Thursday, September 18, 2014

Spotted Ratings, Wednesday 9/17/14


WHAT MATTERS:
  • It was good news/bad news for the first two new drama premieres of the season. Start with the good: The Mysteries of Laura (2.0) actually almost matched the two-hour finale delivery for America's Got Talent (2.3), though Talent was up to 2.7 in the 9:30 half-hour. I wish I had adjusted my morning The Question line after seeing how well Talent did on Tuesday, but this seems like a pretty solid showing even given that context. Most of these post-Got Talent previews have dropped 25%+ the next week, but Laura has given itself a chance to withstand that and still be in the mix.
  • Meanwhile, Fox's Red Band Society (1.3) attracted very little interest, down a tenth from its Hell's Kitchen lead-in (1.4). We still don't know quite how much more carnage is to come on Fox's schedule, especially from Tuesday thru Friday, but this is not good as much more competition will come next week.
  • Without an irregularity in the 9/8c hour, Extant (1.1) rallied for its likely series finale. This was its biggest rating since July, though almost all of the ratings since July were 1.0.

FULL TABLE:

InfoShowTimeslotTrue
A18-49 Skew Last LeLa Rank y2yTLa Ty2y
The Middle (R) 1.1 34% +10% +10% 1.5
The Goldbergs (R) 1.1 39% +10% +10% 1.4
Modern Family (R) 1.3 43% +18% +8% 1.6
Modern Family (R) 1.5 45% +25% +0% 1.8
Nashville (R) 0.7 38% -26% +8% 0.8
ABC:+3%+7%
Big Brother Thu 2.2 42% -8%-0.2n/a 5/13 n/a -4% -17% 2.8
Criminal Minds (R) 1.0 27% +82% -63% 1.2
Extant 1.1 26% +38%+0.3+0.5 3/11 n/a +83% -53% 1.3
CBS:+25%-44%
America's Got Talent Wed 2.4 25% +33%+0.6n/a 1/9 -4% +66% +37% 2.9
The Mysteries of Laura 2.0 25% n/an/an/a 1/1 n/a +5% -26% 2.0
NBC:+42%+10%
Hell's Kitchen Regular 1.4 45% -7%-0.1n/a 3/3 n/a -7% -35% 1.8
Red Band Society 1.3 40% n/an/an/a 1/1 n/a -7% -43% 1.5
Fox:-7%-39%
Penn and Teller: Fool Us 0.5 40% +0%+0.0n/a 2/8 n/a -9% +67% 0.7
The 100 (R) 0.2 41% +0% -56% 0.2
CW:-7%-7%
Big5:+19%-21%

KEY (click to expand)
A18-49 - Adults 18-49 rating. Percentage of US TV-owning adults 18-49 watching the program.
Skew - Percentage of adults 18-49 within the show's total viewership.
Last - A18-49 difference (percent and numerical) from the show's previous episode.
LeLa - A18-49 difference between the show's lead-in and its lead-in for the previous episode.
Rank - The A18-49 rating's rank among the show's episodes so far this season.
y2y - Percent difference between A18-49 and the show's rating a year ago.
TLa - Percent difference between A18-49 and the network's rating in the timeslot one week ago.
Ty2y - Percent difference between A18-49 and the network's rating in the timeslot one year ago.
True - A metric that adjusts the A18-49 rating for overall viewing levels, competition and lead-in. PRELIMINARY CALCULATION. For finals, see SpotVault.

(R) - Repeat.

Much more detail on these numbers at the New Daily Spotted Ratings page.

More Spotted Ratings in the Index.

17 comments:

Spot said...

I'm surprised how old Red Band Society skewed given the material.

Spot said...

That's a pretty good number for Laura, I don't think anyone expected it to do any better than that. It's obviously in for a rougher time next week (no AGT + Survivor/The Middle/Goldbergs premieres), but I feel better about it than I did before tonight. But it could just do an Intelligence, so who knows?

Spot said...

Phew. I'm finally off the mark for the year, even if nearly everyone else got it right as well.

Very impressive from The Mysteries of Laura, and has any fall schedule fallen apart as quickly as Foxs this year, fall season technically hasn't even started and the prospects look scary already. I thought RBS had decent buzz, but I guess that alone isn't enough for Fox to launch a show anymore.

Spot said...

Laura did much better than I thought. I still don't think it tells us anything about its prospects in its actual timeslot but it's never a bad thing to start off this strong.

On the other side of the spectrum.. Damn for Red Band, I was rooting for it. But you are quite right, we don't know what this means for the show in terms of survival chances moving forward since everything else on FOX is equally dead. Even Hell's Kitchen did poorly.

Spot said...

Clearly it is now much, much easier for NBC to launch a drama than FOX. Imagine saying that five years ago!

Spot said...

I'm thinking its median age is probably younger than average. I think it skewed more towards 12-17 range than the 50+ range

Spot said...

Don't forget the "special preview" situations of last year. Almost Human went 3.1 -> 2.3, Intelligence went 2.4 -> 1.2 and Believe went 2.7 -> 1.5. And then Utopia managed to drop more than Intelligence 2.0 -> .9. Laura isn't quite safe

Spot said...

We have one mystery solved in terms of Laura. Now the next one: how to keep people from abandoning ship next week.

I kinda reckoned that advertising it as the warmed-over syrup of broadcast TV shows would turn Red Band Society into Dead Band Society. Also, beware making shows using words that rhyme w/ Dead, especially Red - plenty of people will in fact go there.

Spot said...

Apparently it got a 1.8 in Females 12-17. I have no idea if that's impressive or not, though.

Spot said...

Red Band Society: I thought my prediction (cancellation after 1.10 A18-49 through 13 episodes) is maybe too pessimistic. After 1.3 premiere, 1.10 looks unreachable, and actually 0.90 average looks more likely than 1.00 does. I don't know W18-34 rating, but it's probably as bad as A18-49 - preliminary A18-34 is 1.1, so W18-34 shouldn't be much above that 1.3, if at all. However, if show manages to stay above 0.8 through first 5 episodes (before baseball caused hiatus), and it just might, I'd expect Fox to air all 13 episodes on Wednesday. Because Utopia is doing even worse, and because of their thin bench, I can see them put up with "Society" until Idol/Empire take over Wednesday in midseason. As opposed to put there something that will be interrupted by holidays season, plus later moved it to make room for idol.

Laura: Started at 10:01 PM, so it probably will be adjusted down to 2.0. Half-hours weren't awful (2.3/1.9 out of 2.7), so it's hard to imagine Intelligence-like 50% drop in week 2. But this is basically the same situation, so it's delusional to expect anything but 25%+ drop into 1.3 to 1.5 range. I expect around 1.4 for 2nd episode, and around 1.2 for 3rd episode, and that means clear "cancel". If it stabilizes in 1.2-1.3 range, then it might air all 13 on Wednesday. But if it is 1.0-1.1, no - NBC has long bench, I can see them pulling the plug in favor of... I'd like to them to try Parks & Recreation / Unbreakable Kimmy Schmidt at Wed 8 PM, but perhaps some of their dramas with no defined timeslot (The Odyssey; The Slap; Aquarius) ?

Spot said...

Well, if if just bombs, NBC has dozens of Datelines lined up at any given time, so I see that being the short term answer. I think Red Band Society can be removed for a two hour Hell's Kitchen

Spot said...

Yes, but do they have enough episodes of Hell's Kitchen in the can? And, are they willing to air 3 hours of Ramsey per week? They were reluctant to do it in the past. I have no idea, on both accounts. But your word is good enough for me.
Other thing is I'm kinda getting of myself here. As Red Band Society might stabilize at 0.9-1.0, and then all of my talk would be pointless - it would remain in its timeslot. I think it's yanked only if it falls to 0.8 or lower. Line might be 0.7 or 0.9, and I think it's 0.8 simply because Rake was moved to Friday only after it hit 0.8 twice. In any case, how the mighty have fallen.

Spot said...

Advantage is it's staying on the same night, albeit at an earlier time. This makes it a wildcard compared to other 'special preview' shows.

Spot said...

I foresee big drops for Dead Band. It'll be dead even by Fox standards.

Spot said...

A 1.3 for RBS? That sucks, man. I saw the pilot and I thought that it had plenty of potential. What do you think went wrong?


On another note, good job to MoL for exceeding many expectations. While that 2.1 will definitely not be very sustainable, it's certainly more so than Red Band's 1.3.


What a shame for Red Band Society. It's gonna have to get a 1.4 or stay even for Fox to keep it.

Spot said...

I guess that's a good point. But hey, since FOX is in dire straits, Red Band may have a chance of succeeding.
After all, relative ratings matter more than absolute ratings

Spot said...

Imagine how far the TNF ratings would have eroded at 9/8c if that was one week later. Wasn't it already 21-0 then?

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