Tuesday, September 16, 2014

The Question, Tuesday 9/16/14: Will a New Season Mark a New Direction for New Girl & Mindy?


If yesterday's Dancing with the Stars Question was interesting because of how well the show did last year, today's beginning of the 2014-15 scripted programming season is interesting for exactly the opposite reason. New Girl's 2013-14 season saw one of the biggest in-season collapses for a veteran series in recent memory. It started with a 2.9 premiere against no real competition 52 weeks ago, settled at high-1's in the fall, mid-1's in January and low-1's (including a 1.1 and a mere 1.2 finale) in the spring. It's back alongside longtime lead-out The Mindy Project, whose finale actually did surprisingly OK, and they'll look to get another big head start on the competition. One problem for these shows may be the bomb-in-the-making lead-in from Utopia. Will a new season mark a new direction for New Girl and Mindy? That's The Question for Tuesday, September 16, 2014.

Premieres/Averages/Finales
2.9/1.67/1.2 (New Girl)
1.9/1.28/1.3 (The Mindy Project

Last season, Fox rang up big numbers on pre-premiere Tuesday, which included the premieres of Dads (2.2) and Brooklyn Nine-Nine (2.6) in the 8:00 hour. New Girl's 2.9 was a whooping eight tenths ahead of any result the rest of the season (aside from the post-Super Bowl airing), while Mindy's 1.9 was 0.4 above the next highest ep. It will be very tough to repeat those bounces with Utopia airing at 8/7c; it'll do only about a third of last year's comedy hour rating. However, the utter lack of competition should still get these shows past last year's 1.2/1.3 finales (and probably, again, above any ratings the rest of the season).

New Girl PLUS The Mindy Project Over/Under: 2.85.

No entries accepted after 6:00am ET the morning after the date in the headline. If editing your pick, please leave a separate comment.

34 comments:

Spot said...

FOX. Under. Enough said.

Spot said...

Over.
3.1 : New Girl 1.7, Mindy 1.4. I calculated those numbers some time ago, but buy now I've forgotten which kooky method I used. Maybe that's for the best.

Spot said...

I love Mindy, hoping for the best, but it feels hard to be optimistic on this one. Under

Spot said...

Under.

Although its competition is less potent than in the regular TV season, this Fox hour is up against the AGT performance finale on NBC which will be no slouch.

Last Tuesday, "Hotel Hell" delivered a 0.9 after "Utopia." In the case of today's game, that would translate into a 1.8. The comedies should be more appealing offerings than that Ramsay show, but I predict they won't draw that much higher.

BTW, "Utopia" is an already-made ratings bomb. Fox cannot keep that junk on Tuesdays much longer.

Spot said...

Over

Spot said...

Over

Spot said...

Optimism strikes again. OVER.
Kinda funny how last year New Girl got a 2.9 and now it AND Mindy are the line

Spot said...

Under.

This would be easier if you were asking us to predict the full season!

Spot said...

Under

Spot said...

I expect Utopia to drop and don't expect New Girl to double that or The Mindy Project to hold all of New Girl. There is a borderline case that would give a 2.9, but I'll go with Under

Spot said...

New Girl 1.5
Mindy 1.3
Close, but UNDER at a 2.8

Spot said...

Under

Spot said...

UNDER.


1.4 for New Girl
1.2 for The Mindy Project

Spot said...

Under. I consider Fox Tuesdays a dumpster fire until further notice.

Spot said...

Under

Spot said...

Over.
New Girl: 1.8
Mindy Project: 1.4

Spot said...

Under

Spot said...

Over
While Utopia's not the best lead-in for it, the show's pretty established so I think it could do OK. I'll give it a 2.1.
Mindy...I'm not too sure. I'll give it a 1.6
I think a 2.85 is kinda low, but anything can happen

Spot said...

Over (but barely)
New Girl 1.5
Mindy Project 1.4

...and then both regularly in the sub 1's after tonight.

Spot said...

Over. They had a good start last season, and even though the 8:00 hour was way stronger, I don't think something like a 1.6/1.4 is inconceivable.

Spot said...

Optimism didn't pay last night. This has as many red (and black[*]) flags as Michael Waltrip on Dancing W/ The Stars. Under.

[*For those who don't know, in racing, the black flag is the penalty flag. A driver has two options when this is displayed for them - pull into the pits to serve a pass through or stop-and-go penalty, depending on the severity of the infraction, or stop being scored w/in three laps (this is signaled by another black flag, w/ a white X mark across it, commonly referred to as "the black flag with the white cross").]

Spot said...

Over slightly at 1.6/1.3. Surely that's not too much to hope for?!

Spot said...

Over. A little more confident in this one than I was for DWTS. Utopia will be an absolute horror of a lead-in, but I definitely wouldn't label these two shows as "lead-in dependent." New Girl almost always built on Glee and Mindy has quite the momentum in terms of retention. Additionally, Fox typically does noticeably well pre-premiere week. I think this hour might remain somewhat of a bright spot in the fast crumbling Fox, but maybe I'm wrong and Fox is in for even bigger colapse than expected.

Spot said...

Um...over with 2.9. Just b/c zero competition.

Spot said...

Under

Spot said...

Over

Spot said...

Under. Utopia's just going to be such a bad lead-in, and I don't know if NG can self-start anymore.

Spot said...

I'm probably going to get burned again but it just seems too big an annual collapse for me so OVER

Spot said...

Oof, another good line... Under.

Spot said...

Over, out of sheer optimism.

Spot said...

I really don't know about this one. I'm gonna go with Over.

Spot said...

Over.

Spot said...

Over at 2.9 (ironically, New Girl premiered to that rating last season).

Spot said...

Under

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