Wednesday, October 16, 2013

Spotted Ratings, Monday 10/14/13


WHAT MATTERS:
  • CBS' yanking of We Are Men led to only a minor week-to-week improvement for the two-hour comedy block. 2 Broke Girls improved by a few ticks in its return to 8:30 (and vastly improved on We Are Men), but the 9/8c repeat of The Big Bang Theory (2.2) was not nearly the kind of injection of new life that it was last year in the 8:30 post-How I Met Your Mother role. And with no lead-in bounce, Mom was down week-to-week again. Last year, CBS actually dreaded the return of Rules of Engagement because it did a lot worse than TBBT repeats. This time, I guess the silver lining is it's hard to see things getting much worse when Mike and Molly comes back in three weeks.
  • Sleepy Hollow inched down once again heading into a three-week hiatus, as did The Blacklist.
  • ABC had the best night on a week-to-week basis, rising with both Dancing with the Stars and Castle.

FULL TABLE:

InfoShowTimeslotTrue
A18-49 Skew Last LeLa Rank y2yTLa Ty2y
Dancing with the Stars Mon 2.1 21% +5%+0.1n/a 3/5 -5% +4% -1% 2.2
Castle 2.2 25% +16%+0.3+0.1 1/4 +0% +13% +7% 2.1
ABC:+8%+2%
How I Met Your Mother 3.1 49% +3%+0.1n/a 2/4 +0% +3% -3% 3.0
2 Broke Girls 2.6 41% +13%+0.3+1.3 2/4 -24% +44% +24% 2.5
The Big Bang Theory (R) 2.2 33% -4% -35% 2.3
Mom 2.0 34% -5%-0.1-0.1 4/4 n/a -5% -33% 2.0
Hostages 1.2 30% +0%+0.0-0.1 3/4 n/a -0% -43% 1.2
CBS:+6%-23%
The Voice Mon 4.5 41% -2%-0.1n/a 4/4 -6% -3% -7% 4.5
The Blacklist 3.0 35% -3%-0.1-0.1 4/4 n/a -3% -9% 2.5
NBC:-2%-8%
Bones 2.0 35% -5%-0.1n/a 4/5 +0% -2% +54% 2.0
Sleepy Hollow 2.7 45% -4%-0.1-0.1 5/5 n/a -4% +74% 2.9
Fox:-4%+65%
Hart of Dixie 0.4 48% +0%+0.0n/a 1/2 -20% +0% -27% 0.4
Beauty and the Beast 0.3 42% +0%+0.0+0.0 1/2 -75% +0% -25% 0.3
CW:+0%-26%
Big5:+1%-1%

KEY (click to expand)
A18-49 - Adults 18-49 rating. Percentage of US TV-owning adults 18-49 watching the program.
Skew - Percentage of adults 18-49 within the show's total viewership.
Last - A18-49 difference (percent and numerical) from the show's previous episode.
LeLa - A18-49 difference between the show's lead-in and its lead-in for the previous episode.
Rank - The A18-49 rating's rank among the show's episodes so far this season.
y2y - Percent difference between A18-49 and the show's rating a year ago.
TLa - Percent difference between A18-49 and the network's rating in the timeslot one week ago.
Ty2y - Percent difference between A18-49 and the network's rating in the timeslot one year ago.
True - A metric that adjusts the A18-49 rating for overall viewing levels, competition and lead-in. PRELIMINARY CALCULATION. For finals, see SpotVault.

(R) - Repeat.

Much more detail on these numbers at the New Daily Spotted Ratings page.

More Spotted Ratings in the Index.

9 comments:

Spot said...

Whoa, I was way off on the Question. I wasn't counting on the BBT repeat ending up on the lower side.

Spot said...

I thought some people were vastly overestimating the repeat of TBBT. 2.0-ish was my initial expectation. Shame for CBS as I'm loving 'Mom' but at least I picked the right side ;)

Spot said...

CBS is totally gonna have just one returning comedy hit next season. The new ABC!

Spot said...

I was way off the question. I actually looked up TBBT repeat numbers on monday from last season, hence my guess, but appears it was way off. I think mondays in general are contamined for CBS now. How I Met Your Mother is still doing very very good. I don't see it having any problems being the 3rd comedy of the year relatively comfortably. Elsewhere, the blacklist is a bonafida hit (I really think NBC should take a risk and have it anchor wednesdays midseason when it still has buzz and when it has the olympics promotional platform behind it). Castle is a survivor of epic proportions, Bones is still holding on and I would feel better if Sleepy Hollow would stop falling, especially since there is an hiatus ahead (even if, assuming Almost Human works, the pairing could create positive synergies). The CW is a disaster, nothing else to say there.

Spot said...

@Spot,


Random place to ask (I know I keep doing this, sorry), will you publish any analysis of the ad estimates for this year? There are some surprising results there IMO, such as the fact that CSI actually has an ad rate slightly higher than CM even though CM has superior ratings and the skew is identical. I am curious to know if you have any ideas on what could explain stuff like this.

Spot said...

broke 2.6 + bbt (r) 2.2 + mom 2.0 = 6.8

Spot said...

Stupid under achieving Big Bang. YOU BUSTED MY WIN STREAK, _________!

Spot said...

Hoping to do something on Friday. Not sure what to make of that particular case, though.

Spot said...

Thanks, will be looking forward to it. I have been playing with some regressions around the numbers but it is hard to justify some of the trends. Others are quite obvious though, the 18-34 (proxied by the skew) continues to be the most relevant indicator that we have. Maybe the problem with cases like that is that the skew is not that good of an indicator for some reason, it could happen I guess. Anyway, I will leave it for the friday post then!

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