tag:blogger.com,1999:blog-3149153403168306818.post9182663154821176433..comments2023-09-30T09:11:03.048-04:00Comments on SpottedRatings.com: Fall 2013 Best Case/Worst Case, Tuesday 10/9cSpothttp://www.blogger.com/profile/01222504847153680060noreply@blogger.comBlogger7125tag:blogger.com,1999:blog-3149153403168306818.post-90153333371144274562013-09-26T17:10:50.582-04:002013-09-26T17:10:50.582-04:00The Syndicate, the UK show that is the basis of Lu...The Syndicate, the UK show that is the basis of Lucky 7, actually *does* work exactly like that, only without the premiere/finale episodes you suggest - it's just one episode per main character. (British series are typically that short anyway. We don't do the US network 22-a-year model.) I've thought all along that Lucky 7 should have been done like that, held on the bench, and used as a quickfire filler for a slot that needs it. It's actually a show where you can easily do the "limited series" promotion for. If it does well enough for renewal? Do a season two with an all-new syndicate! Repeat until cancellation! <br /><br />Now it looks as though *it* will be the show that needs filling in for.Spothttps://www.blogger.com/profile/01222504847153680060noreply@blogger.comtag:blogger.com,1999:blog-3149153403168306818.post-8472579026820173222013-09-24T00:38:01.115-04:002013-09-24T00:38:01.115-04:00Person of Interest is in a bad position. Between i...Person of Interest is in a bad position. Between its fairly serialized nature, a significantly weaker (though more compatible) lead-in, complete lack of buzz, and no awards love, I do not foresee any growth or even a decent hold. I will stick with the prediction I made after the (ratings-wise) weak season finale and say it goes down 15% to mid-2s, and it can't take another hit like that. Unfortunately, I think it will, and will go four-and-out. That sucks, because it is my favorite show.<br /><br /><br />Lucky 7 seems like the most interesting case to me, as I don't think it will instatank like many do. It could work as a short-run series of 9 episodes: the win and the immediate aftermath, one on each main character, and the finale. Give a good amount of characterization, and a good selection of rootable heroes and clever villains<br /><br /><br />Chicago Fire has the highest expectations of the three, having a lead-in that will likely be at least a full point (possibly a point-and-a-half) stronger than its competitors'. I don't think it can afford a soft start. That means a high-2s debut, and I don'tSpothttps://www.blogger.com/profile/01222504847153680060noreply@blogger.comtag:blogger.com,1999:blog-3149153403168306818.post-37751076115197458642013-09-18T13:37:11.418-04:002013-09-18T13:37:11.418-04:00Yes, I didn't think of that with Chicago Fire....Yes, I didn't think of that with Chicago Fire. I'd probably take 0.1 or so off of the average, though there's still a pretty decent chance that the midseason plan changes if the pairing works well.<br /><br />I think most of our discrepancy on Lucky 7 can be explained by our even bigger discrepancy on Trophy Wife. If it actually does that well, I could see L7 hitting your number.Spothttps://www.blogger.com/profile/01222504847153680060noreply@blogger.comtag:blogger.com,1999:blog-3149153403168306818.post-15321546886498921252013-09-17T15:54:55.349-04:002013-09-17T15:54:55.349-04:00I agree, this is a safe bet to go for when it come...I agree, this is a safe bet to go for when it comes to positive year to year comparisons.Spothttps://www.blogger.com/profile/01222504847153680060noreply@blogger.comtag:blogger.com,1999:blog-3149153403168306818.post-89236993277847288092013-09-17T15:53:45.156-04:002013-09-17T15:53:45.156-04:00This is yet another very interesting hour of broad...This is yet another very interesting hour of broadcast. So much to look forward to this season! I go back and forth a lot on my predictions for POI and CF but here we go:<br /><br /><br /><br />Person of Interest: I too think it will retain a large chunck LA's audience but I truly believe that LA's audience will have a collapse a la H50 last year as it is tasked with facing the voice. So, because I don't see POI regularly beating its lead-in or fully retaining 100% its audience, I am going with a 2.27. That would be down 22% but I am predicting an overall bad year for CBS dramas, so it wouldn't look as bad as it sounds now.<br /><br /><br />Chicago Fire: If the question with POI was how much it would fall, here is more how much it can grow. A note that I think might be relevant and that you didn't mention is that, at least for now, the plan is that Chicago Fire won't have the voice support for at least half of the season. NBC being NBC there is a good chance the comedies before it are huge flops so it could bring it down with it. So I am affraid of being too optimistic. This being said, I also think that if that happens, even NBC will figure out that they have to save the show somehow. I think it will have excellent year to year comparisons in the fall and be even or slighly down in spring. My guess is a 2.03. That would be up 11% in raw numbers!<br /><br /><br />Lucky 7: I think it will flop but I don't think it will bomb as hard as you are expecting it to right out of the gate. Besides, I don't see ABC rushing to replace it. It is a low profile hour and the year to year comparisons won't be that ugly after all. I say it airs all 13, averages a 1.32 and is out. <br /><br /><br /><br />Network to watch: For your reasoning only, NBC, but I have to say that I am also extremely curious about CBS<br /><br /><br />My picks: Person of Interest. I did watch the first 8 or so episodes of Chicago Fire and I liked it but I ended up never catching up beyond that so I don't think I will be there this year. Maybe next yearSpothttps://www.blogger.com/profile/01222504847153680060noreply@blogger.comtag:blogger.com,1999:blog-3149153403168306818.post-30169027272515476992013-09-17T11:50:36.901-04:002013-09-17T11:50:36.901-04:00Chicano, er Chicago Fire is certainly of the most ...Chicano, er Chicago Fire is certainly of the most importance to its net, since they're searching for that big procedural that can sustain a lengthy run, and they seem to believe this is it.<br /><br />POI is also important, though, since this is CBS moving to finally break the Tuesdays @ 10 "mini-curse".<br /><br />Lucky 7's got "failure" written all over. The ads make it look kinda lurid.<br /><br />My picks:<br />POI live, SOA On DemandSpothttps://www.blogger.com/profile/01222504847153680060noreply@blogger.comtag:blogger.com,1999:blog-3149153403168306818.post-89141911734609933722013-09-17T11:35:05.525-04:002013-09-17T11:35:05.525-04:00If any hour is going to go positive on a year-to-y...If any hour is going to go positive on a year-to-year basis, I feel like it's going to be this one. And that's a really odd statement to make considering this is a 10:00 pm hour and ABC will probably do worse with Lucky 7 (which should feel lucky if the show gets to air 7 episodes) than PP and BoP.<br /><br /><br />While I think PoI should have moved to Mondays, a Tuesday move makes sense for two reasons: it was weaker than Mondays and new shows haven't worked the past two years. Putting PoI here is one way CBS is trying not to repeat past follies, the other being not putting new shows on Fridays.<br /><br /><br />What I'll be more interested in is how Chicago Fire's bump will (spoiler alert to my opinion tomorrow) influence its spin-off Chicago PD, which I'm betting will replace Ironside on Wednesdays.Spothttps://www.blogger.com/profile/01222504847153680060noreply@blogger.com