Wednesday, September 24, 2014

The Question, Tuesday 9/23/14: Will NCIS: New Orleans Ratings Geaux High?


Tonight, CBS has its third drama premiere in three nights. The Sunday and Monday efforts may have been somewhat experimental scheduling-wise, but NCIS: New Orleans is a good old-fashioned spin-off placed right after its mother program. It seems like a decent bet for success, but it will face more drama competition (from Agents of SHIELD) than NCIS: Los Angeles used to in this slot, and it's leading out of an NCIS mothership that just took its biggest seasonal drop in series history. Will NCIS: New Orleans ratings geaux high? That's The Question for Tuesday, September 23, 2014.


NCIS and NCIS: LA Last Season
3.6/2.81/2.6 (NCIS premiere/avg/finale)
3.0/2.43/2.5 (NCIS: Los Angeles premiere/avg/finale)
4.4 (NCIS: LA series premiere, 9/22/09 (4.8 NCIS lead-in))

This show should, like LA, keep 90-100% of the mothership viewers for the series premiere. So though this is an NCIS: New Orleans Question, it may be more about how well NCIS comes back. Spin-off hype may bring some viewers back into the mothership tent, and the competition should be noticeably reduced from 2013 with no massive Agents of SHIELD launch and The Voice slumping a bit. (In fact, the mothership faces nothing scripted at 8/7c.) But it could take a noticeable step below last year's premiere anyway, as last season began with the heavily-hyped departure of Cote De Pablo.

NCIS: New Orleans Over/Under: 2.95.

No entries accepted after 6:00am ET the morning after the date in the headline. If editing your pick, please leave a separate comment.

50 comments:

Spot said...

Under

Spot said...

Under... 2.6

Spot said...

Under, but just barely, 2.9.


I was hoping for a Shield question though, I think it's more unpredictable.

Spot said...

Over

Spot said...

Under

Spot said...

CBS has promoted this like crazy all summer. But CBS got a great advertising opportunity in the last 2 days. The NFL rematch went into overtime creating huge ratings. Also this year they had the Big Bang BEFORE NCIS premieres to promote. I think NCIS will be way up from the spring. FOX and the CW are basically invisible tonight. Dancing Results won't be near as strong as Shield.
.
NCIS: New Orleans is super compatible with NCIS. All ads I have seen for it (minus the Football ones where they just say the name and timeslot) have been NCIS and NCIS: NO adds. Showing Gibbs in New Orleans like he's a regular. It has the higher viewed timeslot. Total viewers will be insane

Spot said...

Just realized I never posted an answer. I'm going optimistic, again. OVER

Spot said...

Unofficial Shield poll?
Agents of Shield Over/Under: 2.45

Spot said...

under. 2.6.

Spot said...

Over. I am very high on the show's ratings this season. I may be in for a rude awakening but well.

Spot said...

I change my guess to over. There will be an actual crossover with the mothership I've learned now (or so have the promos indicated?), so I think that will put it over.

Spot said...

If I go by what happened with Blacklist, I'll say NCIS is at 3.3 or 3.2. With that, New Orleans will get about...let's say 93% retention? So, I say over, but just barely.

Spot said...

Over.

Spot said...

under

Spot said...

Over

Spot said...

Under with a 2.8

Spot said...

Under.
Around 2.7. I think NCIS mothership will be barely over that line, and I don't expect from spinoff to achieve near 100% retention.

Spot said...

4.4 in P12-17, if this episode is crossover with Frozen. If not, around 10% less.

Spot said...

Over. Slightly. And then under very quickly and significantly as the weeks progress.

Spot said...

Under in same day ratings.

Spot said...

Under.

NCIS needs to score a 3.3 at least for NCIS:NO to score a 3.0 under the 90% assumption listed above (I'd think 80-85% is probably more realistic so NCIS needs a 3.5?). Add Shield into the mix and some Voice audience who won't flip over to CBS at 9pm away from from NBC dramedies as in previous years means steeper competition than NCIS:LA faced.

Spot said...

I think that premiere week tends to do better than all other weeks (even y2y- wasn't premiere week UP last year?). Because of that, I will go just OVER at a 3.1

Spot said...

SHIELD will return as merely a decent player, and the slot is wiiiiiiiiiiiide open for the NCIS mothership to pull in big numbers.

Can the spinoff premiere in the 3s? There was enough football promotion, and a big enough game on CBS two nights ago, for me to think it can. And if this episode is a crossover, that locks in very nice retention indeed. OVER.

Spot said...

I'm struggling on this one, because NCIS: Mothership has had a rough go of it since Ziva left. It shed half a ratings point once that plotline was resolved, and never got it back. It was getting some really dire numbers in the spring.


Overall, I think NCIS will not reach the level it got for last premiere. Instead, I think it will reach about 3.1. That basically requires a complete hold from NO, and I just don't think that'll happen. Under at 2.8.

Spot said...

Over. Maybe a new spin off on the night can make NCIS go a little higher than usual? I'm not very confident on this one.

Spot said...

Under.

Spot said...

Over

Spot said...

Over. NCIS can do 3.6 again this year, against much less competition.

Spot said...

under

Spot said...

Under. 2.7/2.8.

Is it really a crossover episode, guys? Doesn't seem to be (and I'm betting as if it isn't), but that information could change my mind. =|

Spot said...

Under

Spot said...

Over

Spot said...

Under, for me it lost too many viewers a long time ago to get back to the high 2's.

Spot said...

Over

Spot said...

Over

Spot said...

Under.

Spot said...

Hmmm. OVER.

Just a side note: my mother rarely (if ever) watches NCIS, but will be tuning in for NCIS: New Orleans tonight. Why? I dunno, but she said it looked good.

Spot said...

I think it's more of a cameo, the main guy from NCIS is just popping in for a little or something. Apparently there are a lot of these crossover/cameos planned.

Spot said...

Not "the main guy". (Gibbs) The M.E. (Ducky) And presumably by Skype, at that.

Spot said...

Over


Very uncertain about this, but Scorpion's performance just re-affirmed CBS's ability to successfully launch a drama. Wouldn't be surprised either way though

Spot said...

UNDER

Spot said...

I'm predicting a 3.2 for NCIS. LA got a 3.0 last year


NO = NCIS * 85% = ~2.7, my pick is under.

Spot said...

Under.

Spot said...

NCIS New Orleans will draw in total viewers but I predict not over your watermark in Adults 18-49.

Under

Spot said...

Oh, Mark Harmon is going to be in episode 3, that's where I got confused. I suppose it isn't a particularly heavily advertised affair then, is it? Reminds me of the Chief Wiggum PI episode of The Simpsons, where the Simpsons were in the New Orleans parade.

Spot said...

I need to watch The Simpsons, so I'm not confused by references to it.

Spot said...

Chief Wiggum, P.I. will return...right now!



Look Big Daddy, it's Regular Daddy!

Spot said...

Over. A new spin-off raises all boats.

Spot said...

NCIS: NO will be fine in my opinion.


Then again, look what happened to CSI: NY and CSI: Miami. :D

Spot said...

Hooray. I didn't see why one would think NCIS would recover so much.

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