Saturday, September 7, 2013

Fall 2013 Best Case/Worst Case, Saturday 8/7c

The Basics:

bc Rank y2y Rank TPUT Rank bc/TPUT Rank
Saturday 8:00 4.1 21 -8% 9 27.4 21 15% 21

Saturday 8:00 is the least-viewed and the least-broadcast viewed hour of the whole week. I don't have a lot else to say!!!

The Shows:

Image Saturday Night Football Slot Average
Premieres August 31 0.95
Best Case: The premiere last Saturday was up a tenth year-to-year, and ABC's conferences are generally more interesting. Let's take it back up to just above its 2011 average at 2.30.

Worst Case:
The premiere would've been down if not for the game being so good. The increasingly fragmented world of college football TV takes a chunk out of the biggest stage. ABC is overrun with blowouts. Down 15% to a 1.82.

I guess I'm cheating a bit here since the first rating of the season (the 3.1 for the premiere) is already out. But last year the show that had already premiered as of its post (America's Next Top Model) ended up being one of my biggest misses. So I'll try not to be too influenced. I'm saying this ends up close to even with a 2.14. I think the difference in quality of games with Fox will grow.
Slot Orig Avg
Saturday Night Football
y2y Label
-4% hit(Fri)2.15 2.46
True SitchBet On Your Baby
2.46 -13%
Last Pick Miss0.50 0.66
2.05 +5%
2012-13 Slot
Saturday 8:30

Image CFB on Fox Slot Average
Premieres September 7 1.20
Best Case: There just wasn't that much awareness that Fox was airing football last year! The games are constantly promoed on the new Fox Sports 1. A bunch of compelling stories pop up out of nowhere in the Big 12 and Pac 12. It grows 20% to a 1.27.

Worst Case:
The Big 12 has no great teams, and the Pac 12's great teams are decidedly un-sexy. There's just no real interest in these games compared to the SEC/ACC/Big 10 fare over on ABC. Dives to a measly 0.90.

I'm going pretty close to the worst case here. Maybe I'm an east coast homer, but I just don't see the Big 12 and Pac 12 being as interesting going into the season unless USC surprises (and they were a big disappointment that may have hurt Fox last year). Down a tenth to a 0.96.
Slot Orig Avg
CFB on Fox
y2y Label
flop1.06 1.16
True SitchCops
1.16 -9%
Last Pick Miss0.92 1.06
1.20 -12%
2012-13 Slot
Saturday 8:00

The Network to Watch: I guess Fox, since they're still kind of new to this primetime football thing?

The Picks: Whichever college football game I like best!


Spot said...

I like to watch on ESPN Goal Line, so I can see a little of all the games.

Spot said...

ABC had Stanford/Oregon last year, but Fox had all the other good Pac-12 games, so I don't know how that works.

Bama/A&M will be on CBS in the late afternoon. Surprised they wouldn't flex that one to primetime, as they always do once a year, but maybe they prefer to wait until they can count it as part of the TV regular season numbers.

Spot said...

OK. Maybe, CBS is waiting for Alabama/LSU, as they have done in previous years. While I think that LSU is a better team than A&M, I think that the storyline is a little stronger in Alabama/A&M, given what happened last year.

Spot said...

I see both falling by the league average to high-1s and just under 1. Just too many other things to do for most people.

Spot said...

No comment on the shows.

My picks:
Likely sports, specifically NASCAR. (especially when Sprint Cup has Saturday races)

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