Wednesday, January 15, 2014

The Question, Wednesday 1/15/14: Will This American Idol Season Sing a Different Tune?


American Idol premiere night (and the following morning of ratings) was once the time of the year when Fox executives licked their chops, knowing the entire course of the TV season was about to swing massively in their favor. Nowadays, they're just holding their breaths, praying another huge swath doesn't desert the one-time Death Star. There's yet another shake-up on the judging panel, including the return of Jennifer Lopez, and yet another promotional campaign that reminds you this is the one franchise that creates legitimate music stars. Will this American Idol season sing a different tune? That's The Question for Wednesday, January 15, 2014.

American Idol Last Season
6.0 (premiere, 1/16/13, -19% year-to-year)
3.90 (Wednesday average, -27%)
3.68 (Thursday average, -25%)
3.6 (finale, 5/16/13, -44%)

It'd be surprising if this Idol premiere replicates the massive -44% year-to-year from last season's finale, because that finale had irregularly high competition from the other broadcasters. However, the season's declines undeniably got much worse over the course of last season; most points late last year were in the -30% range. Looking at this, and at how terribly The X Factor fared in the fall, it seems likely there will be real damage to this season's initial sampling. Even managing a second straight -20%ish premiere (or upper 4's) would likely be considered a positive. I think it will be closer to -30%.

Over/Under: 4.25.

No entries accepted after 6:00am ET the morning after the date in the headline. If editing your pick, please leave a separate comment.

26 comments:

Spot said...

Definitely Over. Weak competition (no CBS originals on Wed/Thur).

Spot said...

Over. I can't bring myself to go the other way on this one.

Spot said...

Under.

Spot said...

It'll be a different tune alright - the tune of blood gurgling up from the massive wound in its neck. Under.

Spot said...

I had actually typed Over, I deleted for Under and now I am back with the Over. A very reluctant, "I honestly think this one can go in may directions", Over.

Spot said...

Over. As always a tight decision, but I think it might just have enough.

Spot said...

Under

Spot said...

I had been thinking 4.5, a 25% drop year to year. Over.

Spot said...

Over.
I think high 4s, maybe even 5.0. Last two years Idol dropped so much more than the league average dropped, so perhaps it evens a bit this season? Obviously, I have none whatsoever facts to support such a claim, so it's just a my hunch.

Spot said...

I actually think it's over but just cuz I want them to fail: Under.

Spot said...

For the third time this season, it's a Question on a reality franchise I'd love to see the end of. I regretted the missed Under on the TBL Question more than any pick I've made so far, and so I'm going to do what I did with the Batchelor Question - go with what I don't want to happen and hope I'm wrong.

Over.

Spot said...

Hah, I want the show to fail too but went Over to make me feel less bad about any success! A 4.3 would be perfect for me.

Spot said...

Mindy adjusted down to a 1.1, and I think we might be in for a good test of the importance of skew. On 18-49 it's now a cancel, but when the audience is so concentrated in the Ostroff demo...

I would not be shocked if FOX cancel it and Netflix pick it up. It certainly feels like a show that gets a streaming-friendly audience, and it'd be a splashy move for a company not afraid to make one.

Spot said...

I'll say Over but not by much. Maybe 4.4/4.5.

On the other hand, there's been so little buzz for this season that I could see this going Under too.

Spot said...

My belief in Brooklyn Nine-Nine renewal was never based on expecting its ratings to magically surge during 2nd half of the season, Super Bowl or not. But on:
Reasonable assumption The Mindy Project falling bellow 1.0 in A18-49 at some point.
and
Fox not wanting to surround New Girl with 3 rookies comes next fall.

Simply, if TMP A18-49ers fall to 1 million or roughly 0.8 ratings (which might not happen this spring, but surely would next fall in case of renewal), with such a small viewership it's impossible to have enough W18-34ers inside it to support show's survival. It would have to be unheard young and female skewing, plus not to drop any more.

Spot said...

Wow at those 300% from Supernatural. Tuesdays as a whole are very healthy indeed. The most shocking to think about is ABC which even with its underwhelming results is up 20%, just shows how low the bar was last year.

Spot said...

Great & nerve-wracking line, Spot. I'll go... oooooooooovvvvv--UNDER!

Spot said...

But this week was 40% skew, this show usually pulls like NG, 60%+ so... it's a fluke? or a trend?

Spot said...

Or a typo! I accidentally put Trophy Wife's viewership there. Thanks!

Spot said...

Under at 3.8/3.9. There's just no buzz this season; no one cares anymore. Also, I'm wondering: if Modern Family does well tonight, could it be the first time ever a competitor has beaten an Idol premiere?

Spot said...

I think the series still has some juice left. Over at 4.8.

Spot said...

Over.

Spot said...

Under, but I hope I'm wrong.

Spot said...

Modern Family hasn't gotten higher than 3.5 since early November, it would be a bit surprising if it managed to do so tonight against increased competition.

Spot said...

Under (4.1)

Spot said...

It doesn't feel like there's much hype for this at all. That said, I'm going slightly over with a 4.3.

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