|American Idol Last Season|
|6.0 (premiere, 1/16/13, -19% year-to-year) |
3.90 (Wednesday average, -27%)
3.68 (Thursday average, -25%)
3.6 (finale, 5/16/13, -44%)
It'd be surprising if this Idol premiere replicates the massive -44% year-to-year from last season's finale, because that finale had irregularly high competition from the other broadcasters. However, the season's declines undeniably got much worse over the course of last season; most points late last year were in the -30% range. Looking at this, and at how terribly The X Factor fared in the fall, it seems likely there will be real damage to this season's initial sampling. Even managing a second straight -20%ish premiere (or upper 4's) would likely be considered a positive. I think it will be closer to -30%.
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