Wednesday, October 2, 2013

Spotted Ratings, Premiere Sunday 9/29/13


WHAT MATTERS:
  • As anyone who followed the spring numbers could've predicted, ABC's Sunday lineup returned at a level far below where it was at the beginning of last season.
    • Most egregious was Once Upon a Time, down a whooping 33% from last year's 3.9 premiere.
    • If there was a "winner" in all this, it was Revenge, though perhaps not by such a long shot after coming down in finals. Though still down 28% year-to-year, it took a larger step up from its spring numbers and was within striking distance of its level for most of last fall, even against the monster Breaking Bad finale. Unless it takes a similar post-premiere dip, it could end up being much less of a problem for ABC than seemed possible.
    • And newbie Betrayal was pretty much dead on arrival, 30% below the year-ago 666 Park Ave premiere, though the compatible-ish lead-in probably contributed to it being not quite as DOA as Tuesday's Lucky 7.
  • Animation Domination on Fox had a disappointing start, with 20%ish year-to-year drops for NFL-assisted The Simpsons, Bob's Burgers, Family Guy and American Dad!. But one thing to factor in here is that the NFL overrun ended much earlier in the 7:00 hour this year; Fox had an 8.5 at 7:30 last year and a 4.7 this year! And CBS' lineup including The Amazing Race, The Good Wife and The Mentalist also dipped in the general vicinity of 20% on average.
  • After finals, the big four went -20% vs. last year's premiere Sunday, with every single network down somewhere close to that number. Even usually reliable NBC had a rather soft football game, down 16% from last year's premiere week affair.
  •  More on all the big cable news and the NFL stuff after finals! One tidbit for The Questioners: the finale of Breaking Bad did a huge 4.9 demo in the top 25 markets. It should come down in the nationals, as the season premiere did (from 3.13 to 2.87). If it comes down by that exact same percent amount, it'd score a 4.49, or right on the borderline. Gah!
    • UPDATE (2:23 PM): Scratch that; the Breaking Bad finale actually did better outside the top markets this time! It delivered an astounding 10.3 million viewers. It's the most-watched basic cable series finale ever, edging both The Closer and Monk (each in the general vicinity of nine million viewers). About two-thirds of those viewers were 18-49ers, adding up to about a 5.3 rating. That's up more than fifty percent week-to-week, a series finale spike reminiscent of The Sopranos in 2007. And a show that started its run with 0.4's and 0.5's ended up on the precipice of The Walking Dead territory. Wow!
    • Also, Homeland began season three with 1.9 million viewers, up a touch year-to-year, and it launched Masters of Sex to 1.0 million.

FULL TABLE:

InfoShowTimeslotTrue
A18-49 Skew Last LeLa Rank y2yTLa Ty2y
Once Upon a Time (R) 1.4 35% +75% -24% 1.4
Once Upon a Time 2.6 39% n/an/an/a 1/1 -33% +333% -33% 2.5
Revenge 2.3 36% n/an/an/a 1/1 -28% +318% -28% 2.0
Betrayal 1.5 37% n/an/an/a 1/1 n/a +150% -30% 1.4
ABC:+206%-30%
60 Minutes 1.4 17% n/an/an/a 1/1 -18% -85% -20% 1.4
The Amazing Race 2.0 29% n/an/an/a 1/1 -20% -67% -22% 2.0
The Good Wife 1.5 21% n/an/an/a 1/1 -17% -68% -17% 1.5
The Mentalist 1.6 21% n/an/an/a 1/1 -24% -63% -24% 1.7
CBS:-73%-21%
Football Night in America p2 2.0 45% +67%+0.8n/a 1/4 +67% +67% +67% 1.9
Football Night in America p3 4.1 46% +21%+0.7+0.8 3/4 -13% +14% -18% 4.0
Sunday Night Football 7.6 47% -1%-0.1+0.7 5/5 -16% -0% -15% 7.0
NBC:+3%-13%
NFL Overrun 9.3 44% +3%+0.3n/a 2/4 +9% +933% -9% 9.3
The OT 4.7 46% n/an/an/a 1/1 +7% +370% -45% 2.6
The Simpsons 2.9 58% n/an/an/a 1/1 -24% +107% -24% 2.4
Bob's Burgers 2.2 62% n/an/an/a 1/1 -15% +83% -15% 1.9
Family Guy 2.6 63% n/an/an/a 1/1 -21% +117% -21% 2.3
American Dad! 2.1 62% n/an/an/a 1/1 -16% +133% -16% 1.8
Fox:+261%-23%
Big4:+0%-20%

KEY (click to expand)
A18-49 - Adults 18-49 rating. Percentage of US TV-owning adults 18-49 watching the program.
Skew - Percentage of adults 18-49 within the show's total viewership.
Last - A18-49 difference (percent and numerical) from the show's previous episode.
LeLa - A18-49 difference between the show's lead-in and its lead-in for the previous episode.
Rank - The A18-49 rating's rank among the show's episodes so far this season.
y2y - Percent difference between A18-49 and the show's rating a year ago.
TLa - Percent difference between A18-49 and the network's rating in the timeslot one week ago.
Ty2y - Percent difference between A18-49 and the network's rating in the timeslot one year ago.
True - A metric that adjusts the A18-49 rating for overall viewing levels, competition and lead-in.

(R) - Repeat.

Much more detail on these numbers at the New Daily Spotted Ratings page.

More Spotted Ratings in the Index.

17 comments:

Spot said...

I can't decide if the people at AMC are either popping open champagne bottles or weeping while curled up under their desks in the fetal position.

Spot said...

Revenge has now gone three-for-three in season debuts launching higher than I would have pegged the show for, especially after the awards season skid.

Spot said...

Under.

Spot said...

Today, popping corks. Tomorrow, they'll take that fetal-position anxiety and focus it onto helping Better Call Saul succeed since Low Winter Sun clearly won't eclipse Breaking's ratings.

Spot said...

Over, a 2.3. It should have bad quarter hours but the Mother lead in should be enough to have it premiere at a decentish number. I think Mom would have scored much better had it premiered out of How I Met Your Mother. And honestly, when We Are Men is pulled, CBS should just put Mom at 8h30 and let MM take over 9h30

Spot said...

OVER.

I wasn't sold on the series, but I feel like it could surprise.

Spot said...

DIt's gonna be a rough run, but Over. I'd guess a drop in HIMYM this week, but enough to keep WAM above 2.2. Would that be the lowest CBS comedy premiere ever? Not Truly perhaps, but in pure numbers.

Spot said...

I will say over just because I think the names are big enough to get decent sampling.


2.7 is as high as I'll go.

Spot said...

Over at 2.3/2.4

Spot said...

Over. I'm in an optimistic mood after seeing BrBa demolish the over/under line and everyone's expectations.

Spot said...

Incredible for Breaking Bad!

Spot said...

The new fall show that I have the least interest in checking out based on promos. Under!

Spot said...

Over.

Spot said...

Over

Spot said...

I did wonder if this would be one of those rare events like the Survivor season 1 finale.

Spot said...

The Survivor finale got a 22.8 or something like that in the summer. I don't know the league average for that season, but it probably equates to about a 10.5 in today's ratings. A more apt comparison may be the Ashton Kutcher premiere of 2.5 Men, even though it had equivalent ratings of about a 9.5 today, considering that it was on broadcast during premiere week.

Spot said...

Phenomenon, not numbers. It drew people who had never watched an episode.

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