Friday, October 4, 2013
NBC's latest post-The Voice Monday drama The Blacklist opened with a 3.8 demo, or at around the same level as the other two: Smash (3.8) and Revolution (4.1). Considering it's a year later and The Blacklist had premiere week competition, it's probably about the same kind of performance as Revolution (though The Voice was a few tenths bigger this year with a 5.6 in the 9:30 half-hour). Revolution had a good start, so this one did too. It more than doubled up competing premiere Hostages on CBS.
Though it looked much better in the prelims, The Blacklist ended up with a 3.3 in week two, down by 13% from the premiere. Its lead-in The Voice was also down in week two (by 8%).
I'd feel better about this if it had gotten the preliminary 3.6 in week two rather than the 3.3, but I still think I'm in pretty good shape saying Renew here. Strong premiere, less-than-average drop. NBC will probably air most or even all of the season after The Voice, so getting down to unacceptable levels will be difficult. If Smash could get renewed after dropping twice as much in week two, this one should get there too.
"First Two Weeks" is an ongoing experiment to see how often a new scripted show's fate can be predicted by the very earliest data. Here are the picks and lineups for every show this season.