Tuesday, October 8, 2013

The Question, Tuesday 10/8/13: Does the CW Finally Have a Super Tuesday Lineup?


In 2012-13 the CW was essentially a two-night, three-show network: Wednesday with Arrow/Supernatural and Thursday with The Vampire Diaries. Tonight, they send one of those three shows to try to establish a beachhead on a third evening. Supernatural is back in the Tuesday 9/8c slot where it all began eight years ago after Gilmore Girls, and they'll hope for respectability in the 8/7c hour with The Vampire Diaries spin-off The Originals, which got a post-TVD preview last week. Does the CW finally have a super Tuesday lineup? That's The Question for Tuesday, October 8, 2013.


Supernatural Last Season The Originals Last Week
0.8 (premiere, 10/3/12) (0.3 Oh Sit!)
0.92 (average)
1.0 (finale, 5/15/13) (1.0 Arrow)
1.0 (10/3/13) (1.2 TVD)

If The Originals could only muster a 1.0 after its best possible lead-in, it might seem that a collapse is on the way in its move to Tuesday. But that preview was apparently mostly a repeat of the backdoor pilot from last season. Because of the negative lead-in change, I can't predict The Originals will grow in its first "totally new" episode the way some other shows have in that situation, though it could hold pretty close.

The Originals PLUS Supernatural Over/Under: 1.65.

No entries accepted after 6:00am ET the morning after the date in the headline. If editing your pick, please leave a separate comment.

19 comments:

Spot said...

Over. I'm confident at least one of the two can throw in a 0.9 even if the other is at 0.8 (+ it feels like I've gone under far too often recently, got to have some optimism)

Spot said...

All that's needed is a .8 and a .9, and I think that should be doable, especially for Supernatural. Over.

Spot said...

Given the bad results on Monday, I'm going to say UNDER.

Spot said...

Over.

Spot said...

This will be close. I will go:


Supernatural- 0.8
Originals- 0.8


UNDER at a 1.6

Spot said...

I am going with over but it could go either way. One of them should be able to pull a 0.9, particularly supernatural, and the originals should hold at least at 0.8.

Spot said...

I'm just saying under to be different.

Spot said...

Exactly the right line - 0.8/0.8 or a 0.9/0.8 in either order seem the most likely results here.


I think The Voice plus two male-skewing dramas and a flop dudecom block is just slightly easier for The Originals in its target audience than Grey's and Glee plus a male-skewing CBS comedy block and a flop NBC comedy block (the last of these is a tautology these days). So the drop from an ultra-compatible 1.2 to a less compatible 0.7ish lead-in will cost it a couple of ticks, but I think that all else being equal this episode would stick or gain a tick from the premiere.


I don't see either show getting a 0.7, I do see either potentially getting a 0.9, and it only takes one of them doing so to clear this line. Over.

Spot said...

What shows how good of a line this is is that I agree with everything you said, except that I think that both will get 0.8's, for a just-under 1.6.

Spot said...

While The Originals seemed to disappoint even with its best lead-in, that same lead-in had its weakest season premiere ever. And facing The Voice is roughly equivalent to facing Grey's Anatomy and Glee on Thursdays skew-wise. So I'm giving The Originals a -.2 to +.1 range from its debut. Meanwhile, Supernatural is used to tough time-slots and is not in the business of being a disaster ratings-wise.

Over. Though if I'm horribly wrong about this my disdain for Tuesday Questions will return with a vengeance.

Spot said...

Over

Spot said...

Over. 0.8 and 0.9, at least.

Spot said...

Over

Spot said...

Over

Spot said...

Over. by a half point

Spot said...

I will go Over.


Originals: 1.0
Supernatural: .9


It's tough, because Tuesday still has potent players, even though altogether it's weak.

Spot said...

Over...

Spot said...

My gut's churning, but it's being pulled more toward Over, so that's my pick.


Housekeeping note: Arrow finale got an 0.9.

Spot said...

0.8 + 0.9 = 1.7. So....over. Barely.

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