Friday, September 19, 2014

Spotted Ratings, Thursday 9/18/14

  • If last week represented the best CBS can expect from Thursday Night Football, last night (4.5 on CBS + NFLN combined) probably represented the worst. Not only did Bucs/Falcons look like the Thursday package's worst game going in, but the game quickly became a massive blowout.
  • In its last opportunity before real competition from ABC and Fox arrives, The Biggest Loser (1.3) took a pretty disappointing week two drop. It led into a The Mysteries of Laura (0.8) pilot encore.


A18-49 Skew Last LeLa Rank y2yTLa Ty2y
Grey's Anatomy (R) 0.7 23% +40% -26% 1.0
Scandal (R) 0.7 25% +40% -22% 1.1
Scandal (R) 0.8 25% +14% +0% 1.2
Thursday Night Football Kickoff 2.2 38% -35%-1.2n/a 2/2 n/a -37% +0% 3.4
Thursday Night Football 4.5 48% -40%-3.0-1.2 2/2 n/a -41% +196% 6.5
The Biggest Loser 1.3 36% -19%-0.3n/a 2/2 n/a -19% +2% 1.9
The Mysteries of Laura (R) 0.8 26% -16% +7% 1.2
Sleepy Hollow (R) 0.5 31% -44% -75% 0.7
Sleepy Hollow (R) 0.5 31% -17% -55% 0.9
The Vampire Diaries (R) 0.2 47% -20% -20% 0.3
The Originals (R) 0.2 42% +33% +0% 0.3

KEY (click to expand)
A18-49 - Adults 18-49 rating. Percentage of US TV-owning adults 18-49 watching the program.
Skew - Percentage of adults 18-49 within the show's total viewership.
Last - A18-49 difference (percent and numerical) from the show's previous episode.
LeLa - A18-49 difference between the show's lead-in and its lead-in for the previous episode.
Rank - The A18-49 rating's rank among the show's episodes so far this season.
y2y - Percent difference between A18-49 and the show's rating a year ago.
TLa - Percent difference between A18-49 and the network's rating in the timeslot one week ago.
Ty2y - Percent difference between A18-49 and the network's rating in the timeslot one year ago.
True - A metric that adjusts the A18-49 rating for overall viewing levels, competition and lead-in. PRELIMINARY CALCULATION. For finals, see SpotVault.

(R) - Repeat.

Much more detail on these numbers at the New Daily Spotted Ratings page.

More Spotted Ratings in the Index.


Spot said...

The Biggest Loser nearing niche comedies territory. God, NBC would like if week would have 6 days, if after Wednesday simply would come Friday.

NFL blowout: Shit happens, networks know it when paying for sports.

Spot said...

NBC thursdays can't catch a break.

I'm leaning towards Silvio's worst case scenario for Blacklist on thursdays, unless it's a Grey's Anatomy aberration that doesn't care about lead-ins, it'll be toasted and average mid to high 1s.

Spot said...

Think about late October when it will be confined to an hour, with The Big Bang Theory taking up half of the runtime against it!

Spot said...

To be fair, I retracted a bit after The Blacklist got post-Superbowl slot. Now I think it will be mid to high 1s in 2nd half of Thursday stint. Before SB gimmick is announced, I thought The Blacklist would enter that territory soon after moving to Thursday.

Spot said...

Married season finale 0.36, 10-episodes average same - 0.36 Live+SD.
You're the Worst season finale 0.31, 10-episodes averaged 0.30 Live+SD.

Chozen was cancelled with 0.35, then I doubt either will air any more episodes on FX.
But Legit was moved to FXX after 1st season averaged 0.37, so maybe...

I guess it depends on C3 ratings, on 18-34 ratings, on how well those comedies repeat... all of which FX knows, and we don't.
But probably ain't stellar numbers, when neither is yet renewed.

Spot said...

Spot, when will the GQ numbers for football be available? I'm expecting this could be a really interesting test.

Thanks to the Bucs' garbage-time rally, this isn't actually the biggest blowout in primetime this decade - that was the Colts-Saints SNF game from 2011, a 62-7 curbstomping that was scheduled on the assumption it'd be Manning rather than Curtis Painter under center for the visitors (and might well be part of why the league can now call an audible on two midseason SNF games - had that been in place in 2011, this would assuredly have been one of them). The GQ on that was -7%, and I suspect last night is right "up" with that.

Spot said...

Spot, random place to ask but: won't the vault pages this year have the true metric and the factors? I always enjoy to compare those with the actual 18-49 numbers.

Spot said...

I am utterly shocked that TBL is hitting these lows. The show did a 110 and 102 in Plus for the last two seasons! Unless it's particularly hit by football, these results are just awful.

Spot said...

Yeah. I predicted 1.50 average, and it's 1.45 already after 2 episodes. Unexpected low.

But, hey, I changed my mind about Shondaland being split seasons. Now I agree with your opinion (ABC Thursday lineup returning from hiatus at 2/26/2015).
Actually, you confused me with claim there's room for only 11 episodes in the fall. They can squeeze in 12 in fall, and then everything fits:

9/25/2014 to 11/20/2014 9 weeks
GA/Scandal/"Murder" - 9 episodes each


12/4/2014 to 12/18/2014 3 weeks
GA/Scandal/"Murder" - 3 episodes each

12/25/2014 to 2/19/2015 9 weeks
Fillers and repeats until after The Oscars (2/22/2015)

2/26/2015 and 3/5/2015 2 weeks
8 PM Grey's Anatomy
9 PM 2-hours "Murder"
With those 4 hours How to Get Away with Murder would be at 16, and at the same time Grey's 24 would be synchronized with Scandal's 22.

3/12/2015 to 5/14/2015 10 weeks
GA/Scandal/Secrets and Lies - 10 episodes each

This is much more clean schedule than the one I sugested before. No random repeats, all 3 season finales at 5/14/2015. Only unusual thing is

Spot said...

Yes. Still working on formatting. Hope they will be up next week.

Spot said...

Hoping they'll be up next week.

Spot said...

In addition to the quality of the game, I would have to think that the majority of the viewers of Auburn-Kansas St. (1.3) would have been watching the NFL game if not for the college one. I know that I would have! S-E-C!!! S-E-C!!! S-E-C!!! (I go to Vanderbilt)

Spot said...

Cool, thanks!

Spot said...

I agree with the principle but I think it would be odd to have Murder come back after a 2 month hiatus only for 2 weeks. I also think it would be better for ABC to promote the return of Shondaland as a whole after the hiatus, which would have to include Scandal since it's the centerpiece. It would be much easier to promote at the Oscars, etc.

Therefore, I would rather have all three come back on the 26th of February and then have the last two weeks of the season being GA/Secrets and Lies/Secrets and Lies.

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