Friday, September 26, 2014

Spotted Ratings, Premiere Thursday 9/25/14


WHAT MATTERS:
  • FINALS UPDATE: All three ABC shows added another tenth in finals. CBS' Giants/Redskins football game averaged a 6.0 (combined with NFLN), up 33% from last week. It was at roughly 4.7 on only CBS. The big five were up 12% vs. last year's premiere Thursday, though it's more like 1% once the NFLN numbers are taken out of the CBS ratings. (CBS would be +12% vs. their big one-hour Big Bang + The Crazy Ones night last year.)
  • ABC is definitely thanking God that it's Thursday. Grey's Anatomy (3.0) took only an average drop from last year's premiere in its move to 8/7c, a really outstanding result given mid-2's were the norm even at 9:00 late last season. Scandal (3.8) is already at a new series high, two tenths above last year's premiere, and it could be farther ahead after finals. And How To Get Away With Murder (3.8) was the week's biggest newbie premiere, drawing a large crowd even outside the Scandal audience. (Beyond matching Scandal's demo, it also shot up from Scandal's total viewership by over two million.) ABC was +32% vs. last year's Premiere Thursday, which featured two hours of Grey's and an Agents of SHIELD repeat. It's not clear how sustainable all of this is, but it's not a huge stretch to say it could end up being ABC's strongest three-hour lineup since the Desperate Housewives/Grey's Anatomy heydays.
  • Given these huge numbers, the results weren't too ugly for premieres on Fox and NBC. Bones (1.6) basically matched its spring numbers but was way down from last fall, while NBC's Parenthood (1.4) was within two tenths of last season's premiere despite a much smaller lead-in. Parenthood narrowly outrated lead-in The Biggest Loser (1.3), which held even week-to-week against the increased competition. NBC was -20% vs. last year's premiere Thursday, while Fox had another very ugly number at -46% (though this time a 9/8c Sleepy Hollow repeat (0.7) is at least something of an excuse).
  • Football details after finals, but even in another blowout, the game looks to be well up from last week.

FULL TABLE:

InfoShowTimeslotTrue
A18-49 Skew Last LeLa Rank y2yTLa Ty2y
Grey's Anatomy 3.1 39% n/an/an/a 1/1 -9% +313% +158% 3.2
Scandal 3.9 41% n/an/an/a 1/1 +8% +239% +16% 3.6
How To Get Away With Murder 3.9 35% n/an/an/a 1/1 n/a +290% +11% 3.8
ABC:+276%+35%
Thursday Night Football Kickoff 2.2 39% +0%+0.0n/a 2/3 n/a -4% -60% 2.4
Thursday Night Football 6.0 47% +33%+1.5+0.0 2/3 n/a +27% +76% 6.3
CBS:+24%+43%
The Biggest Loser 1.3 37% +0%+0.0n/a 2/3 n/a -4% -24% 1.6
Parenthood 1.4 42% n/an/an/a 1/1 -13% +87% -13% 1.7
NBC:+16%-20%
Bones 1.6 32% n/an/an/a 1/1 -30% +220% -24% 1.8
Sleepy Hollow (R) 0.6 33% +9% -70% 0.9
Fox:+110%-46%
The Vampire Diaries (R) 0.2 42% +0% -20% 0.3
The Originals (R) 0.2 51% +0% +0% 0.4
CW:+0%-11%
Big5:+74%+12%

KEY (click to expand)
A18-49 - Adults 18-49 rating. Percentage of US TV-owning adults 18-49 watching the program.
Skew - Percentage of adults 18-49 within the show's total viewership.
Last - A18-49 difference (percent and numerical) from the show's previous episode.
LeLa - A18-49 difference between the show's lead-in and its lead-in for the previous episode.
Rank - The A18-49 rating's rank among the show's episodes so far this season.
y2y - Percent difference between A18-49 and the show's rating a year ago.
TLa - Percent difference between A18-49 and the network's rating in the timeslot one week ago.
Ty2y - Percent difference between A18-49 and the network's rating in the timeslot one year ago.
True - A metric that adjusts the A18-49 rating for overall viewing levels, competition and lead-in. PRELIMINARY CALCULATION. For finals, see SpotVault.

(R) - Repeat.

Much more detail on these numbers at the New Daily Spotted Ratings page.

More Spotted Ratings in the Index.

48 comments:

Spot said...

I don't even know what to say. I am so happy for all three shows. All three did even better than my expectations. I gotta say though that the biggest overachiever by far for me is Grey's Anatomy! It held rock solid in that ugly 8pm slot. And it's in its 11th season for god sake. Scandal hitting season highs in its 4th season is... crazy! And Murder will most likely take the crowd as the highest rated drama of the season! ABC is probably trying to convince Shonda to develop comedies now. This is insane.



Elsewhere, I do think Bones and Parenthood did well given expectations, especially Parenthood.

Spot said...

It has to he the biggest episode in that slot in Plus for the era. It most certainly beats out Flashforward's 4.0 from '09

Spot said...

I was just looking through the guesses from yesterday to see if anyone was close, and even if it doesn't adjust down your prediction was very impressive, by far the closest of those who gave a specific number.

Spot said...

I agree. It's exceptional all around.

The crazy thing is that all three shows could be like 1 full point or MORE lower and it would still be very good in relative terms, it's insane.

Spot said...

Murder basically grew out of Scandal, since the latter one got a 3.7 in the second half hour. Impressive!
This and Ressurection both show how a good marketing can make broadcast TV ratings go beyond anyone's expectations.

Spot said...

I love days like these. It's a rare night any network wished it had: each of the shows the network aired dominating the competition. Even CBS can't do that no matter where Big Bang is. The only one I can think of is NBC Monday. Dis gon b gud.

Spot said...

I think Viola Davis is the one insisting on a shorter run. She, along with Ellen Pompeo and Kerry Washington were on Nightline Wednesday, and she described television as "a marathon." Plus, if she wants to do another movie, she'd need a couple months off, anyways.

Spot said...

An amazing debut for Shonda Thursday. Scandal was slightly below my inflated expectations, but I did not see HTGAWM getting 100% retention, and certainly didn't see a 3.0 for Grey's there! We'll see how it does against TBBT in a few weeks, but at this point my speculative "ABC might win the season" from the summer is actually a legitimate prediction.

Spot said...

And we have liftoff on ABC Thursdays. As those who might have read my Question submission yesterday might know, I kinda figured that this would happen, since I felt the Murder ads were far better done than most of ABC's garbage ad campaigns this year (and in recent years in general). I could still see Grey's falling victim to The Mork & Mindy Curse (TM), but for that to happen it either has to cave hard thru the rest of the season or simply prove too expensive. If I had to guess, the latter is more likely at this point.


I can't help but think that this is Bones' final season. It hasn't been announced yet, but w/ that number, it's now only a matter of time.


Those NBC numbers are rotten, but Biggest Loser is cheaper than MJ Fox and Sean, so I think they'll be just fine taking that gut punch while they wait for The Blacklist.


CBS has got to be afraid that all these blowouts might end up affecting their package at some point. So far, it seems like a solid ratings winner, but that won't last unless the NFL figures out how to give Thursday nights balanced games.

Spot said...

It's tough for a comedy to be a beachhead the way a drama can because of run times. Dramas are usually one hour, so one might high in one hour and boost the next hour. A comedy's influence, on the other hand, has to filter through one other show to get to the next hour. BBT can get high-4s to mid-5s, but when that's wasted on The Millers then none of that boost can get to the 9:30 show or Elementary.

Spot said...

I don't think these games were all foreseeable blowouts at all - I understand Vegas had the line last night at Washington -3.5, and the line last week was Atlanta -6.5. And they're all divisional games, so at the very least both teams ought to be pumped up for them.

Spot said...

It looks like the Biggest Loser won't be much of a lead in for the comedies next week. Same goes for Bones and Gracepoint

Spot said...

I was surpised at how old ABC actually skewed, but 34% isn't bad for a legal drama. Just as Harry's Law or The Good Wife

Spot said...

What was the line on Steelers-Ravens? A 20-point differential is rare for the recent history of that rivalry - most of their showdowns since about 2007 have been single digits because the defenses usually ground the opposing offenses to a halt, even in crappy years for the Steelers like 2013.

Spot said...

At this point, if it doesn't have a DC logo in the production cards, it's safe to predict doom for Fox programming. Let's just say, the rabid fox loose in my area would have made better programming decisions than Kevin Reilly.

Spot said...

I think that Murder's performance is very impressive. I think less impressive than Shield and Resurrection since they had to self start more. More on par with Sleepy Hollow

Spot said...

Ravens -2.5.

As I said, nobody saw these blowouts coming. CBS have just been cursed so far.

Spot said...

Actually, I think Son Of The Bronx at least sorta predicted that TNF would be a string of blowouts, and fully predicted a lot of sloppy play. He seems to believe that making teams play on four (sometimes three, if a team plays MNF one week and TNF the next) is a recipe for sewer ball.

Spot said...

I think Sundays will be a big part of whether or not that prediction comes true, as will whatever they find to bridge the hiatus of the serials at midseason but they do have a shot. Getting rid of Nashville would also help.

Spot said...

Oh, sloppy is definitely possible. I'd actually legitimately like to see the schedule expanded by a week whilst remaining at 16 games, and for every team to have a bye before a Thursday game (including Thanksgiving) except for those playing on opening night. (This might also be a way of opening up a London franchise, come to think of it.)

I'd be thinking bye weeks between 3 and 14, with a kickoff night double-header (perhaps with both conference champions at home, extending the tradition of the SB winners hosting the opening game, although that would be awkward with the possible 10pm kickoff), then the usual triple-threat on Thanksgiving, and eleven other TNF games in weeks 4-13 and 15 (if we bring the start of the regular season forward a week then Thanksgiving is Week 14 on this sked). You could shift the double-header to week 4, which would be a good way to give CBS an early-season boost (it'd be either the first or second Thursday of the TV regular season, depending on when Labor Day falls).

Spot said...

Or just burning it in a low-priority slot and let Black-ish lead into something that could use it. (The Whispers?!?)

Aside from Nashville, they are loaded at the back end of the week. Every other hour from Wednesday through Friday is at least competitive, and all three 9pm hours (plus potentially Thursday 10) are dominant. Monday's hanging tough, too. As you say, Sunday is a big night for them now - they need that Frozen arc on OUAT to catch some heat. I think it will, but a lot of it might be P12-17 heat...

Spot said...

The Whispers should go to Tuesdays and pair with Shield IMO, it's the only piece of compatible programming around.

On Wednesday, I think they have the right idea (a female skewing soap against two strong procedurals), but the wrong show. Members Only?

Spot said...

Under with a 1.5

Spot said...

Ugh, this is the most difficult line for me this week. Over.

Spot said...

The presence of Shark Tank is swaying me. Under

Spot said...

I saw The Happening recently. No one who has seen The Happening will watch The Whispers. And I'm not sure anyone else is all that interested either.

Spot said...

Under

Spot said...

I for one thought Resurrection's campaign was garbage. I still don't know why anyone showed up for that.

Spot said...

Grey's was certainly my biggest surprise. I thought for sure The Mork & Mindy Curse would strike right away. Now, it's looking like a bit of a long shot for the post-Betty portion of the Curse to continue this year.

Spot said...

Blown away by ABC's numbers, I didn't expect Grey's to return on a new slot with a 3.0 or Murder retaining 100% of Scandal's demo. Outstanding for ABC overall.

Spot said...

Revenge did have a limited premise, and even fans of it at the start agree it ran out of story somewhere between episodes 13 and 22 of season one.

Spot said...

Only if you ignore the existence of football.

Spot said...

Pretty sure Scandal will beat Murder, which has one episode so far to gauge its merits so hasn't shown any proof of consistency.

Spot said...

It would have ended well at episode 22.

Spot said...

Hm... This is a horrible line (by which I mean it's a perfect line). I want to say it matches Boss's year ago numbers but Shark Tank is a big deal and I imagine the overlap between both is huge. So I say it falls just shy of it. A 1.5. That would be UNDER

Spot said...

When two reality shows face head-to-head, the one that's on the downswing really takes it on the chin. We've seen this with Hell's Kitchen facing Survivor this week and Hell's facing a special Thursday Shark Tank last season. Between The Amazing Race and Shark Tank, it's clear that the former is the one on the downswing. Combine that with the timeslot move, and it doesn't look great.


Under.

Spot said...

Which proves my point perfectly...

Spot said...

That's show's gonna be on three weeks!!!

Spot said...

Over.
My first thought was over. But you say Shark Tank is in the hour, huh? Then still over, but with no confidence at all, this seems to be a perfect line.

Spot said...

Under. I feel like right now, the later in the week anything that isn't football is on CBS, the less likely it is to have any momentum among the demo. And Amazing Race has lost a chunk of momentum in recent seasons. And Shark Tank probably ensures it can't get off to a solid start, unless people start losing interest in that this year. (recall, everything has a Sell By date, something TAR itself is showing off right now)

Spot said...

Under. There is no precedent of premiering up in a move to Friday. Last season it was void of reality competition in its time slot. It is coming off a fall and spring both down 20%. I see it having to be between a 1.3-1.5. I would be very surprised to see higher or lower

Spot said...

Well, I think it is a fairly relatable human notion to be drawn to the idea of the ones you loved and lost returning.

Spot said...

OVER

Spot said...

Under.

Spot said...

I hope that this is not the last season of TAR, but I know it is near the end of its run. Unlike with some other shows, my interest in TAR tends to go up and down, but it is pretty high right now (especially as the 7 PM Central slot allows me to do whatever later on). With that said, Friday moves are tough, so I will go just UNDER at a 1.5.

Spot said...

Under at 1.5. The special Shark Tank will destroy it.

Spot said...

I'd sked The Astronaut Wives Club on Wednesdays.

As for The Whispers, I agree that a Tuesday pairing with SHIELD makes sense, but if Forever continues to pleasantly surprise it's probably off the table unless the comedy block gets the hook. Since there's only Fresh Off the Boat as a back-up it's very possible.

Spot said...

Under

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