Monday, September 15, 2014

The Question, Monday 9/15/14: Will Dancing with the Stars Have Another Starring Season?


To be honest, when I first announced the return of The Question on September 15, I mistakenly thought the new drama Forever was previewing on this night. Instead, we must begin with an unscripted premiere. But the return of Dancing with the Stars is more interesting than most because the show trended so well in its 2013-14 seasons. It was only barely down year-to-year in the fall, then surprisingly up in the spring. The fall season once again gets a head start on its main competitor The Voice, which may help it gain even more momentum in a duel that seemed to be moving in DWTS' direction. Will Dancing with the Stars have another starring season? That's The Question for Monday, September 15, 2014.

Dancing with the Stars Recent Premieres
2.5 (9/24/12, vs. The Voice) (2.26 season avg)
3.2 (3/18/13, NOT vs. The Voice) (2.29 season avg)
3.1 (9/16/13, NOT vs. The Voice) (2.16 season avg)
2.6 (3/17/14, vs. The Voice) (2.33 season avg)

This is another premiere in the "NOT vs. The Voice" category. The effect of facing The Voice is clear; though the last four seasons all had similar raw averages, the premieres that avoided The Voice were considerably higher. With The Voice teetering a bit, DWTS may take a smaller drop this year against full competition, but repeating the 3.2/3.1 tonight feels like a big ask. It won't have any competition as big as last year's Sleepy Hollow premiere, but finales for American Ninja Warrior and MasterChef may steal some unscripted eyeballs. I think the premiere is down a bit, but the fall eps hold up better.

Over/Under: 2.85.

No entries accepted after 6:00am ET the morning after the date in the headline. If editing your pick, please leave a separate comment.

31 comments:

Spot said...

American Ninja Warrior & MasterChef combined don't pull the mid-4s (or higher) that The Voice tends to pull for a season debut. And based on how well last season ended for Dancing with the Stars I'm letting my unabashed optimism flag fly to start the new season of The Question.

Over.

Spot said...

Over

Spot said...

The cast is probably one of the worst yet, but interest always seems a bit higher for the premiere. Hmmm.


I'm going to say UNDER, but just barely (2.6-2.7).

Spot said...

Over with a very very solid 3.2

Spot said...

Over by just a tiny bit. 2.9

Spot said...

Under (2.8)

Spot said...

Under

Spot said...

Under

Spot said...

Under with a 2.7

There's less competition, but the cast is just not good enough.

Spot said...

An excellent line to start the season. I'm high on ABC in general this year - I even think they have an outside shot of winning the season in Spot's entertainment-only headline number! - so I may as well back that with a tentative OVER. Can't see this not being high 2s.

Spot said...

Over

Spot said...

A very uncertain UNDER

Spot said...

The only name I immediately recognise from the cast is the girl from PLL.

Not basing my guess on the cast list (maybe it's more local to the US) and just a gut feeling saying UNDER.

Spot said...

Over.

Spot said...

Under.

Tricky line. 2.9 would put it at 171 A18-49+ , which would be the highest premiere number since Spring 2011. Then 2.8 or 2.7 would be very likely if not for... not only there's no The Voice today, there's no big Sleepy Hollow premiere this year, and CBS is in repeats, so 3.0 is a possibility.
Any number between 2.7 and 3.0 wouldn't surprise me. It just seems safer to take under in this world of ever dropping ratings.

Spot said...

Slightly over

Spot said...

Over.

Spot said...

Under at a 2.6

Spot said...

Under at 2.7ish. Still a quality number for such an old show.

Spot said...

Under.



If pushed for a number, I'd say 2.8

Spot said...

Under slightly at 2.8.

Spot said...

Slightly over since there's nothing else.

Spot said...

There is one fundamental thing that will sink this Dancing premiere - Michael Waltrip. He is a renowned cheater in NASCAR, which I believe may have a more significant overlap w/ Dancing than some may think. NASCAR fans will be repulsed that this symbol of the sport at its worst has been elevated in such a manner, and will therefore tune out in droves rather than endure his numerous transparent efforts to manipulate the competition. (whatever competition there may be)



Joke.


I don't think Waltrip has any more or less power to affect the opening than anyone else in this line-up. And I think there is something to the "no Voice" thing. Over.

Spot said...

Over

Spot said...

I'll say Under. But it'll be close.

Spot said...

Under.

Spot said...

Under

Spot said...

I'll say Over. It should get very close to a 3.0

Spot said...

After literally three hours of consideration, Over

Spot said...

I would be surprised if it wasn't in that range. I've gone Over just because I'm optimistic on ABC generally this season, but my main conclusion is that it'll be close. Watch as it goes 2.4 now.

Spot said...

(PREMIERE) DWTS Dancing With the Stars S19X1 "Week 1" >>> http://x.co/5SOEp

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