Wednesday, January 29, 2014

Spotted Ratings, Friday 1/24/14


WHAT MATTERS:
  • Fox's flip of Raising Hope and Enlisted appears to have paid off. Enlisted (1.0) surged to well above its first two results (and anything Raising Hope has done all season) with a major assist from the biggest-yet Friday episode of Bones (1.8). Amid the Enlisted rejoicing, keep in mind this situation was tailor-made to create the appearance of momentum, and a 1.0 out of a 1.8 still isn't that much of a performance on its own. It looks a whole lot better because of how hard the show was sabotaged in its opening weeks. It will need to, at bare minimum, keep this up going forward. But it's definitely a start.
  • With CBS in repeats, there was good news all around. ABC had new season highs for the second time in three weeks with Shark Tank (2.2) and 20/20 (1.9). NBC saw a steady Grimm (1.5), noteworthy as a piece of trivia simply because the show has changed week-to-week by at least 0.2 for every single airing this season. And they had a one-tenth uptick for the finale of Dracula (1.0), which likely shouldn't be counted out until we see how Hannibal does here after the Olympics.

FULL TABLE:

InfoShowTimeslotTrue
A18-49 Skew Last LeLa Rank y2yTLa Ty2y
Last Man Standing 1.4 28% +0%+0.0n/a 3/14 n/a +0% +56% 1.6
The Neighbors 0.8 27% -11%-0.1+0.0 13/14 -60% -11% +0% 0.9
Shark Tank 2.2 34% +5%+0.1-0.1 1/15 n/a +5% +57% 2.6
20/20 1.9 29% +12%+0.2+0.1 1/19 +36% +15% +41% 2.1
ABC:+6%+44%
Undercover Boss (R) 1.2 24% -27% -8% 1.4
Hawaii Five-0 (R) 1.0 16% -33% -5% 1.2
Blue Bloods (R) 1.0 13% -29% +0% 1.3
CBS:-30%-4%
Dateline Fri 1.4 24% -7%-0.1n/a 3/14 +17% -7% +40% 1.6
Grimm 1.5 32% +0%+0.0-0.1 4/11 n/a -3% +20% 1.8
Dracula 1.0 42% +11%+0.1+0.0 4/10 n/a +11% -17% 1.2
NBC:-1%+13%
Bones 1.8 31% +20%+0.3n/a 9/14 -22% +24% +33% 2.0
Enlisted 1.0 39% +67%+0.4+1.1 1/3 n/a +43% -9% 1.1
Raising Hope 0.8 43% +14%+0.1-0.5 1/13 -53% +33% -27% 1.1
Fox:+29%+10%
The Carrie Diaries 0.3 42% -25%-0.1n/a 3/11 -40% -25% -40% 0.4
Supernatural (R) 0.2 40% -33% -43% 0.2
CW:-29%-41%
Big5:-3%+11%

KEY (click to expand)
A18-49 - Adults 18-49 rating. Percentage of US TV-owning adults 18-49 watching the program.
Skew - Percentage of adults 18-49 within the show's total viewership.
Last - A18-49 difference (percent and numerical) from the show's previous episode.
LeLa - A18-49 difference between the show's lead-in and its lead-in for the previous episode.
Rank - The A18-49 rating's rank among the show's episodes so far this season.
y2y - Percent difference between A18-49 and the show's rating a year ago.
TLa - Percent difference between A18-49 and the network's rating in the timeslot one week ago.
Ty2y - Percent difference between A18-49 and the network's rating in the timeslot one year ago.
True - A metric that adjusts the A18-49 rating for overall viewing levels, competition and lead-in. PRELIMINARY CALCULATION. For finals, see SpotVault.

(R) - Repeat.

Much more detail on these numbers at the New Daily Spotted Ratings page.

More Spotted Ratings in the Index.

21 comments:

Spot said...

I love Dracula, but I'm unsure on the renewal. I don't think they possibly lost money on it, but it got way to low to get renewed. If it had stayed at a 1.0 most of the season instead of a lot of .9's and one .7, it would be renewed, but it blew it

Spot said...

Bones to Friday is quietly one of the big scheduling success stories of the season. Almost Human is doing Bones-like numbers on Monday and Bones has vastly strengthened Fox's traditionally weak Fridays.



If Rake struggles on Thursday, then Fox has the option of a timeslot switch: move Surviving Jack/Enlisted to 9 on Thursday and move Rake to Friday at 9. It wouldn't regard it as much of a downgrade for Rake since Bones should be a more compatible lead-in than Idol.

Spot said...

You know, I really like that (and there's no "if" on the Rake struggle). And if Enlisted was at the top of the hour to start with...

Spot said...

Wow...Bones did better than Rake. That's bad.

Spot said...

The issue with Bones is that the cast is probably expensive, and it's hard to change unlike L&O or CSI, since the series' main focus is on Booth and Brennan, while procedurals I said before focus on the actual cases. And FOX does have other good Friday lead-ins; Gordon Ramsey always does well there, with Kitchen Nightmares and Masterchef Jr. strong performers.

Spot said...

If they get Thursday Night Football, it's only something like 8 games.
Then I'd expect Bones on the rest of Thursdays, paired with another
procedural. Perhaps Almost Human, if it can sustain its (rather
unexpected) ratings revival. Those procedurals should be more proof to
erratic scheduling caused by Fox having both football and baseball
during fall. They can always move one of those shows to Friday when Idol returns. Or both, if they believe one of their serialized shows is
worth Thursday timeslot.

I expect Utopia to air 2 hours on
Wednesday regardless. And if they don't get TNF, then one more hour of
Fox's Survivor on Thursday. Bones on Friday in that case, new drama on
Thursday 9 PM in wishful thinking Utopia is gonna be a good lead-in.

Spot said...

Lol at the future week when Shark Tank beats Shield.

Spot said...

I can't see Fox scheduling Utopia opposite Survivor.

Spot said...

Why? Survivor isn't that much of a powerhouse a la NCIS or TBBT, and the only other competition in the Wednesday @ 8 slot are The Middle, which has never been a MF performer, Arrow, which is on a lower-rated network, and...whatever NBC puts there. Yeah, there's also Criminal Minds and Modern Family, but it isn't that bad either, and Utopia's targeting a different audience from all shows I listed. Just sayin'.

Spot said...

The thing is we don't even know what form Utopia will take scheduling-wise. In the Netherlands it's a nightly stripped show, like Big Brother is in Europe - that doesn't fit US scheduling at all though (as we saw when CBS did it in season 1). I'd reckon they do a weekly hour long show.

Any main net who gets TNF will have only a handful of Thursdays to fill in, and FOX has baseball doing that anyway. They might do a "special night" Utopia for any other gap.

Spot said...

Well, it's either against The Voice, either against Survivor. There's only so much days in a week, and at each weekday there's some tough competition.


But I'm assuming it's Wednesday (or Wednesday & Thursday if it is 3-hourer) because then Idol simply takes Utopia's timeslot in January, same as Fox used to do with The X-Factor. Which was perfectly logical - that way they don't need to relocate bunch of scripted shows in January.

Spot said...

But surely it is 2 or 3 hours a week. I doubt they'd go into bidding war if it was 1-hourer. Not reality king Fox.
Next, it surely won't be scheduled at Monday against The Voice. Plus, Fox doesn't need to fix Monday, things are very good there for them compared to some other days.
Then it is either Wednesday 8 PM to mirror Idol's scheduling as I suggested, either Tuesday 8 PM to avoid direct clash with Survivor as Oliver suggested. If it is 2-hourer, then Thursday 8 PM is a possibility, but in that case it would have to be 2-hourer *each* week.

Spot said...

Why singling out Shield? This is a list of shows that Shark Tank has beaten or is on the same playground:
- Dancing with the Stars
- Castle
- Agents of Shield
- The Goldbergs
- Trophy Wife
- Killer Women
- The Middle
- Suburgtory
- Super Fun Night
- Nashville
- Wonderland
- The Assets
- The Taste
- Last Man Standing
- The Neighbors
- 20/20
- Once Upon a Time
- Revenge
- Betrayal

In another words... Shark Tank systematically ranks lower than Modern Family, Grey's Anatomy and Scandal... And that's it. Even GA, they did hit a 2.3 in the fall, so not that far off either.

IF you extend to other networks:
- The Biggest Looser
- Chicago Fire
- Revolution
- SVU
- Chicago PD
- All NBC Comedies
- Parenthood
- Dateline
- Grimm
- Dracula
- Mike and Molly
- Mom
- Intelligence
- Person of Interest
- Survivor
- Criminal Minds
- CSI
- The Millers (when it aired sans TBBT)
- The Crazy Ones
- Two and a Half Men
- Elementary
- Undercover Boss
- Hawaii Five-0
- Blue Bloods
- The Amazing Race
- The Good Wife
- The Mentalist
- Sleepy Hollow
- Almost Human
- The entire FOX comedy
- The X-Factor
- Glee
- Bones
- Masterchef Jr.
- The entire CW programming

In another words, missing from the list: The Voice and The Blacklist from NBC (and The Blacklist did post a 2.3 this week), How I Met Your Mother, 2 Broke Girls, the NCIS twins, The Big Bang Theory) and American Idol (Fox)

So there you go. There are 11 programs on the entire broadcast spectrum (discounting Sports and special events) that do systematically better than Shark Tank. Just wow.

Spot said...

SHIELD probably got pointed out there because it was so highly touted and was so big out of the gate (similar premiere in Plus to what Sarah Connor Chronicles got out of an NFL playoff lead-in!).

Your broader point is, of course, spectacular.

Spot said...

The complicated thing here is that Utopia is a year-round show. It's designed to last an entire year. Assuming FOX stick with that, they likely have to cancel Idol to fit it in multiple hours.

Spot said...

They won't cancel Idol. But You already knew it.

Thank you for information about show's format. I jumped to conclusions Utopia is replacement for TXF, because Cowell went back to UK simultaneously. Probably just a coincidence. From your info now I see Utopia is probably summer show. Over summer it can air similar to original format.

Only other possibility is they completely redesign show's format for it to air during fall in USA. May happen if Fox is desperate to fill void left by TXF, but I think it's doubtful.

Spot said...

Yes, it's an ABC show that was super highly touted and underperforming vs. an ABC show that I didn't know existed for its first year and way overperforming and on a Friday. I can't think of any other currently running ABC show that was so hyped up by the network in its first season. At least for S1s, Grey just seemed like that ER-ish show sponging off Desperate's viewers, and Scandal was that soap sponging off Grey's viewers.


But some people enjoy incredibly pedantic and condescending posts, so y'know, if that's how they enjoy getting their rocks off.

Spot said...

If it works like the original, it needs a time slot all year round. Hence guessing it'll be a one-hour (and why it makes sense that FOX, who've made noises about year-round programming, went in for this).

But as you say, FOX loves tearing up their scheduling for reality TV. It's going to be very interesting to find out (and potentially ominous for the bubble shows, they could get rid of the lot of them to create space for Utopia). Could definitely see more shows running into the summer to create gaps for Utopia in the spring - Glee certainly doesn't deserve anything better for its burnoff S6.

Spot said...

Yes, from your comments now I understand original goes all year round. Thank you, honestly.
But it is US market (= big bucks), so no doubt authors would allow tweaks in format. All in all, I think it could be this way (emphasize on "could") :
Summer = 3 to 5 hours, nightly stripped show. Follows original format, nice. Fits into Fox's year-round programming intentions, nice. Doesn't have to be same hours each week, Big Brother isn't too.
Fall = continued in fall with 1 to 3 hours, again doesn't have to be same hours each week, especially if they get TNF. I leave possibility for more than 1 hour per week, because there's big void left by TXF departure.
Midseason/spring = 0 or 1 hours. If it absolutely must go all year round, then 1 hour. But I think December season finale is possible, as nothing goes all year round in US. Don't throw Tosh.0 or Tyler Perry's 10/90 comedies on me now, you know what I mean.

Spot said...

I'll wait until CBS is at full strength before saying anything about Enlisted's growth.

Spot said...

Shows still seem to take a big drop in moves to Friday though (and SPN rallied when moved *from* Friday). There's plenty of shows using Friday very well this season though, and we can now add Bones to that list.

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