Tuesday, September 30, 2014

Spotted Ratings, Monday 9/29/14


WHAT MATTERS:
  • FINALS UPDATE: It took multiple Monday Night Football pre-emptions, but ABC finally had a bad adjustment night as Dancing with the Stars (1.8) was down 0.1 and Castle (2.2) went down by 0.2. Still, Castle was even with last year's premiere. The Scorpion story got even sweeter as it picked up a tick to 3.1, leaving it down just a tenth week-to-week, while The Voice (4.0) also got a tenth of symbolic importance to put it above last week's rating.
  • The two big premieres from last Monday still looked quite promising in week two. Fox's Gotham (2.8) was down 13%. Normally that would be a very strong hold for this kind of show, but it paled in comparison to CBS' Scorpion (3.0). That show was preliminarily down just two tenths (or 6%) week-to-week despite a massive downgrade in lead-in (from 5.4 at 8:30 last week to 3.1 for a Big Bang repeat this week). It will have to endure even more downgrades when The Big Bang Theory (4.7) leaves Monday entirely, but we'll worry about those when they get here.
  • It wasn't all rosy for CBS, as NCIS: Los Angeles (1.9) was overwhelmed in its first 10/9c try against The Blacklist (2.8) and the return of Castle (2.4). This was two tenths behind its lowest rating in five seasons on Tuesday and 24% behind the May finale. Castle might adjust down due to football pre-emptions, but this number is currently the series' biggest rating since May 2012, continuing ABC's very hot streak.
  • Though The Blacklist (2.8) sagged by 18% vs. a couple drama premieres, The Voice (3.9) was even week-to-week and helped NBC pull farther ahead overall. Dancing with the Stars (1.9) was just below last week's prelim, which adjusted up two tenths in finals; we'll see if the football pre-emptions make things different in finals. And Sleepy Hollow (1.7) took a discouraging 15% drop from last week's already discouraging premiere.

FULL TABLE:

InfoShowTimeslotTrue
A18-49 Skew Last LeLa Rank y2yTLa Ty2y
Dancing with the Stars 1.8 18% +6%+0.1n/a 4/5 -10% -18% -11% 1.9
Castle 2.2 26% n/an/an/a 1/1 +0% +29% -2% 2.3
ABC:-5%-8%
The Big Bang Theory 4.8 37% -11%-0.6n/a 3/3 -8% -11% +55% 4.6
The Big Bang Theory (R) 3.1 32% -43% +55% 2.5
Scorpion 3.1 29% -3%-0.1-2.3 2/2 n/a -3% +35% 2.8
NCIS: Los Angeles 1.9 25% n/an/an/a 1/1 -37% +6% +27% 1.8
CBS:-14%+41%
The Voice Mon 4.0 39% +3%+0.1n/a 1/2 -15% +3% -14% 3.8
The Blacklist 2.8 34% -18%-0.6+0.1 2/2 -15% -18% -15% 2.5
NBC:-4%-14%
Gotham 2.8 48% -13%-0.4n/a 2/2 n/a -13% +24% 2.8
Sleepy Hollow 1.7 43% -15%-0.3-0.4 2/2 -43% -15% -43% 1.6
Fox:-13%-14%
iHeartRadio Music Festival p1 0.3 46% +0% +20% -14% 0.4
CW:+20%-14%
Big5:-8%-3%

KEY (click to expand)
A18-49 - Adults 18-49 rating. Percentage of US TV-owning adults 18-49 watching the program.
Skew - Percentage of adults 18-49 within the show's total viewership.
Last - A18-49 difference (percent and numerical) from the show's previous episode.
LeLa - A18-49 difference between the show's lead-in and its lead-in for the previous episode.
Rank - The A18-49 rating's rank among the show's episodes so far this season.
y2y - Percent difference between A18-49 and the show's rating a year ago.
TLa - Percent difference between A18-49 and the network's rating in the timeslot one week ago.
Ty2y - Percent difference between A18-49 and the network's rating in the timeslot one year ago.
True - A metric that adjusts the A18-49 rating for overall viewing levels, competition and lead-in. PRELIMINARY CALCULATION. For finals, see SpotVault.

(R) - Repeat.

Much more detail on these numbers at the New Daily Spotted Ratings page.

More Spotted Ratings in the Index.

50 comments:

Spot said...

Argh, all three of my misses have been because of CBS underperforming! And I can see myself doing it again on Wednesday with Stalker.

On the plus side for CBS, that is a very, very good hold for Scorpion, especially considering the big lead in drop. Pretty Person of Interest-esque.

Spot said...

I am very happy with myself right now that I went against the majority and picked Castle yesterday in the question. Adjustments could still screw me but they would have to be insane to really make a difference, so let's hope not.

I am stunned at how well Scorpion held. Very very good. I am happy for the show, I am really enjoying it. I am still a bit overwhelmed with the Sunday upward adjustments for OUAT and Resurrection though, kind of puts everything else in perspective.

Reserving judgment on ABC until after finals.

Spot said...

This is ABC's year! Never saw this coming.

And it looks like people liked what they saw in Scorpion, too - brilliant hold. At this point, it looks like a keeper.

Spot said...

I am pretty sure that today we will finally see downward adjustments for ABC, Castle really looks inflated and there were football preemptions.

However, did you see what happened with the Sunday finals? That is CRAZY!

Spot said...

Wow. CBS has terrible luck with finding new slots for returning dramas. The only thing that worked well in the last few years is the one everyone was sure would bomb (Hawaii Five-0). Other than that there were only non-failures (The Mentalist to Thursdays, CSI: New York to Fridays and The Good Wife to Sundays) and disasters (everything else).

Spot said...

I think this is what CBS should have expected, I am not sure why everyone else is calling it a let down.

NCIS was down almost 20% in a timeslot upgrade (no major 4.7
lead-in to go up against, plus new spin off heat). So for LA to be down
35% in a major timeslot downgrade (lower rated lead-in, less compatible
lead-in, much more drama competition, later timeslot) isn't that bad,
really.

Spot said...

I agree about LA. It outrated last year's Hostages premiere (1.8) as we as Hawaii 5-0 (1.8) 2 years ago! And considering the strongest drama competition LA has faced in the last TWO years is Supernatural (1.2). It faced 2 procedurals which in prelims have a combined 5.2 in drama competition.

Spot said...

Exactly. People need to put it in perspective how hard the slot is. (And I don't even watch the show so I don't have a horse in this race)

Spot said...

Is Scorpion less compatible than Rudolph the Red-Nosed Reindeer though? But also, remember las year LA went against The Voice, so it is not that much of a downgrade

Spot said...

Not a great result for the Blacklist, but it had several factors against it.
1. Post premiere drop. Almost all shows drop at least a bit after the premiere. Last year it dropped 13%
2. Complete change in competition. Not only are NCIS: LA and Castle stronger than Forver and Under the Dome, they are more similar to the Blacklist. Both are procedural crime fighting dramas as UTD is a serial and Forever has genre and medical elements.
.
All in all I think it only midly disappointing. I expected a 2.9-3.0. But keep in mind the last time it faced Castle it had a 2.6...

Spot said...

I think it can pull a Hawaii 5-0 seaon 3. NBC will be getting weaker in November. At the very least have less crossover. And Castle is bound to come down some. A 2.4 is very nice. Especially considering 2 episodes before it has at 1.6

Spot said...

The crossed audience between LA and The Voice should be very much lower than the crossed audience between LA and Castle and Blacklist combined, two high rated procedural aiming at the same target audience, who just got a 5.2 combined in preliminaries.


I agree that it was a stronger show when it aired out of Rudolph last year anyway but my point was that the whole NCIS brand is down. I would argue that New Orleans premiering at 2.5 is worse than LA premiering at 1.9 considering the different slots and age. Also, to put it in perspective, this is CBS's highest rated timeslot debut of a drama since H50's second season. Both Hostages and H50 got a 1.8 in previous years. And H50 proved that it was possible to go up from the initial number anyway.

Spot said...

To be honest, usually CBS' moves work pretty well for its aging titans. Survivor's move was great as CBS struggled for years at 8pm Weds
CSI's move to Weds also worked well as it was leading for 1.5 seasons in that slot.
BBT to Thursday, well you know how that went...same with it back on Mondays
H5O had a great transition to Fridays
Remember, CBS is very intentional in its moves...all of the above moves helped solidify a troubled spot on their schedule. Now 2 of the shows above are struggling in their slots but those two also have fat-syndication deals that CBS LOVES....this is why you keep moving these money-makers. NCIS:LA is down but will still make more money for CBS than higher rated shows on the net. That 1.9 is pretty darn safe

Spot said...

I agree entirely.

Spot said...

ABC has a history of premeiring big and than falling apart...I fully expect their new shows to slide as well as the continued erosion from older shows.

Spot said...

Good hold for Gotham. Especially considering that Shield dropped 30% in week 2. It basically mirrored Sleepy Hollows drop. My concern is that fans were a little less loving about episode 2. So it may keep dropping.
.
Big Bang was down 13% from the premiere. But it is almost exactly the same Plus of week 2, episode 3 from last year. League average drop seems likely for this season. The repeat following it is I believe that best Plus repeat since the mega Halloween one Modern Family had in 2011 (4.5, 190 Plus compared to 3.1, 182 Plus). I still think Mom may have done better. Seeing as Mom's best lead in Ever (2.8) is smaller than that repeat

Spot said...

NCIS: LA got hit with the Monday Night Football/procedural drama double whammy. I wouldn't be surprised with an uptick to at least get to a 2.0 demo, but it's been sheltered for so long in that one timeslot that some luster was bound to be lost.

Scorpion's hold looks good especially considering it had a repeat lead-in. I think that number is a little beyond what Mom probably would have scored had CBS' original plan stuck, but compatibility won out. By the way, just wanted to point out that due to CBS' late audible into Big Bang Theory reruns at 8:30, it's the only sitcom on the network through mid-October. That's how little they think of their current crop of comedies (not to mention this past development cycle where "sure-thing" How I Met Your Dad became the new NCIS: Red).

Gotham's hold in Week 2 is still on the same scale as Scorpion's to me: Gotham's asked to lead off the night on a troubled network. Scorpion is (currently) hammocked between two known quantities.

This will probably be the first night where ABC sees a downward adjustment for a show, but Castle should remain comfortably ahead for Question purposes. If it holds, or gets adjusted up, I have to give it up for ABC's marketing and scheduling heads for going all out this Fall.

Spot said...

Scorpion = Person of Interest. Scorpion 59% retention out of a 5.4. Person of Interest 61% retention out of a 5.1. Scorpion week 2 was 97% retention out of a lead in down 43%. Drops only 6%. Person of Interest week 2. 100% retention out of a lead in 47% smaller. Drops only 13%.

Spot said...

Cancel (confident). But I hope I'm wrong, love this show

Spot said...

I'm pretty sure that's headed for the zeros. Even Fox in 2014 wouldn't renew a zero.

Cancel (confident).

Spot said...

It is quite ridiculous. CBS is only running a single comedy. NBC didn't air a comedy all premiere week. For the same reason as CBS. They are sacrificing comedy developement (not premiering any nee comedies until October) or Drama developement (having normal comedy lead ins Voice Tuesday and Big Bang Theory air into dramas)

Spot said...

Cancel (confident)

But, after enjoying the first two episodes, I'd love for a miracle where it picks up momentum!!!

Spot said...

NCIS:LA is another situation where I can now potentially see CBS leaving it behind after this season, as I don't see it holding w/in 25% of this number going forward. It's barely even an improvement on premiere night Hostages (although it will show some gain year-to-year in timeslot tonight because the comparison will be against week 2 of Hostages).

As it was, I think The Question's onus should've been on Castle beating NCIS:LA by at least the 0.15 margin, if not higher. I felt that the pairing w/ Scorpion was a poor one tonally, even if it is a good one lead-in wise since Scorpion's holding strong for the time being. Like Spot himself said, though, we'll see where it is after Big Bang leaves, and whether this is a situation similar to the Thursday comedy block of the last few years.

If Castle doesn't drop big in finals, it would seem that wedding-based cliffhangers are in fact a big draw for the demo.


I wonder if perhaps I was right before about people only returning to The Blacklist last week because they'd forgotten how dull the show around Spader was. This number certainly suggests that NBC might have to alter their own Thursday night blacklist. (cause I had to do that at least once in this lengthy comment)

Spot said...

I think this is because the cultural moment has turned against the sitcom again after the overexposure they got the last two falls following that inexplicable 2011-12 season where they delivered all those seemingly inexplicable hits right at once. You look also at Fox, where New Girl and Mindy are flatlining (and deservedly so - both shows are garbage programming), and Brooklyn is having to be propped up by animated shows that have their own questions marks as to sustaining lead-outs long-term, particularly in live-action.

Spot said...

Cancel (Confident)

Spot said...

Terrifyingly, it's not a nailed-on call even after a 1.1 second week. But it's got to be more than a 67% shot.

Cancel (Confident).

Spot said...

Cancel (confident)

Spot said...

NCIS:LA doesn't surprise me but that's because there were so many variables at play that it could have been anywhere between 1.6-2.2 by my calculations. I was nervous Castle might crater (it might still after finals) but it looks like I made the right call.

Scorpion is the real surprise for me. BBT or not, I expected about a 2.7. It's an excellent result.

Spot said...

I expected NCIS:LA and TTBT higher, with Castle and Scorpion lower.
It seems every day of the new season brings some positive surprises, mixed with some negative ones, plus many shows at about expected ratings. Or maybe it's just me. Anyway, it's good there are multiple positive surprises.

Spot said...

Cancel (confident)

Spot said...

I'm surprised with Castle, even though the show is probably going to adjust down, I didn't expected to beat NCIS: LA on premiere night. Considering the competition, I think NCIS: LA did ok (but that "ok" is going to be enough for CBS when Scorpion is doing great with 3's?). I wonder if Sleepy Hollow is this season The Following? (It could even score a renewal since almost everything is looking really bad at FOX right now).

Spot said...

Cancel (Confident)

Spot said...

Cancel (Confident)

Spot said...

It feels like the Year of the Comedy was so long ago. 2 Broke Girls and New Girl had such big debuts. Now one's in fourth place and the other isn't good enough for a fall debut.

Spot said...

ABC getting 3 tenth adjustments on Once Upon a Time and Resurrection I think makes up for Castle and Dancing going down 2 tenths in my books.

Spot said...

The NCIS:LA move looks to me as though CBS were expecting Blacklist to move, like most people were. I wonder if LA will get a boost once State of Affairs takes the slot.

Spot said...

DWTS adjusted down one tenth and Castle adjusted down two tenths, just to clarify. But ABC's upward adjustment streak has been broken (for at least one night).

Spot said...

The finals have Big Bang going up and Castle down, so you got some of that

Spot said...

Cancel (confident)

It's unfortunate, as I like the show, but it's just not clicking. Even Fox can't take the sub-1's it'll end up getting.

Spot said...

Thanks, it's corrected. I misread the preliminary all day!

Spot said...

cancel confident

Spot said...

Cancel (confident)

Spot said...

Cancel (confident)

Spot said...

Well, they've certainly premiered big this year!

Spot said...

Cancel (Confident) Terrible ratings aside, FOX's top shows lean male ('cept Idol), and the new regime will probably go in that direction.

Spot said...

Cancel (Confident)

Spot said...

Cancel confident

Spot said...

Cancel (confident)


It's Mindy Project levels, and the lowest freshman for FOX.

Spot said...

cancel

Spot said...

Cancel confident

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