Tuesday, October 8, 2013
Marvel's Agents of S.H.I.E.L.D. was the most anticipated new show of the fall, and it showed. Big-time. The show opened on premiere Tuesday with a 4.7 demo, a number that will likely wind up being the largest self-starting premiere in A18-49+ history. And it pulled this off against brutal competition: The Voice (4.1 in the 8:00 hour), the NCIS premiere (3.6) and the Fox comedies (1.5/1.8).
But much of that interest was just a one-time thing. SHIELD dropped a steep 30% in week two to a 3.3, dropping behind both The Voice and NCIS. Still, at a 3.3 it was the third-biggest show on ABC in week two, trailing just Modern Family (4.2) and the premiere of Scandal (3.6).
That drop is pretty worrying, and it'll make week three verrry interesting. But a 3.3 leading off Tuesday is still sensational for ABC, and still well above what I thought it'd average for the season. It seems almost impossible it could drop so much in week three that I'd actually shift over to a cancel call if I deferred. Renew it is.
"First Two Weeks" is an ongoing experiment to see how often a new scripted show's fate can be predicted by the very earliest data. Here are the picks and lineups for every show this season.