Sunday, September 21, 2014

The Question, Sunday 9/21/14: Will Madam Secretary Negotiate a Demo Audience?


Knowing that their new drama Madam Secretary has a rather old-skewing concept, CBS scheduled it on Sunday at 8/7 in an attempt to capture as many eyeballs as possible from the huge late-afternoon NFL lead-ins. Since the network does not have a national late-afternoon game next week, that means Madam Secretary premieres on the eve of the official season, and then will have to cross its fingers for a good hold with much less support and more competition next week. Will Madam Secretary negotiate a demo audience? That's The Question for Sunday, September 21, 2014.


The Amazing Race & The Good Wife
2.0/2.02/2.1 (Amazing Race fall premiere/avg/finale)
2.13/1.86 (TAR fall avgs with/without CBS NFL lead-in)
1.5/1.42/1.2 (The Good Wife premiere/avg/finale)

The NFL will be a factor in this premiere rating, but not as big a factor as with something like the Utopia preview, because there's that 60-minute 60 Minutes buffer in between. Even on series premiere night, I'm not sure this concept is enough of a draw to hit a The Amazing Race-esque demo number, but the NFL should help it at least get toward the high end of what The Good Wife did last season. The Good Wife got one airing last season right after a playoff football-fueled 60 Minutes and averaged a 1.8. 60 Minutes may not be as high as on that night (4.0), but it could be close with a Super Bowl rematch leading in.

Over/Under (only the first telecast after 60 Minutes): 1.85.

No entries accepted after 6:00am ET the morning after the date in the headline. If editing your pick, please leave a separate comment.

38 comments:

Spot said...

Over. Around a 2.0
Big drop next week

Spot said...

CBS should try to keep 60 Minutes to less than a half hour to let this stop at 8:30. Just because its the series premiere

Spot said...

Over. Around a 2.0
Big drop next week

Spot said...

Under.

I think around 2.0, but this is complicated and unique situation, so I might be completely wrong.
Although I'm generally pessimistic about "Madam", tonight it's in a good situation. Unusually big lead-in, OUAT not started yet, and it's a premiere. All in all, I don't doubt this will be by far highest rated episode of the show. Given I expect it to fluctuate between 1.0 (late in 13 episodes run) and 1.5 (earlier in the season, in weeks with big, NFL-fueled lead-in), something like 2.0 seems enough above that range.

Spot said...

Over.
Under in original pick was typo, I expect around 2.0.

Spot said...

Under

There is a strong enough case to argue over or under, but I'm feeling pessimistic on this one.

Spot said...

My firrst prediction was 1.7 but given the hype around Broncos-Seahawks and the lead-in (which helped awfully reviewed Mysteries of Laura to get a 2.0), I'm going with OVER.

Spot said...

Over

Spot said...

Over


Probably one of the hardest ones yet. I think 60 Minutes will probably have one of its biggest nights this entire season. Additionally, I see Madam Secretary having better retention than TAR because it's so much more compatible with the 60 Minutes audience. But I could be wrong and it's just DOA as most of us predicted

Spot said...

The line feels a little too high for me, I was feeling the 1.6-1.8 range before viewing it.

It's in a good situation tonight but I don't want how much I'm rooting for this show to impact my judgement. If it goes over, I can be happy at that little piece of 'success'

Under

Spot said...

I will go with Under at 1.7.

Spot said...

Over (2.2)

Spot said...

Under

Spot said...

Under

Spot said...

Under

Spot said...

Over. It's CBS with a decent lead-in, going against reruns and what looks to be a lousy Pittsburgh-Carolina game.

Spot said...

Over. Never underestimate the power of the football.

Spot said...

OVER

Spot said...

Under. I am not hopeful about this show's chances.

Spot said...

Over.

Spot said...

Over

Spot said...

Over. At least a 2.0

Spot said...

over

Spot said...

Over

Spot said...

Over.


I was thinking 1.8/1.9, so I won't be surprised if it goes Under, anyway. :/

Spot said...

Slightly over with a 2.0.

Spot said...

Under

Spot said...

I'm inclined to think that the people who would be in the market for this show are the ones who pay more attention than usual to critics. Critics haven't exactly been kind. That plus the other circumstances inclines me to go under.

Spot said...

The game was sent to ovetime and CBS broadcast finished around 5 PM here in the west, this means a 9 PM start for MS. The lead-in is there, there is just a 60 minute obstacle.


Wonder if they'll keep the encore broadcast for the eastern/central time zones.

Spot said...

Under.

Spot said...

Over. I think there's more interest for this than there was for Laura, and it should have a better lead in.

Spot said...

Over, but barely at 1.9 and all thanks to 60 mins

Spot said...

Over.

Spot said...

Under

Spot said...

With no "wait for sports" penalty on this indirectly-affected Question, I waited for sports.

60 Minutes hung a 3.8 out of a 44-minute 9.9 Cowboys-Broncos overrun early last season. TAR (against full competition, including a low-end SNF like tonight) carried that to a 2.4.

I'm seeing another 3.8 for 60 Minutes here. Can a series premiere possibly hang sub-50% retention of that? Immediate thing to check was the Ready for Love premiere - which lost over 50% of a 4.4 The Voice in the first half-hour - but I can't seriously predict Madam Secretary is on that level and expect to get away with it. Weaker than TAR even for a premiere? Sure, I can buy that. But also a ton more compatible - and having seen the trailers for both 60 Minutes (welfare fraud!) and this (a female Secretary of State doesn't do protocol and does do falling apart!) during football, all I can say is that the GOP-leaning synergy is strong in this one.

It'll have a horrific skew, but OVER.

Spot said...

OVER.

I think it'll surprise - 14 million / 2.2 demo

Spot said...

Over just because of lead in

Spot said...

CBS press says game got a 16.9 HH rating. That's up like 20% from last year's opener

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