Wednesday, October 9, 2013

First Two Weeks, The Goldbergs


WEEK ONE
Directly leading out of ABC's massive Agents of SHIELD premiere was new comedy The Goldbergs, which posted a very respectable 3.1 demo in its premiere. That was down about a third from SHIELD's 4.7 rating in the 8:30 half-hour. It had about as much competition as SHIELD, facing off against NBC's The Voice (5.1 in the half hour) as well as NCIS: Los Angeles (3.1 at 9:00) and New Girl (2.1).

WEEK TWO
SHIELD's 30% drop caused reverberations throughout the rest of ABC's all-newbie Tuesday, but The Goldbergs actually didn't drop any more steeply than did SHIELD; its 2.2 demo in week two was down 29%, which was again about two thirds of what SHIELD delivered.

PROGNOSIS
A 2.2 out of a 3.3 is really not that bad; last season's NBC comedy Go On was in this general vicinity with a lead-in north of 4.0 in the second half of last fall, and it got its full season. Suburgatory got renewed after hanging low 2's post-Modern Family for most of the season. So I expect The Goldbergs will get a full season along those same lines unless something really crazy happens in the next week or two. But not even Go On got a season two, and SHIELD is much more of a wild card in the coming weeks than was The Voice. So I'm going to Defer this one and see if SHIELD leveled off somewhat last night.

WEEK THREE/PROGNOSIS
In week three, SHIELD dropped another 12% to a 2.9, and The Goldbergs dropped another 14% to a 1.9. This was almost exactly what I thought was going to happen; I was hoping for purposes of this prediction that SHIELD would either stay at 3.0+ or be a bit more alarming. So I think I have to default to the direction I was slightly leaning after week two, which was Renew. I think the Go On comparison is fairly apt here, and the tiebreaker for me here is that unlike Go On, the lead-out for The Goldbergs won't have to go on a months-long hiatus. So there may not be any real opportunity for this show to get "exposed"; it could easily air pretty much the whole season after original SHIELD. And I think SHIELD is close enough to leveling off that it keeps The Goldbergs from getting really ugly.

"First Two Weeks" is an ongoing experiment to see how often a new scripted show's fate can be predicted by the very earliest data. Here are the picks and lineups for every show this season.

5 comments:

Spot said...

I'm finding the Goldbergs really funny so I am hoping your prognosis will become Renew, but the constant drops each week aren't good.

Spot said...

Which ABC sitcoms are closer to the proverbial bear than this one? Trophy Wife, clearly. Back In The Game, probably. Super Fun Night... isn't yet, but by tomorrow lunchtime it might be heading for a freefall of its own, only without the ability to blame a crumbling lead-in.

I'd be saying Renew on the grounds that only an NBC-esque new comedy wipeout or a midseason breakout would facilitate its cancellation, and neither is exactly hugely likely.

Spot said...

Goldbergs is so bad it will be canceled.

Spot said...

I honestly still don't know what to say on this one. It's too packed together with Back in the Game and I think so will Suburgatory whenever it returns. I still think SFN will end up cancelled somehow, in which case The Middle+MF+Suburgatory+LMS+2 newbies would be enough for 6 comedy hours plus 1 backup. If they still go with 8, then I think one out of the goldbergs or back in the game would get it as long as it doens't get too ugly for either of them (but 8 hours of comedy is not a sure thing IMO). Neither is an ABC production or else that would what I would give the hedge to. It's a pure tossp-up. Since I went with renewal on back in the game, I will go with cancel here since at least I will be consistently wrong as I have trouble coming up with a scenario short of an insanely bad comedy and drama development season in which ABC needs both to come back.

Spot said...

I think you mean the lead-in for Goldbergs not having to go on hiatus, not the lead-out.

(I agreed with your call on the data you had, but then came last night and suddenly it's clearly behind Back In The Game...)

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