Wednesday, September 24, 2014

The Question, Wednesday 9/24/14: Will Black-ish be a Post-Modern Family Hit-ish?


After a couple lower-priority lineups on Premiere Monday and Tuesday, ABC begins the high-stakes portion of its fall roll-out tonight. After the sixth season premiere of Modern Family, there's Black-ish, the first brand new fall family comedy that will be regularly scheduled as a Modern lead-out. We don't really know yet whether Black-ish will be as good as previous efforts like Happy Endings, but it may be one of the best prospects commercially if only for "fit" reasons. Will Black-ish be a post-Modern Family hit-ish? That's The Question for Wednesday, September 24, 2014.


Post-Modern Family Launches
4.4 (Cougar Town, 9/23/09, 4.2 Modern)
3.7 (Mr. Sunshine, 2/9/11, 5.1 Modern)
2.8 (Happy Endings, 4/13/11, 3.9 Modern)
2.9 (Apartment 23, 4/11/12, 4.2 Modern)
3.2 (The Neighbors, 9/26/12, 5.5 Modern)
2.8 (Suburgatory s2, 10/17/12, 4.7 Modern)
2.9 (How to Live, 4/3/13, 4.2 Modern)
3.2 (Super Fun Night, 10/2/13, 4.2 Modern)
1.7 (Mixology, 2/26/14, 3.1 Modern)

While I see Black-ish as a stronger fit than other Modern Family lead-outs, I think that will be a greater factor with the long-term ratings than it will tonight. Still, the promos may appeal to the Modern Family crowd and the reviews are relatively positive, so I see a pretty good rating here. It will also be interesting to see how the first 90 minutes of the lineup fare, coming off a summer of strong repeat ratings and with The Goldbergs installed at 8:30.

Over/Under: 2.85.

No entries accepted after 6:00am ET the morning after the date in the headline. If editing your pick, please leave a separate comment.

51 comments:

Spot said...

Over

Spot said...

Over with a 3.0.

Spot said...

Modern Family 3.8
black-ish 2.7

Under

Spot said...

Over.
I expect high 2s, so I'd set exactly the same line. Meaning, I'd take under at 2.95 for sure, and over at 2.75 for sure. Both with low confidence, so my today's over is zero confidence one, I picked over just to be optimistic for once.

Spot said...

Under. Modern Family will have a Sixth Season Slump.

Spot said...

Over. I predict 2.9 or 3.0

Spot said...

Over.

Wouldn't shock me if I'm wrong - Spot has a great knack for making these challenging!

Spot said...

Slightly over, I think it'll do about a 2.9, mostly because I think Modern Family will be a little weaker than last year.

Spot said...

Every comedy ABC has tried in the fall was at least initially sampled, but then again, Modern Family is down from its peak a few years ago.


I'm going with OVER, just because the two seem to gel so well together.

Spot said...

Under tonight, but holding up better in weeks to come.

Spot said...

under

Spot said...

I'll only regret it if I don't - UNDER.

Spot said...

I'm going to go OVER and then I'm going to immediately regret it.

Spot said...

Going under at a 2.8 mainly because I expect MF to be down a lot.

Spot said...

Over. This is actually getting some critical love. Which is somewhat surprising. I think it should be able to hit a

Spot said...

I agree. Survivor won't have a ton of reality competition. Hell's Kitchen won't be even close to an already way down X-Factor last year.

Spot said...

Did that yesterday #wontgetfooledagain

Spot said...

I am *really* keen to see what the reaction is from the black feminists I follow on Twitter. If they turn hard enough against it, that might even move the needle for tomorrow's Question...

Spot said...

UNDER

Spot said...

Modern Family usually premieres well to begin the season. I'm glad black-ish -- my top new comedy pick this fall -- will get much exposure.

Over.

Spot said...

Why would it be surprising?

Spot said...

Love that Survivor is back. BB16 has been so anticlimactic since Christine put up Nicole.

Spot said...

Over

Spot said...

OVER slightly

Spot said...

Over

Spot said...

I'm stuck on the fact that a family show is finally debuting behind the family shows. Everything feels very cohesive. That plus Middle's steadiness, Goldbergs' surprising strength in reruns leads me to believe that the entire block could surprise. Over at 3.5.

Spot said...

Over. I think that Blackish is going to do a decent retention out of Modern Family's premiere. My prediction is a 2.9 out of 4.0 from Modern Family and as for The Middle/The Goldbergs pairing, I'm expecting a 2.6 from The Middle and a 2.3 from The Goldbergs.

Spot said...

I think because many shows that get a big sitcom lead in kinda suck (The Millers, Super Fun Night, Mr Sunshine, Mixology, Mom, Crazy Ones, Rob, We Are Men, Black-ish).

Spot said...

Because the show is named Blackish. By the name it could easily become "edgy" racial humor instead of actual comedy. It appears that they avoided that path.

Spot said...

Over

Spot said...

Under

Spot said...

Over.

Spot said...

Over

Spot said...

Over. No premiere aside from Mixology has weent below 2.8, and I doubt this show would.

Spot said...

under. I feel like Modern Family is going to be down a lot this season so I can see Black.ish at about 2.5

Spot said...

Under. I don't have Modern Family coming back as strong as most of you.

Spot said...

Under.

Spot said...

Under - 2.7

Spot said...

over

Spot said...

Just under at about 2.6 or 2.7.

Spot said...

I just hope it's not 2.7 or 2.8 in preliminaries. Because all 5 this week's ABC telecasts were adjusted up for a tenth or two. Plus, during last spring ABC Wednesday comedies adjusted up very often. I demand either 2.6-, either 2.9+ in preliminaries, Nielsen.

Other than that, I'm not holding my breath about tomorrow's ratings.
CBS airs unscripted, CW repeats or something , and Fox whatever low rated.
Tonight's 4 ABC comedies should be their 4 top rated comedies, and they always renew 4+ comedies, so...
Nashville and Laura are dead shows walking. Laura should do half-Intelligence to 1.3-1.4. Not full-Intelligence only because there's no drama competition in the hour.
SVU and Chicago PD depend more on how NBC rookies will fare this season, than they do on own ratings. Though, CPD could get inflated 2.0 or so, with cliffhanger and no drama competition (Nashville is a drama, but hardly is competition).

Spot said...

Over. Personally, I'm more interested to see how The Goldberg's is going to do

Spot said...

Under.

Spot said...

Under. ABC's marketing department has torched the show w/ awful ads.

Spot said...

Under.

Spot said...

Under

Spot said...

I've had a few drinks and I made money at a poker game, so optimism reigns supreme.

Over.

Spot said...

I can see this being a good retainer of a disappointing Modern Family too.

Spot said...

Over

Spot said...

If Forever shows the same promise in the next 3 weeks or so, ABC should nurture it. They need another Castle type of player that they can air for the entire year and that they can repeat in the summer if needed be, not to mention syndication revenues.

Spot said...

While Sleepy Hollow wasn't overwhelmingly hyped out of the gate, the rest of the RG3 trajectory actually fits - big initial impact, limped into a long absence and wasn't the same coming out of it.

This 2014 newbie class does look as hyped as the 2012 draft class, actually - Gotham, Scorpion, NCIS NO, Murder makes for a "big four" the likes of which I can't remember seeing before. Comedy newbies are going the way of rookie RBs though, suddenly nobody's first priority.

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