|Premieres September 26|
Best Case: If it's another explosive growth season for Shark Tank, 20/20 might just have another minor growth season. +5% to 1.53.
Worst Case: 20/20's growth has been all about Shark Tank; if that show finally slows down, 20/20 will follow suit. It's down 25% to 1.10, putting it about in line with its average Plus over the last 11 years.
Likeliest: In case you haven't picked up on it, my only real take here is that it is heavily dependent on its Shark Tank lead-in. Since I think Shark Tank's growth will slow down this season, 20/20 will probably drop a little more than Tank. -8% to 1.34.
|Premieres September 26|
|Timeslot Occupants||Blue Bloods|
Best Case: Like Hawaii Five-0, Blue Bloods is getting syndication play this fall. Like Hawaii Five-0, it might benefit if The Amazing Race does big business on Friday, though it won't be quite as direct. Up a couple hundredths to 1.42.
Worst Case: Blue Bloods had a big year while NBC ran cheap, sub-bubble-rated dramas in the 10/9c hour. A massive upgrade in NBC spending leads to a massive upgrade in NBC ratings, and Blue Bloods takes a big dip against the added competition. Down 21% to a 1.10, putting it just below the season three Plus.
Likeliest: As with 20/20, this show's recent resurgence seems to have been largely lead-in driven. So Blue Bloods should also trend about like its lead-in does. I've got Hawaii Five-0 at -8%, and I'll make Blue Bloods' trend a tiny bit worse because of Constantine. But the audiences shouldn't cross over too much, so it's only a tiny bit. Down 9% to 1.27.
|Premieres October 24|
Best Case: DC Comics is building a TV empire, and huge returns from Gotham and The Flash will rub off on the lower-profile John Constantine the way the Marvel brand did in Guardians of the Galaxy. It builds significantly on its Grimm lead-in and is only a bit behind Shark Tank for biggest Friday series. 1.70.
Worst Case: The film version of Constantine didn't really do anything special at the box office. The lesson of Dracula and Hannibal is that NBC's success on a low-viewed night with Grimm was truly unique, and Constantine will get off to a slower start than a bigger name like Dracula did. It ends up settling at just over a league average drop below Dracula, which means Hannibal probably fills in for the second half of the season again. 0.88.
Likeliest: It's a big spend by NBC, and I think they'll get the big ratings upgrade, if only because Dracula was so bad and Hannibal is... not for everyone. I'll give it the same season average as Grimm at 1.25, though it might settle a bit behind after its post-premiere drop. Not exactly a Friday game-changer, but is it good enough for NBC?
The Network to Watch: NBC by a long shot.
The Picks: Blue Bloods is still my token CBS procedural, though I usually fall behind and catch up in the summer. Maybe Constantine.