Thursday, October 10, 2013

Spotted Ratings, Wednesday 10/9/13


WHAT MATTERS:
  • The mostly downward week three trend continued to Wednesday, when most shows were down roughly 10% week-to-week. ABC saw 9:30 newbie Super Fun Night take the large week two drop most expected, down 22% from the premiere, though after finals non-adjustments it's still at a good level. A finals downtick for Nashville left it at a disappointing -16% week-to-week, though.
  • The CW's Tuesday momentum couldn't continue onto Wednesday as Arrow disappointingly only managed to get back to its finale numbers. Given that softness and a finals uptick, I'm willing to say it was a reasonably positive premiere for The Tomorrow People, which ended up matching Arrow's demo (I expected TTP to premiere at 0.9 with Arrow two ticks higher). We'll see what happens next week.
  • On NBC, Revolution inched downward again, Law and Order: SVU continued its rapid evening out two weeks after that massive premiere, and Ironside was down 15%, doing nothing to change its negative premiere night narrative. 
  • The broadcasters' 10/9c struggles may be partly attributable to cable, where there was an epic clash going down between A&E's Duck Dynasty (3.2) and FX's premiere of American Horror Story: Coven (3.0). For AHS, it's an absolutely remarkable turnaround given that season two debuted at 2.2 and actually declined big from there (all the way to 1.3 by the finale).

FULL TABLE:

InfoShowTimeslotTrue
A18-49 Skew Last LeLa Rank y2yTLa Ty2y
The Middle 2.2 34% -4%-0.1n/a 3/3 -8% -4% -8% 1.9
Back in the Game 1.8 35% -5%-0.1-0.1 3/3 n/a -5% -10% 1.5
Modern Family 3.9 47% -7%-0.3-0.1 3/3 -20% -7% -19% 3.5
Super Fun Night 2.5 48% -22%-0.7-0.3 2/2 n/a -22% -49% 1.7
Nashville 1.6 35% -16%-0.3-0.7 3/3 -43% -16% -42% 1.4
ABC:-12%-31%
Survivor 2.5 33% -7%-0.2n/a 3/4 -11% -7% -11% 2.2
Criminal Minds 2.6 30% -4%-0.1-0.2 3/3 -13% -4% -15% 2.2
CSI 1.9 27% -10%-0.2-0.1 3/3 -27% -7% -27% 1.5
CBS:-6%-17%
Revolution 1.5 35% -6%-0.1n/a 3/3 -50% -6% +20% 1.4
Law and Order: SVU 1.6 32% -20%-0.4-0.1 3/3 -11% -20% -9% 1.5
Ironside 1.1 27% -15%-0.2-0.4 2/2 n/a -19% -44% 1.0
NBC:-15%-15%
The X Factor Wed 2.2 39% -8%-0.2n/a 3/5 -37% -9% -37% 2.0
Fox:-9%-37%
Arrow 0.9 42% n/an/an/a 1/1 -31% +64% -33% 0.8
The Tomorrow People 0.9 49% n/an/an/a 1/1 n/a +125% -10% 0.9
CW:+89%-23%
Big5:-5%-27%

KEY (click to expand)
A18-49 - Adults 18-49 rating. Percentage of US TV-owning adults 18-49 watching the program.
Skew - Percentage of adults 18-49 within the show's total viewership.
Last - A18-49 difference (percent and numerical) from the show's previous episode.
LeLa - A18-49 difference between the show's lead-in and its lead-in for the previous episode.
Rank - The A18-49 rating's rank among the show's episodes so far this season.
y2y - Percent difference between A18-49 and the show's rating a year ago.
TLa - Percent difference between A18-49 and the network's rating in the timeslot one week ago.
Ty2y - Percent difference between A18-49 and the network's rating in the timeslot one year ago.
True - A metric that adjusts the A18-49 rating for overall viewing levels, competition and lead-in. PRELIMINARY CALCULATION. For finals, see SpotVault.

(R) - Repeat.

Much more detail on these numbers at the New Daily Spotted Ratings page.

More Spotted Ratings in the Index.

10 comments:

Spot said...

Oh, man, sure wasn't expecting that ugly Arrow number. (or at least, ugly per expectations) On the flipside, though, Vampire Diaries was down noticeably, too, so maybe I should have. Either way, I always hate getting Questions right for the wrong reasons.

Spot said...

I think I'm one of the few people out there who actually like Super Fun Night, so I might be delusionally optimistic about it's chances, but going 3.2>2.5 is still not the worst thing in the world for it. I will cheerlead for SFN until it is absolutely dead!

Spot said...

Damn I am disappointed with the cw combo. I did however take some credit with the fact that I spent last year upfronts arguing that breaking up the arrow supernatural duo was a bad idea not so much for supernatural but more for arrow since it was not as strong as people thought it was. It had such an amazing finale though, I had hoped it could have pulled of a bigger premiere. Damn it. On the other hand, I am quite happyish about revolution. It appears to have stabilized (praying for that upwards adjustment) and meanwhile NBC collapses surrounding it. SVU and Parenthood are on its level, the comedies are mostly below its level, Ironside is DOA and even chicago fire was only 0.6 tents above it after a still potent the voice. There is hope for it!

Spot said...

I didn't watch the show cause I didn't like the trailers and it doesn't look like my sort of thing and I actually think it will fail but I think that it took a pretty normal drop given the fact that the lead-in itself also went down a few notches and that it was the normal week 2 drop.

Spot said...

Yeah, compared to the carnage over on Tuesdays on ABC, SFN's week two drop doesn't look too bad. But thanks for the reassurance, considering that I'm biased I don't trust my own rationalisations.

Spot said...

Retention is better than Suburgatory got from the timeslot. Even if it holds this for awhile though, it's still not a power hour the network should want to keep for next season or whatever.


Tomorrow isn't surprising, but Arrow kinda is considering the premieres of Vampire/Supernatural. Hmm.

Spot said...

Missed again. Maybe Supernatural was a better partner for Arrow than most thought? Maybe Tuesday's just weak enough that a decent effort can have better results.

Spot said...

Such mood swings!

Spot said...

Never expected to see two cablers nailing a 3 in the same slot. This has got to be a one-time thing. I'd have thought this was AHS just siphoning off some of the Duck Dynasty audience, except that Dynasty's big drop was LAST week, so...maybe Duck Dynasty starting to go down?

Spot said...

Ahah true. But that's because the rating results were actually polarizing for me since I was pulling for Revolution, Arrow and The Tomorrow People and I think Revolution did wellish and Arrow did badish (The Tomorrow People did very well though given the lead-in)

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