Friday, September 19, 2014

Fall 2014 Best Case/Worst Case, Friday 10/9c

Best Case/Worst Case moves to the Friday 10/9c hour. NBC populated the hour with low-cost Grimm companion dramas in 2013-14, but they're aiming higher this fall with the more normal-budgeted comic book drama Constantine.

Premieres September 26
y2y Label True Sitch 2013-14 Slot
1.46 +1% hit(Fri) 1.72 -15% Friday 10:00

Timeslot Occupants20/20
Avg Orig Avg
1.47 1.46 1.46 1.72

Best Case: If it's another explosive growth season for Shark Tank, 20/20 might just have another minor growth season. +5% to 1.53.

Worst Case: 20/20's growth has been all about Shark Tank; if that show finally slows down, 20/20 will follow suit. It's down 25% to 1.10, putting it about in line with its average Plus over the last 11 years.

Likeliest: In case you haven't picked up on it, my only real take here is that it is heavily dependent on its Shark Tank lead-in. Since I think Shark Tank's growth will slow down this season, 20/20 will probably drop a little more than Tank. -8% to 1.34.

Blue Bloods
Premieres September 26
y2y Label True Sitch 2013-14 Slot
1.40 +0% solid(Fri) 1.69 -17% Friday 10:00

Timeslot OccupantsBlue Bloods
Avg Orig Avg
1.35 1.40 1.40 1.69

Best Case: Like Hawaii Five-0, Blue Bloods is getting syndication play this fall. Like Hawaii Five-0, it might benefit if The Amazing Race does big business on Friday, though it won't be quite as direct. Up a couple hundredths to 1.42.

Worst Case: Blue Bloods had a big year while NBC ran cheap, sub-bubble-rated dramas in the 10/9c hour. A massive upgrade in NBC spending leads to a massive upgrade in NBC ratings, and Blue Bloods takes a big dip against the added competition. Down 21% to a 1.10, putting it just below the season three Plus.

Likeliest: As with 20/20, this show's recent resurgence seems to have been largely lead-in driven. So Blue Bloods should also trend about like its lead-in does. I've got Hawaii Five-0 at -8%, and I'll make Blue Bloods' trend a tiny bit worse because of Constantine. But the audiences shouldn't cross over too much, so it's only a tiny bit. Down 9% to 1.27.

Constantine (NEW!)
Premieres October 24

Timeslot OccupantsDracula Hannibal
Avg Orig Avg
1.41 1.02 1.04 1.23 0.87 1.23

Best Case: DC Comics is building a TV empire, and huge returns from Gotham and The Flash will rub off on the lower-profile John Constantine the way the Marvel brand did in Guardians of the Galaxy. It builds significantly on its Grimm lead-in and is only a bit behind Shark Tank for biggest Friday series. 1.70.

Worst Case: The film version of Constantine didn't really do anything special at the box office. The lesson of Dracula and Hannibal is that NBC's success on a low-viewed night with Grimm was truly unique, and Constantine will get off to a slower start than a bigger name like Dracula did. It ends up settling at just over a league average drop below Dracula, which means Hannibal probably fills in for the second half of the season again. 0.88.

Likeliest: It's a big spend by NBC, and I think they'll get the big ratings upgrade, if only because Dracula was so bad and Hannibal is... not for everyone. I'll give it the same season average as Grimm at 1.25, though it might settle a bit behind after its post-premiere drop. Not exactly a Friday game-changer, but is it good enough for NBC?

The Basics:

bc Rank y2y Rank TPUT Rank bc/TPUT Rank
Friday 10:00 6.5 16 +7% 1 27.8 19 23% 16

The Network to Watch: NBC by a long shot.

The Picks: Blue Bloods is still my token CBS procedural, though I usually fall behind and catch up in the summer. Maybe Constantine.


Spot said...

Blue Bloods : Around 1.30 It retained about 100% of Hawaii Five-0 lead-in. No reason for it to suddenly change.

Constantine : Around 1.50. Besides oddly picked The Mysteries of Laura, this is only new fall drama on NBC. It's promoted, it has compatible lead-in... but there's only so much available A18-49ers on Friday nights.

Spot said...

20/20 is heavily story dependent. On April 18th it slightly outrated Shark Tank and has been up when ST was in repeats. I think the mid term elections should give some nice results in late October/Early November.
Blue Bloods was even last year. I don't see a massive drop. WGN was pushing its marathon hard. I think it'll hold up well.
Constantine analysis to come later

Spot said...

All eyes are on Constantine here at least to start. It at least gets the benefit of debuting late & only sharing promo time with State of Affairs. Plus Grimm gets some extra potency around Halloween. Comic book shows have done well on the night (see: Smallville), but this show needs to be done well; with the increased representation of comic book shows, fans aren't compelled to watch one that's poorly made because it's the only genre show in town.

Whatever Constantine does, I don't think it should impact Blue Bloods that much. If anything, I think Blue Bloods real competition is 20/20; both shows were helped by stronger 9:00 pm lead-ins. If that's the case I have to throw my lot in with 20/20 just because Shark Tank feels more likely to hold up y2y than Hawaii Five-O. And as it's been mentioned, 20/20 could get a slight bump due to midterm election coverage.

I was all set to ask the real question if anyone thinks Blue Bloods may be canceled this season. It's already got the syndication deal and hits 100 episodes this year, and CBS is going to need room to launch new dramas for 2015-2016. Plus Elementary is still going to need another season somewhere on the schedule after this one to fulfill the syndication package. But there are older and/or non-CBS Studios produced dramas that could take the brunt: if Madam Secretary bombs out and CSI/CSI: Cyber can't withstand the occasional push into the 11:00 hour, 2015-2016 Sundays could be 60 Minutes / Elementary / The Good Wife (because CBS) / Person of Interest, which leaves Blue Bloods alone while freeing up Tuesdays & Thursdays.

So now someone tell me that I'm horribly wrong in my rapidly-formed idea. :-)

Spot said...

I can see Constantine doing well and NBC will have the difficult, if high-class problem, of whether to move it. It's not remotely compatible with anything else on their schedule other than Grimm and I would be relunctant to move it to 8. Perhaps the best they can do is swap its timeslot with Grimm.

Spot said...

But here you're assuming they'll both renew 3 rookie dramas (possible, this is strong class, thus I expect at least 2 renewals), and have 2 new fall drama premieres in 2015-16. But, they might premiere only 1 drama that fall - if they don't like they pilots, or simply because being happy with 3 drama renewals, which would be more than in previous 3 cycles combined (only 2, PoI and Elementary).

That is not to say Blue Bloods is safe. If they give Sun 8 PM back to reality shows, then one of Blue Bloods, CSI and The Good Wife must go. Here I assume The Mentalist is goner, while all 5 weekday veteran dramas + Hawaii Five-0 are renewed. Same (one of those 3 veterans cancelled) happens if they stick with 13 drama hours in 2015-16, but there would be 4 sophomores + 1 rookie (or 3+2 as in your scenario). Even two would be cancelled with both 5 sophomores & rookies, plus cutting down dramas to 12 hours... but it won't happen - no one sane won't cut down drama hours if 3+ newbies would be renewed.

But all 3 mentioned veteran shows are safe if they go with 13 drama hours, and 2+2 (or 3+1) sophomores + rookies. And there one more variant for all to be renewed: Blue Bloods, CSI renewed for fall, with short final season of The Good Wife pushed to midseason. In that case, all three are safe with 5 sophomores & rookies. Or with 12 drama hours, but not with both.

Spot said...

I've already posted this in the Friday 9 pm article , Hawaii 50 has already started syndication in Summer 2013 , so it has been airing on TNT for over one year now , getting weak numbers, and that of course meant no bump in network.
BBloods , yes, it started syndication only few weeks ago , so time will tell if it helps the numbers on Friday,
I think and I hope Constantine to do well , I really enjoy the promo.

Spot said...

I'm not 100% sure that Person of Interest will be back next year. It dropped a whopping 32% y2y in its move to Tuesday. The show is no longer a procedural, and with an unknown being its lead in this year, we have no confirmation it won't drop a nice big again next year. It is no CBS owned. We aren't sure that Warner Brothers will be able to lower its fee enough for syndication.
I believe that The Good Wife, CSI, NCIS, NCIS: LA, NCIS: NO, Elementary, and Hawaii 5-0 are CBS owned. With Criminal Minds being half own (other half ABC). So I just do not understand why the Good Wife is so damn important to CBS! CSI not only does well in domestic syndication, but is popular worldwide. Anyways, I think that only NCIS, NCIS: LA, Elementary, and Hawaii 5-0 are safe for another season after this year. We have no proof LA won't just collapse on Monday and be pushed to Sunday or Friday. Or Elementary drop another 23% y2y and be only useful as a Sunday/Friday show. I think that either The Good Wife, Blue Bloods, or CSI will be done next year. Because CBS will either move NCIS: LA, Elementary, or Person of Interest will move to Sunday/Friday. I could see all three going if LA, Elementary, and POI all need to move to a Sunday/Friday slot. But if all 3 hold well I could see CBS keeping The Good Wife, Blue Bloods, and CSI.
Sorry for the novel

Spot said...

Blue Bloods: 1.30 - boring show ratings-wise.

Constantine - 1.13 - unless NBC proves me wrong, they'll struggle to find their own audience on such a hard timeslot with no people available like fridays at 10.

Spot said...

The Good Wife is CBS poster child, don't be surprised if it gets a 7th season to concludes its story. Not to mention it won one of the top Emmy prizes for drama (best actress for Margulies), right now, it's the only with appeal among critics on CBS (and one of the few on network TV).

Call me crazy but the number of words per episode on each season tells the plans to the show, it has been 1-2-3-4-3-2 (for the upcoming season), so, it is going to run for 7 seasons.

It's well known its ratings are awful but it has always been among the network first bunch of renewals.

In my opinion, if CBS returns to cancels 3 fall dramas like they used to do, one or two will be a newbie (most likely Madam Secretary and Scorpion), the others will be one or two veterans, right now, my odds are H-5O > POI > Blue Bloods > TGW > CSI.

TGW could count as a "cancelation" and be benched for 7th season just like Mentalist to free one schedule space, but for me, Five-O isn't safe since it underperforms on syndication, Elementary will probably be a sunday/friday bond, so will POI, CSI might get two more years on sunday, it depends on Cyber too, if it does well, the pull the plug on the mothership.

Safe bets only for all NCIS shows and Criminal Minds, but the conclusion is that all CBS veterans must root for another terrible drama season for them (which I doubt, I bet they'll renew at least two new shows, probably NCIS:NO and Stalker unless the backlash against the later translates into bad ratings).

Spot said...

The AV Club, which I see you on often, seems to love The Good Wife, Person of Interest, Elementary, Parenthood, Hannibal, Scandal, and Sleepy Hollow. I don't think it is anything special critical acclaim wise as some.
I don't think the backlash against Stalker will affect the ratings. It's like Black Jesus, the people having the backlash against the show were not going to watch it in the first place

Spot said...

Is Grimm a viable 8pm show? If so, Grimm/Constantine/Dateline could be the audible.

Spot said...

One more positive and one more negative prediction today:

- Blue Bloods: 1.35. This show was trending so well at the end of the season that I don't see why it shouldn't have another great season now. It will also start syndication and this show, that was never high viewed to begin with but that seems to have a very dedicated audience, is one of those that seems to be very well positioned to take advantage of that. I think TAR keeps the demo interest alive in CBS Fridays and that Blue Bloods continues to perform well at 10pm with its loyal audience.

- Constantine: 1.11. You could be right about this one and I certainly feel like it has a lot of upside potential, certainly more than Hannibal or Dracula ever had. At the end of the day though, I am not sold on NBC being able to attract an audience for this slot at 10pm and actually keeping it there throghout the season (I think it's a given that it will premiere well). It’s tough to grasp what NBC’s expectations for this one are. I feel like it will be able to perform better than Dracula because that show seemed to be so poorly received last year that it would be tough to make it as wrong twice in a row but I am not sure if “better” will be enough to warrant a renewal. I think it gets a nice retention out of Grimm and
hangs in there for a full season and is a bubble one at the upfronts.

Network to watch: NBC by far

My picks: I will try out Constantine, the trailers look great

Spot said...

I am not nearly as sold on constantine working as you guys are so i dont think it will come down to that but even if it did, i imagine the loss that grimm would inevitably take from moving to an earlier timeslot plus the big loss that dateline would get from facing 20/20 again would be very hard from constantine to make up for in a move to 9pm, especially if it was already doing well enough at 10 to propel the move in the first place.

Spot said...

I think there are way too many variables for us to play that game now, it just seems impossible. We have no clue what happens to their reality hours, to their comedy hours or to their freshman drama hours. Cbs has also shown that they can premiere one new drama in the fall one year and a whooping 4 the year after, so they are quite unpredictable.

My very uneducates guess: madam secretary bombs, the good wife is renewed but held a la the mentalist, ncis new orleans and stalker are renewed. Both two and a half men and the mcharthys end. So they have 3 hours to premiere new stuff just like that. Then it is alsp possible that scorpion bombs or that csi ends, both of which i think are more liklely than messing up with the friday dramas, if they even want to premiere more than 3 hours.

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