Thursday, October 17, 2013

First Two Weeks, The Millers

Thanks to its The Big Bang Theory lead-in (5.2), The Millers averaged a 3.3 demo rating in its premiere, one of the season's bigger premiere numbers. But as post-TBBT premieres go, this wasn't one of the greats. While it beat the two-and-through 2011 premiere of How to Be a Gentleman (2.9), it fell well behind $#*! My Dad Says (4.0), Rob (4.1) and this season's The Crazy Ones (3.9). It wasn't a disastrous premiere rating, but it wasn't a particularly positive one either.

The Millers needed to overachieve in week two, and it did; it dropped to a 3.0 demo rating, down just 9% week-to-week. That's one of the season's smallest week two drops. It was now pulling less than 60% of its The Big Bang Theory lead-in (5.1), but at least it had a fairly sizable lead on the rest of the CBS comedies.

After week one, I was rarin' to go with my "This is the new $#*! My Dad Says" narrative, ready to call it a cancel if it fell to/below The Crazy Ones numbers with the direct TBBT lead-in. Unfortunately (in terms of making the prediction easy), The Millers had what could only be called its absolute best-case scenario week two. Not only did it keep a three to the left of the decimal, but The Crazy Ones had a steep week three drop to 2.4, and the pulling of We Are Men didn't help Monday that much. That leaves CBS with a mess of low 2's mediocrity in the 9:00 comedy hours.

I can't imagine that a 3.0 is what CBS wants out of a Big Bang lead-out, so I still don't really see this is as much more than 50/50. But all you have to do is outrun the other shows, and The Crazy Ones and Mom are probably even bigger disappointments right now. I'm still guessing two of the three find a way to next season given the departure of How I Met Your Mother, and at this point I just don't feel comfortable enough calling The Millers the odd man out. So I'll settle for probably going 2-1. Renew. Since that's been a kiss of death lately, enjoy your 2.4 tonight, The Millers.

"First Two Weeks" is an ongoing experiment to see how often a new scripted show's fate can be predicted by the very earliest data. Here are the picks and lineups for every show this season.


Spot said...

I'm more confident in predicting CBS shrink their comedy time again then I am in predicting the fate of any of this newbie class.

As this one has the biggest raw numbers, I guess Renew?

Spot said...

My guess is renew but I don't think it is any better than what Mom or Crazy Ones or Two and a Half Men or 2 Broke Girls would do with the slot. 2 Broke Girls pulled that 3.9 following Big Bang when it also had the Michael J.Fox and Grey's to compete with (Big Bang was also a bit higher, granted). I doubt it would not remain in the low to mid 3s following Big Bang as the 8h30 hour has no competition whatsoever apart from a weak X-Factor.

Spot said...

Renew. I very much wish it wouldn't be.

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