Friday, October 18, 2013

Spotted Ratings, Thursday 10/17/13


WHAT MATTERS:
  • For now, anyway, it seems the CBS and NBC comedies have finished collapsing. Newbies The Millers, Sean Saves the World and Welcome to the Family all made minor week-to-week rallies (while The Crazy Ones dropped to even after finals). However, CBS continued leaking further in the second half of the evening as Two and a Half Men and Elementary each dipped by multiple ticks.
  • The CW made it three straight crazy rallies in the 8/7c hour as The Vampire Diaries (1.3) was way up to season high levels. Did the affiliates start airing The Walking Dead at 7:00 or something? Given how much stronger the 8:00 hour was, it was a very mediocre start for Reign at 9/8c. It's not a totally unworkable number, but it's gonna have to hold very well from here if it wants to keep this slot away from the midseason dramas.
  • ABC had very mixed news as the amazing Scandal swung back up in the 10/9c hour, but Once Upon a Time in Wonderland looks pretty much dead and Grey's Anatomy inched down again even as competing young females draw Glee went on hiatus.

FULL TABLE:

InfoShowTimeslotTrue
A18-49 Skew Last LeLa Rank y2yTLa Ty2y
Once Upon a Time in Wonderland 1.2 34% -29%-0.5n/a 2/2 n/a -29% -27% 1.3
Grey's Anatomy 2.7 39% -4%-0.1-0.5 4/4 -21% -5% -19% 2.8
Scandal 3.3 44% +6%+0.2-0.1 2/3 +74% +6% +74% 3.2
ABC:-6%+4%
The Big Bang Theory 5.2 37% +2%+0.1n/a 3/5 +8% +2% +8% 5.4
The Millers 3.2 33% +7%+0.2+0.1 2/3 n/a +7% -20% 2.6
The Crazy Ones 2.4 33% +0%+0.0+0.2 3/4 n/a +0% -17% 2.0
Two and a Half Men 2.1 31% -9%-0.2+0.0 4/4 -48% -9% -19% 2.0
Elementary 1.5 22% -21%-0.4-0.2 4/4 -35% -21% -35% 1.6
CBS:-4%-16%
Parks and Recreation 1.3 50% +8%+0.1n/a 1/4 -19% +8% +8% 1.5
Welcome to the Family 0.9 47% +13%+0.1+0.1 2/3 n/a +13% -31% 1.0
Sean Saves the World 1.1 42% +10%+0.1+0.1 2/3 n/a +10% -48% 1.3
The Michael J. Fox Show 1.2 43% +0%+0.0+0.1 3/4 n/a +0% -29% 1.3
Parenthood 1.3 41% +8%+0.1+0.0 3/4 n/a +8% +44% 1.4
NBC:+8%-12%
ALCS 2.5 37% +4%+0.1n/a 1/4 n/a +2% +64% 2.7
Fox:+2%+64%
The Vampire Diaries 1.3 56% +30%+0.3n/a 1/3 +0% +24% -4% 1.5
Reign 0.8 51% n/an/an/a 1/1 n/a +45% +7% 0.9
CW:+31%+0%
Big5:+2%+4%

KEY (click to expand)
A18-49 - Adults 18-49 rating. Percentage of US TV-owning adults 18-49 watching the program.
Skew - Percentage of adults 18-49 within the show's total viewership.
Last - A18-49 difference (percent and numerical) from the show's previous episode.
LeLa - A18-49 difference between the show's lead-in and its lead-in for the previous episode.
Rank - The A18-49 rating's rank among the show's episodes so far this season.
y2y - Percent difference between A18-49 and the show's rating a year ago.
TLa - Percent difference between A18-49 and the network's rating in the timeslot one week ago.
Ty2y - Percent difference between A18-49 and the network's rating in the timeslot one year ago.
True - A metric that adjusts the A18-49 rating for overall viewing levels, competition and lead-in. PRELIMINARY CALCULATION. For finals, see SpotVault.

(R) - Repeat.

Much more detail on these numbers at the New Daily Spotted Ratings page.

More Spotted Ratings in the Index.

29 comments:

Spot said...

The Millers and Crazy Ones could be getting their back orders as soon as today.



Elementary numbers are getting worse. When was the last time CBS cancelled a second-year drama?

Spot said...

I knew last week's TVD number was a fluke.

Spot said...

Wow at the vampire diaries. You won, CW. The move was worth it. TVD is alive and kicking and you have 2.5 good nights now, I was wrong. Now, if only you could have put the much more promising The 100 after TVD instead of Reign, all would be good. Still time in midseason I guess. Speaking of reign, my guess is wrong I guess but it is worth waiting for finals. In my defense, I didn't expect such a high tvd, I was counting on something like 1.1, not 1.3.

Elsewhere, happy that the crazy ones stopped bleeding. The Millers going up is a good sign for CBS. Elementary is now on the same level as H50. I did see it coming, so whatever. But Two and a Half Men is becoming a huge problem, I don't know if the show is profitable at those levels. It's going to be an interesting midseason for CBS for a change.

Nothing to add for NBC.

ABC... I don't think they can justify keeping Scandal locked in the 10pm hour much longer. Sad that Wonderland is yet another flop. ABC is having an absolutely awful season for newbie shows, only Shield will survive and maybe a mercy comedy renewal whatever it is. Grey's going down is strange, I think it should uptick in finals, but still, it's strange. Also, Scandal exploded in the second half hour, just wow wow wow.

Spot said...

Not this ***REDACTED*** again. Seriously, stop landing on the friggin' line! That's what eventually cost me the win on Biggest Loser.

Spot said...

I thought I read somewhere that Reign was designed to be a limited series type of show a la how Betrayal and Hostages were sold. Although it could be that the networks have started to pick up using that language to hide behind.

Does anyone else think that maybe at midseason ABC goes for a Grey's Anatomy/Scandal/new drama line up? Or is that more likely for 2014-2015?

Spot said...

I like that idea, but I wish ABC had a midseason drama that would fit into that 10pm slot better. Killer Women? Mind Games? Blah. I've heard OK things about Resurrection, but judging from the previews, it seems a bit ponderous, which wouldn't exactly make it an ideal lead-out for Scandal. Apparently they have some sort of CIA limited series on tap, which might be a better fit, but I never even heard of it before I just saw the link on Wikipedia, so I don't know what the deal is with that one.

Spot said...

Scandal as the current #1 network drama obviously could help some other show as a lead-in, but it's unclear where it should be. I mean, if they just move up Grey/Scandal an hour, Grey would be up against Big Bang which could be super damaging.

Spot said...

They did get their back orders, but it is a little surprising that Mom also got one.

Spot said...

where can i find the half hour breakdowns?

Spot said...

I think everyone copies them from Marc Berman's daily ratings forum.

Spot said...

Thanks!!

Spot said...

I assume Mom's back order means that Friends with Better Lives is a bust.

Spot said...

I still insist that if they were to move it, they should stick DWTS to Sundays, move OUAT to Tuesdays (OUAT| Shield | New Drama), Revenge to Thursdays post Grey's and Scandal to anchor Mondays as it is the only ABC show strong enough to rebuild that night for them. But this is a HUGE schedule shake up and ABC will never go for it. I think they definetely should send DWTS to Sundays though and take the dramas out of there. But I am less sold on moving Scandal away from Thursdays simply because Grey's wont last forever and it will be hard to find another heir for the night. Scandal is likely it, so moving it away would damage that. If Grey's were to end in a couple of years, the night could then be too exposed to rebuild.

Spot said...

I agree that there is no good fit for a Scandal lead-out on tap so it makes the move sort of pointless. I would however get behind a save-Revenge move that would land it there. The shows fit together well I think (I adore both) and I think Ressurection would be a reasonable fit after OUAT on Sundays (even if I think Sundays is not a place for dramas and DWTS should go there, but that won't happen, realistically speaking)

Spot said...

I was hoping for one :P Damn it! I really didn't count on TVD being this high

Spot said...

Which is a shame!

Spot said...

But I think the problem with DWTS is that they would have to change the judging panel since the British version of the show airs the previous night? Which is possible; Idol changes their judges often.

Spot said...

I would simply air The Bachelor in the fall and DWTS in the spring. There is no British version in the spring, as far as I could understand from wikipedia!

Spot said...

Vampire Diaries doesn't really surprise me, cause it's siphoning off audience from Once in One-derland.

Spot said...

Actually you have a very good point. I didn't think about it, but there is probably a fair degree of crossed audience in there. This being said, I am actually skeptical when it comes to competition dynamics in the 8pm hour because there is plenty of time to catch up in the same night and count for the Live+SD ratings that we see. But I agree with you, good point.

Spot said...

I can't believe that when having a discussion about TV's #1 drama, neither NCIS nor SHIELD are the first that come to mind.

Spot said...

Yeah, I think people were just confused about The CW starting in the middle of the week.

Spot said...

At this point I don't think it really matters what the 10:00 pm drama would be because CBS and NBC are so weak in the hour that the lead-in factor could mean that ABC could win by default in raw numbers. Since Grey's Anatomy isn't getting canceled without a final season announcement, ABC could use it to shore up the troubled 8:00 hour and give a new show a more powerful lead-in in Scandal.

Spot said...

That's correct. The UK season is Sep-Dec.

For what it's worth, I like DWTS as a 9-11 show on some night or another. The affiliates would be happy to have a continuing peetooplus hit in the 10pm hour, anyway.

Spot said...

I wouldn't hate it that way on Sundays either but I am not sure of what to put before it. If they do resurrect BoP, which I don't believe yet, I think a DWTS-BoP plan is the best one ABC can come up with to be honest

Spot said...

It's worth noting that the UK show actually tapes its Sunday night results shows on the Saturday night. The panel *might* be able to fly over in time for Sunday - a quick check suggests there's not a scheduled Sunday morning flight from London that works, but there is one from Frankfurt.

Spot said...

I guess it could be doable then. But honestly I don't think they need two seasons a year. I don't think there is any point in programming seriously sundays during winter so I think having the bachelor on fall and dwts on spring would work just great.

Spot said...

If anything, it might be worth taking a flyer on a female-skewing "limited series", or something designed for shortened seasons. The competition on Sunday is ferocious, but SNF, TWD, and the FOX comedies are all male-skewing, so ABC still has some room to do well with counterprogramming that befits the Summer's Eve Network nickname.

Which might be The Batchelor, as you said...

Spot said...

Exactly, I agree with you. However, the likes of OUAT/Revenge and Betrayal are already pretty female skewing I would say (and I say this is as a guy who loves Revenge and OUAT), so I think there is an issue with dramas there in general. I think those looking for dramas that night are just used to look for cable. And there is no reality options on that night apart from TAR which really doesn't strike to me as the type of show that would appeal to someone who watches DWTS or The Bachelor. The Bachelor has the best of two world by being both female skewing and reality.

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