Thursday, October 3, 2013

First Two Weeks, Hostages


WEEK ONE
CBS had a pretty disappointing premiere Monday, but the lowlight was its performance in the 10/9c hour with new limited series Hostages. A week after Under the Dome signed off for the summer with a 2.8 demo rating, Hostages took the timeslot down a full point with a 1.8 demo. It did significantly worse than its already disappointing lead-in from the premiere of Mom. And it was more than doubled up by competing newbie The Blacklist on NBC (3.8).

WEEK TWO
It only got worse for CBS in week two, and Hostages was no exception. It dropped 17% to a 1.5 demo (from a 2.2 Mom lead-in) and was once again more than doubled up by The Blacklist (3.3).

PROGNOSIS
It was the weakest show in CBS' relatively soft 10/9c hour from Monday to Thursday during premiere week. In week two, there's a small chance it could be the weakest even counting Friday and Sunday! So this is a Cancel, though don't count out CBS claiming that it was a mini-series all along so there's nothing to cancel. The question is whether CBS actually has some kind of reasonable replacement in the immediate future. Replacing a drama is not quite as easy as replacing a comedy for CBS. Might they bring in the six leftover Unforgettable episodes? Might they actually flip it with something like The Mentalist or former occupant Hawaii Five-0? Dunno.

"First Two Weeks" is an ongoing experiment to see how often a new scripted show's fate can be predicted by the very earliest data. Here are the picks and lineups for every show this season.

5 comments:

Spot said...

Cancel.

Spot said...

Nothing to say, it is a certain cancellation.

Spot said...

Transferring Hawaii to Friday was a good move, the only one this season in fact. CBS wont get that show back to Monday. I guess Hostages/Intelligence lineup goes as planned.

Spot said...

If CBS decides to swap Hostages with an existing drama, The Mentalist is probably the best option since CBS isn't taking Sunday seriously anyway. Or they could take a page from ABC's playbook and plug in Undercover Boss reruns. An added value of procedural-esque reality shows like Boss and Shark Tank is the ability to plug problem holes and find an audience that isn't dropped into a season-long story like The Amazing Race or Survivor.

Spot said...

I'd actually say TGW for any switch. The Mentalist has final season written all over it, TGW at least has a theoretical tiny potential to get back on the upswing in a better first-run slot with online syndication.

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