Tuesday, October 15, 2013

First Two Weeks, Super Fun Night

ABC's Super Fun Night became the latest series to post a solid premiere result after Modern Family. It averaged a 3.2 demo, retaining over 75% of its lead-in from Modern (4.2). It won the 9:30 half hour, beating competing Criminal Minds (2.7) on CBS as well as Fox's The X Factor (2.6 at 9:30) and NBC's Law and Order: SVU (2.1 at 9:30). Among recent post-Modern premieres, it was actually one of the most impressive, tying last year's The Neighbors (which had a 1.3-point bigger lead-in).

In week two, Super Fun Night took a slightly steeper than average week two drop, down 22% to a 2.5 demo. Its Modern Family lead-in was also down a few ticks to 3.9. At this level SFN was still the network's second-biggest comedy, ahead of The Middle (2.2) by three ticks.

The week two performance is pretty solid, but it's almost identical to week two of the cancelled How to Live With Your Parents from last spring; it had a 2.5 out of a 3.8. And Super Fun Night dropped more to get to that point. I kind of wanted to defer How to Live, but there was no real point since its next episode aired after a repeat. Now that I have the opportunity, I'm taking it. Could I see myself pulling the trigger on a cancel if it drops to a 2.1 or 2.2? I think I could. Could I see that actually happening? I think I could. There have been some rather crazy (get it?) week three drops this season, and I'm still not totally sold on this pairing making sense. SFN has given itself a very good shot at an episode extension, but I want to see it stabilize before saying season two. Defer.

The fun ended for Super Fun Night in week three, as it dropped another 16% to just a 2.1 rating, barely holding half of its lead-in from Modern Family (4.1). It's gone from one of the more promising post-Modern debuts to one of the lesser post-Modern retainers in just three episodes. It's still not totally over for this show, as its fellow ABC comedy newbies are really not doing any better, even adjusting for their situations. But this is another one of those, "Why would I defer if I'm gonna say renew after this?" It's a Cancel.

"First Two Weeks" is an ongoing experiment to see how often a new scripted show's fate can be predicted by the very earliest data. Here are the picks and lineups for every show this season.


Spot said...

Agree with the defer. If at gunpoint, I would say cancel though

Spot said...

This is a show where the extent of the downside potential really isn't clear yet. It's sort of the sitcom equivalent of a Flashforward or an Event where it gets a big launch and tumbles from there, but it's hard to call that much of a tumble after week two.

Given that they actually felt the need to replace the pilot with another episode, I'm figuring the quality is lacking enough that it will take that tumble. But on this network, I can't call that with any confidence whatsoever. I'd say back nine, new slot, call it from there. Only problem is, it's probably best paired with Mixology, and where in the world ABC puts a hangout comedy block I have no idea. Tuesday 10 is the least bad I can think of, and that'll probably get filled with something like Killer Women.

Spot said...

Renew. ABC has done alot for it, and their other new comedies are fading fast.

Spot said...

Looks like this one's going to be moved to Cancel after last night.

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