Tuesday, September 3, 2013

Fall 2013 Best Case/Worst Case, Tuesday 8/7c

The Basics:

bc Rank y2y Rank TPUT Rank bc/TPUT Rank
Tuesday 8:00 9.3 11 -9% 10 33.2 11 28% 10

The 2012-13 season was brutal for Tuesday programming in general, but the 8:00 hour was the healthiest of the night, and Tuesday was one of just two nights of the week on which the 8:00 hour had the most broadcast viewing. This was mostly because NBC scheduled The Voice in the 8:00 hour for most of its two seasons, but CBS was also at its strongest with the mothership NCIS, and ABC did best in this hour in the fall with the Dancing with the Stars results.

The Shows:

Image Marvel's Agents of S.H.I.E.L.D. (NEW!) Slot Average
Slot Orig Avg
Premieres September 24 1.65
Best Case: The association with the third-highest-grossing film ever helps create huge initial sampling, and a strong writing team and a cast full of stars in the making keeps a huge chunk of those samplers on board. It battles its CBS counterpart to be TV's top drama and wins it across the whole season (though it's close in spring). 3.20.

Worst Case:
The association with The Avengers also means people inevitably make comparisons to The Avengers. And SHIELD suffers from those comparisons, especially in the acting and visuals departments. A front-loaded 1.60 average, and while it still has borderline-worthy numbers, ABC opts to cut its losses and cancel it after one full season.

It's become somewhat en vogue lately to say this show is setting up for disappointment. I suppose it depends on your expectations, but I still feel there's enough pedigree behind the scenes that this will be a hit program, though more of an Arrow-type player than a mega-game changer. I'm giving it a 2.60 average, tailing off into the low 2's late in the season, but ABC will have too many other problems to even remotely consider a cancellation.
Dancing with the Stars Fall
2.03 1.95
Celebrity Wife Swap
1.83 1.91
1.38 1.52

Image NCIS Slot Average
Premieres September 24 2.82
Best Case: SHIELD is a big disappointment and makes little real impact on the NCIS, which returns to its usual less-than-league-average decline trajectory. Just -7% to a still best-drama-on-broadcast 3.11.

Worst Case:
SHIELD might be the most legitimate competition NCIS has had to deal with since the American Idol days, and the effect will be very noticeable. After an incredible decade, the cracks finally begin to appear. Drops over 20% to a 2.65.

SHIELD will mean that, for the second straight year, NCIS takes the largest drop in series history. But after losing to SHIELD in the season's first few weeks, NCIS ultimately proves the victor of the showdown, winning by around a half point in the spring. -13% to a 2.90.
Slot Orig Avg
y2y Label
-11% big hit3.35 3.24
True Sitch
3.24 +3%
Last Pick Miss
3.45 -3%
2012-13 Slot
Tuesday 8:00

Image The Biggest Loser Slot Average
Premieres October 8 2.83
Best Case: TBL was a big eye-opener in posting raw numbers growth last year, and that was during the winter when it was literally the only respectable program on the entire network. This time it's in The Voice's halo, which improbably takes it up another small notch to a 2.44.

Worst Case:
The initial bounce from Jillian's return has totally worn off, and TBL returns to about the same Plus level as when it was running out of steam two years ago. Down 22% to a 1.80.

It's not an easy timeslot, but there's a lot to like about this scheduling. It seems like good counter-programming, plus it should get some synergy from The Voice, plus the one-hour episodes should cut down on the bloat. This will prove a very respectable third-place option, shedding just a tick from last winter to a 2.20.
Slot Orig Avg
The Voice Fall
y2y Label
+6% solid4.13 3.70
True SitchOff Their Rockers
2.21 +5%
Last Pick Miss1.45 1.39
1.90 +22%The Voice Spr
2012-13 Slot
Monday 8:004.10 4.28

Image Dads (NEW!) Slot Average
Slot Orig Avg
Premieres September 17 1.86
Best Case: With Seth MacFarlane behind it and a Family Guy-esque tone, it's able to carve out an 18-34 niche as SHIELD's audience ages up. Give it a decent improvement on last year's Raising Hope average at a 1.90, and it gets renewed.

Worst Case:
All the dudes that are supposed to be watching this will find two much more appealing drama options in the same timeslot. It averages a 1.15 and is replaced (probably by Raising Hope) after the baseball hiatus.

If Ben and Kate could last for sixteen episodes, I have a sneaking suspicion this show finds a way to stick around for a little while. They may ultimately look for a Tuesday option that's more compatible with 9-9, but maybe Dads gets a whirl after Family Guy on Sunday or something. I'm saying no season two, but no early hook either. 1.40.
Raising Hope
1.64 1.59
Hell's Kitchen
2.00 2.21

Image Brooklyn Nine-Nine (NEW!) Slot Average
Slot Orig Avg
Premieres September 17 1.70
Best Case: Andy Samberg is actually a pretty solid draw in the young male demos Fox is going for. If Dads hits its best case number, 9-9 can probably do even better. 2.05 and an easy renewal.

Worst Case:
The niche brand of NBC comedy makes its way to Fox! Paired with an incompatible Dads and up against a lot of competition, 9-9 is DOA and, though it outlasts Dads, it gets no help when Fox changes its lead-in. Gone after 13 at a 1.10.

Fox is going to have a pretty rough time on Tuesday, but as with The Mindy Project last year, they're probably going to want to be patient with something. Brooklyn Nine-Nine is the choice, as it has much more critical backing and shows minor growth from Dads and from the year-ago Ben and Kate episodes. 1.50 and a close call for season two.
Ben and Kate
1.34 1.28
Hell's Kitchen
2.00 2.21

Image The Originals (NEW!) Slot Average
Slot Orig Avg
Premieres October 3 0.56
Best Case: Unlike most spin-offs, The Originals brings over multiple significant, appealing characters from the mothership. Those characters help the show post a surprisingly high percentage of The Vampire Diaries' demo. 1.02 average.

Worst Case:
Turns out most of TVD's appeal is in the three lead actors, not in the Originals. The CW's young, fickle audience isn't particularly interested in devoting another hour of their lives to this universe. Plus, it faces SHIELD! It's basically a half-TVD at a 0.55. It gets a back nine and is renewal-worthy, but the CDub determines they'd be better off bringing these characters back to an also struggling mothership.

This show is going to do fine. Not great, not another TVD-type tentpole, not even an Arrow-sized hit, but certainly a cut above most of what the network has greenlit in the last several years. I give it a 0.78 average.
Hart of Dixie
0.55 0.57

The Network to Watch: ABC's got the most-hyped newbie of the fall, so it's got to be them. But the CW and Fox's shows would be the most interesting in many other slots.

The Picks: I'll probably be a viewer of SHIELD. We'll see about the Fox comedies.


Spot said...

I wonder how Cote de Pablo leaving NCIS will affect the show. I'm not a regular viewer, so I have no idea how much she matters in the grand scheme of things, but it may be something to consider.

I think you're right on the money regarding SHIELD.

Spot said...

Out of all of primetime this Fall, I think this hour is the most interesting. It's very diverse in terms of programming: 2 (new) sitcoms, both procedural and genre dramas, and a veteran reality show. And as an added bonus, ABC and The CW have scheduled their highest priority new show against each other. The only way it could be more exciting is if all of these shows were debuting at the same time instead of the staggered rollout we've got.

SHIELD and The Originals are my picks, but I have my eye on NCIS to see how Cote de Pablo's departure affects the show. I don't think we'll see the same level of audience defection similar to William Petersen's CSI departure, but it's worth looking at. And I pity 9-9 if Dads bombs and is replaced by Raising Hope. It feels more likely that if 9-9 has promise, it'd be moved down to :00 slot and Hope moves to 8:30.

Spot said...

Dads is like life. It's nothing but a failed intention. Everyone knows it, too. Pretty sure it's gonna be Worst Case (or worse even than that), and an easy add to the So Bad, It's Horrible page at TV Tropes.

Spot said...

I personally see Dads doing better and SHIELD doing worse than most are expecting. In my mind, SHIELD is just another big premiere, big drop type show.

Spot said...

I think that you may be overcompensating for going too high last year. I just don't see another -11% season. Only time will tell, but I think that we will see our fair share of pleasant surprises.

Spot said...

Are you referring to anything specific? I actually think it will be more like -8%/-9% this year because the new class should be stronger. I see there being at least three hits (SHIELD + 2 CBS comedies).

Spot said...

I'm with you on both counts.
I don't really see what's so different between Dads and the super-popular CBS Lorre comedies. The show generally seems pretty marketable and these sorts of shows tend to be critic-proof. I can see it sticking around for a while.
I am sceptical about SHIELD. It might be en vogue to say it will disappoint, but it's well-founded. There's a lot of hype, based around Whedon and the Avengers, but it seems like the type of show where Internet hype might not lead to tune-in. I also doubt the show's ability to live up to people's expectations, especially since it's a NCIS-type show. It's not hard to make comparisons with Terminator: The Sarah Connor Chronicles. I also don't think ABC has done a very good job promoting the show, focusing too much on the associations with the Marvel brand and not selling the show itself.
And this is from someone who will be watching SHIELD and won't be watching Dads.

Spot said...

No. I am just optimistic that we may see shows that underperformed last year evening out to where we thought that they would be now two years ago.

Spot said...

I think both NCIS and SHIELD can peacefully co-exist, because I believe the the former's audience will skew a bit older, and the latter's a bit younger. Losing the Tiva shipping might hurt a bit, but it was never really I don't see NCIS dropping more than 5-6% to 3.15 and I see SHIELD being strong at 3.0.

Biggest Loser will definitely benefit from cutting the bloat. Not having to be the anchor will help. I think it stands pat.

FOX's new comedies are DOA. Dads looks awful and I don't think Samberg's brand of humor will translate well outside of 3-5 minute SNL music videos and sketches. Both end up in the mid-1s.

The Originals are pretty popular characters in their own right, and they'll be able to stretch their fangs more without having to mix in with the main triangle, which looks to collapse under the weight of its own shipping. Solid season in the low-1s.

Spot said...

It is one thing to predict returning shows or clear bombs, it is another one to predict shows that we literally have no clue where they will land. I learned that while doing this, so kuddos to you for being brave at doing it every year. Here it goes:

Agents of Shield: We are somehow in line but I am more optimistic. I am going with a 2.85. I agree that fall will be obviously stronger than spring, but I think it will have the goods creatively to have a very strong season and be looked at as a very strong show. I agree that ABC will have much to do elsewhere to even consider canning it with these numbers.

NCIS: I have it at 2.92, which is virtually the same as what you have. I do have it beating Shield though, but it is a tossup, really hard to call. I think it will benefit from Cote de Pablo's departure in the opening weeks, which is when it would otherwise be the most vulnerable against Shield's premiere. I don't think it will grow in A18-49, but it won't be down by much there either.

TBL: I agree with you I think. I believe the voice halo effect will be enough to make it survive against the two heavy lifters on the timeslot. Besides, it is someow decent counter programming, I see it being close to your expected case. But the show really surprised me this winter, so we never know.

Dads: Your reasoning that it somehow may end up on Sunday makes a lot of sense. Maybe I should have thought of that. Anyway, I did not and my prediction was that it would flop, still air all 13 episodes on Tuesdays and air a 1.27 before being canned.

Brooklyn Nine-Nine: It does look to have the goods creatively. But 1) Its lead-in is a very safe bet to bomb; 2) Its targeted audience will be very busy elsewhere; 3) I have concerns about how compatible its lead-out is, no maybe there isn't even a halo effect there. Ultimately, I see it beating Dads in raw numbers, but it too will only last 13 episodes, because Fox bench of comedies is quite large. 1.40

The Originals: I agree 100% with your description that it will not be another TVD or even another Arrow but that it will do just fine. However, I have it higher than you at 0.87. It is hard to justify these differences, so let's just attribute it to me being more optimistic and a lot more inexperienced on this!

Spot said...

Yeah I agree that both shows can coexist but I think we will have epic battles on a weekly basis. My guess is that Shield wins fall, NCIS wins spring, with winter being up for grabs. But both will do very well in there. I am curious to see the effect it will have on the TRUE scores.

Spot said...

I actually have the league average drop (scripted shows only, so not exactly the same definition of league that Spot uses) dropping 11%. I think the new class will be a huge improvement over the last year, but there will still be a lot of bombs and there will still be a lot of problems with returning shows (even though I don't expect to see as many Smashes, Happy Endings and Touches as last year)

Spot said...

I said on my comment that I think Dads would actually do better if on CBS. I don't think it is the type of show that appeals that much to the FOX crowd of comedy. Besides, the show has no solid lead in and is up against strong heavy lifters. I doubt it has much room to survive. But it is not one of those that would completely shock me to see going the opposite way and making it, it could happen and I see the validity of your argument, I just think the cons are higher than the pros.

Spot said...

I think FOX is looking at an all male comedy block somewhere in midseason to be honest. Surviving Jack, Enlisted, Brooklyn Nine-Nine and Us and Them all seem to belong together somehow. And now Enlisted was moved to midseason. But I have no idea where that would fit on the schedule. And I don't think Brooklyn Nine-Nine can handle the fall in that slot and survive to be moved in the spring. But I don't know. They did bring back Breaking In to create a comedy block.

Spot said...

Had it been on CBS, I agree, success would probably be inevitable for Dads. I still think it has a chance on FOX though.

Post a Comment

© SpottedRatings.com 2009-2022. All Rights Reserved.