-off on tap as well.

Adults 18-49 info by season:

Seas	Year	Slot	Avg	y2y	Lo	Hi	Results	Grade
1	2023	Tuesday 10:00	0.29		0.2	0.4	detail	C+
2	Spring 2024	Tuesday 8:00	0.34	+16%	0.3	0.4	detail	B
3	2025		Tuesday 8:00	0.34	+2%	0.3	0.5	detail	A
4	2026		Tuesday 8:00	0.30	-13%	0.2	0.4	detail	C+

Historical-adjusted ratings by season:

Seas	Year	A18-49+	Label	Now26	y2y	Lo	Hi	Premiere	Finale
1	2023	67	flop	0.20		47	89	89	63
2	Spring 2024	88	marginal	0.26	+31%	76	105	87	87
3	2025	108	solid	0.32	+22%	88	157	157	104
4	2026	100	solid	0.30	-7%	77	134	114	90
AVERAGE:		AVERAGE:	91	marginal
CAREER:		CAREER:	363	utility

The War of 18-49 chronicles the ratings history of veteran primetime series. For more, see the Index.