Sunday, September 14, 2014

Fall 2014 Best Case/Worst Case, Sunday 9/8c


Best Case/Worst Case moves to the Sunday 9/8c hour, where ABC will try to salvage a long-term success out of the huge-starting and quick-dropping Resurrection. Meanwhile, Fox's live-action Sunday comedy experiment continues with a newbie at 9:30.



Resurrection
Premieres September 28
y2y Label True Sitch 2013-14 Slot
2.51 hit 2.42 +4% Sunday 9:00

Timeslot OccupantsRevenge Resurrection
Avg Orig Avg
2.21 1.96 1.62 1.59 2.51 2.42

Best Case: It may have had a short first season, but it's also getting back on the air quickly, unlike other sophomore slumpers like The Following and Under the Dome. It will air the season much earlier on the calendar this year, and it also gets a head start this time on its most formidable competitor (The Walking Dead). So it surges back to a mid-2's premiere and settles above a 2.0 after TWD is in play. 2.26, down 10% to the same Plus as last season.

Worst Case: No, it wasn't off for eight or nine months like other limited series. But it also had a much more disturbing trend within its very short season one run, dropping a full half of its premiere audience in just six weeks. This would have been a very shaky renewal even if the order had just a few more episodes, and everybody bails over the hiatus. Opens at a new series low and settles in the low-1's, averaging a 1.40 (down 44%). For the full season, this may be a bubble-ish average, but the trend is bad enough that it gets canned.

Likeliest: It's not quite the same situation as The Following and Under the Dome but I think the huge drops within season one were drastic enough that it cancels out some of the benefits Resurrection has. The trend will be similar. It comes back toward the low end of season one results and settles in the mid-1's. It's still an improvement on Revenge, and that may well get it another season, but that 3.8 premiere is a very distant memory. Down 32% to 1.71.



The Good Wife
Premieres September 21
y2y Label True Sitch 2013-14 Slot
1.42 -14% marginal 1.49 -5% Sunday 9:00

Timeslot OccupantsThe Good Wife
Avg Orig Avg
1.75 1.60 1.38 1.45

Best Case: The Good Wife held up OK last year even as The Amazing Race had two bad cycles. And though Madam Secretary probably isn't going to get the same 18-49 rating as The Amazing Race, it's much more compatible with both The Good Wife and 60 Minutes, helping more viewers flow from the NFL inflation all the way into the 9:00 hour. It stays even at 1.42.

Worst Case: I don't watch this show but the last season seemed well-reviewed even by The Good Wife standards. A jumping of the shark quality-wise is bound to happen eventually. Throw in the epic disaster that is Madam Secretary leading in, a little more competition from Resurrection in the fall, and it's down 22% to 1.11. Finally, it's dunzo.

Likeliest: I don't think the Madam Secretary shake-up will be much of a difference-maker, as I'm not sure TGW was ever that compatible with The Amazing Race anyway. And I'm not projecting Madam to be around the whole season anyway. Continues its slow ratings descent by dropping 13% to 1.24.



Sunday Night Football
Premieres September 4
y2y Label True Sitch 2013-14 Slot
7.90 -3% megahit 7.22 +9% Sunday 8:30

Timeslot OccupantsSunday Night Football Believe
Avg Orig Avg
4.50 1.12 7.85 7.50 1.11 1.27

Best Case: The franchise has been down in raw numbers for the last two years, and by NFL standards that's "underachievement." It will even out from that and return to its 8.36 raw numbers zenith from two years ago, marking a +6% season.

Worst Case: The NFL has simply reached a point where it can't really grow anymore. And in fact, a rather discouraging preseason suggests it may be on a cultural downturn. A third major primetime package on Thursday oversaturates the NFL market. Sunday Night Football drops about in line with entertainment programming, if not a bit more, down over 10% to 7.00.

Likeliest: Preseason returns are not exactly encouraging, but they're probably not all that meaningful either. Still, factor in that and the added Thursday games and I think the year-to-year trend will continue to ever-so-slightly worsen. But I can't see it getting down into entertainment programming decline territory. Down about 4.5% to a 7.55.



Family Guy
Premieres September 28
y2y Label True Sitch 2013-14 Slot
2.34 -13% solid 2.33 +0% Sun 9:00, Sun 8:30

Timeslot OccupantsFamily Guy Cosmos: A Spacetime Odyssey
Avg Orig Avg
3.66 2.02 2.53 2.43 1.52 1.66

Best Case: The 8:30 episodes hurt the average last year. It's back at 9/8c permanently, and it may benefit somewhat from a crossover with The Simpsons. Down just 4% to a 2.25.

Worst Case: It's surrounded by live-action comedies, which will weaken the flow of the night in general. It will be a lot tougher for this series with a Brooklyn Nine-Nine lead-in. Down 23% to a 1.80.

Likeliest: If the live-action shows really do poorly enough to derail the whole night, Fox will likely reinstall Bob's Burgers at 8:30 and premiere Bordertown at 9:30. So if it's a major problem, it won't be a major problem for all that long. Still, I think it'll be enough of a problem to keep it from doing much better than last year's decline, even if it's at 9:00 all year. -13% to 2.04.



Mulaney (NEW!)
Premieres October 5

Timeslot OccupantsAmerican Dad! Cosmos: A Spacetime Odyssey
Avg Orig Avg
3.12 1.75 2.01 1.86 1.52 1.66

Best Case: John Mulaney is a TV star waiting to happen. Remember how stoked the media was when NBC first considered this show, then how bummed it was when NBC passed? They know this guy has huge potential. It works out some early kinks and eventually starts matching its Family Guy lead-in. 2.05.

Worst Case: That buzz around the NBC Mulaney seems to have died in the transition to Fox, suggesting a show that might have gotten network-noted to death. It has miserable 60% or lower retention out of Family Guy and is replaced pretty early in the fall. Animated repeats and/or some fill-in Bob's Burgers episodes do much better, and Bordertown launches in the winter. 1.20.

Likeliest: I'm not that worried about shaky initial reviews, because there are often early issues with comedies, even ones that end up being great. It has a good enough lead-in that it can keep a certain level of viewership through that period. My issue here is I just don't think the brand of humor I've seen in the trailer matches that well with Fox's animation. It seems like more wholesome stuff than what the Family Guy crowd expects. Fox may look back and wish they'd had this with Brooklyn on Tuesday last season and launched Dads after Family Guy this season. While I see Brooklyn doing just a tenth lower than the second-tier animated shows, Mulaney's gap may be more significant. 1.42, and it's done after its initial 16-ep order. I gave Brooklyn a similar average, but Brooklyn will air deeper into the spring. Brooklyn will have a clearly higher average at the time Mulaney gives way to Bordertown.



The Basics:

bc Rank y2y Rank TPUT Rank bc/TPUT Rank
Sunday 9:00 11.8 1 -6% 12 37.5 1 31% 3



The Cable:

ShowNetworkPremieres Avg y2y
The Walking Dead FallAMC10/126.62+24%
Boardwalk EmpireHBO9/70.78-5%
HomelandShowtime10/50.76-9%



The Network to Watch: As with the 8:00 hour, it comes down to a wild card sophomore vs. a newbie. This time I'm taking the wild card sophomore Resurrection, though, because it actually has a track record of solid ratings production. ABC.



The Picks: I was on the fence about giving up Resurrection last year. Feels like it might be another The Following where I bail after the season two premiere. Beyond that, will try Mulaney but the only certainty is The Walking Dead.

21 comments:

Spot said...

3 of 4 I see relatively close to Spot+s "likely", but Mulaney I see much lower.

Family Guy : Brooklyn Nine-Nine instead of Bob's Burgers should have negative impact, but the minimal one. Thus, I predict average league drop to around 2.10

Mulaney : This looks both weakly written, and highly incompatible with Family Guy. Yet, authors are encouraging comparisons with Seinfeld. Oh, boy, that could be double-edged sword. I see 50% retention, with Friday burn off at some moment. Soon, if one of backups (Bordertown, Weird Loners) is ready to air. I expect 1.05 A18-49 , with my best case 1.50, and worst something like 0.80.

Resurrection: I expect it to return above 2.0, but to go into high 1s after few episodes, with mid 1s later in the season (order is 15-16 episodes this time around). My likely is 1.80 with best/worse 2.00/1.60.

The Good Wife: Tough timeslot became even tougher with W25-54 stealing Resurrection, and getting (probably) weak "Madam" lead-in. I cannot be optimistic, 20% down to 1.15. Best case (if they go GoT style again and kill off some among main characters) 1.30, worst 1.00.
Note: I can see it a tick or two higher if it is shortened final season. That would be scenario where CBS moves CSI to 9 PM (to logically lead into spinoff) after NFL ends.

Spot said...

Resurrection: I see the biggest sophomore slump potential here too, down 30% to 1.75 (even worse if it wasn't for its 16 episode season).


The Good Wife - timeslot is tougher than ever, down 17% to 1.18.


Family Guy - close to a league average drop, down 12% to 2.06.


Mulaney - I'm with Silvio, I can't see Family Guy's audience tunning in, mix it with FOX slump and it finishes at 1.15.

Spot said...

No major deviations today again:
- Resurrection: 1.80. Like everyone else, I think it will have no resemblance whatsoever with its premiere numbers. I am even more concerned now after having seen ABC treating it like a full fledged veteran promotion wise throughout all summer when this thing is practically a new show. And that trend was way worse than anything The Following or Under the Dome did during their first seasons, even if at times I thought the decline was exaggerated (there were some episodes in which the deviations were minimal and could be explained by rounding/ sampling fluctuations). Despite all this, it's still airing in the fall which should be a much better proposition and it should have a good lead-in in Frozen boosted OUAT. So I say it's of some improvement to Revenge's year ago.My guess is that ABC brings it back for a third round at 10pm timesharing with Revenge's final season.
- The Good Wife: 1.18. The timeslot doesn't get any easier (worse lead-in, more competition) and I feel that the show had such an incredible year creatively that it somehow avoided some even uglier trend than it had, which likely cannot be maintained this year. I think the best thing it could happen to it would be Madam Secretary bombing so damn hard right out of the gate that it's gone by November sweeps and CBS gives The Good Wife the earlier timeslot and the direct 60 Minutes lead-in.

- Mulaney: 1.30. Yeah, I am even more pessimistic than you were and frankly, after witnessing FOX's collapse in pre-season with Utopia and even Hell's Kitchen to a smaller degree, I think even this may have been too much, maybe a 1.2 is more likely. This one though, like yours, assumes it doesn't air a full year, I don't see it keeping this number in the low rated Spring.


As always, I don't predict unscripted or cartoons so no opinion on the others.


Network to watch: ABC with Resurrection


My picks: It will be The Walking Dead all the freaking way! Homeland and The Good Wife as well. I've watched the entire first season of Resurrection but most of that was binge watched during the summer and I feel like the show is better suited for that since it's so slow paced. I don't think I will be keeping up with it during the regular season.

Spot said...

I think Ressurection will hold alright, but come to an end in season 2. I see it down 25% with the first 8 compared to second 8, but between -29% and -31% near the end. Improvement or Revenge, and better than American Crime in the spring.
.
The Good Wife hit a freakin' 1.1 last year! And had basically no finale bounce (1.2). It's going to be bad for the show and everything around it. Madam Secretary will fail, the Good Wife will be down -15%, and poor CSI will have either a low lead in or late start time, or both. So I can see CBS being stuck with just 60 Minutes here next year.
.
I see Family Guy holding stronger. It never did lower than a 2.0 last year, and grew from its lead in every time. I see it keeping low 2's almost all non NFL days. However, its lead out will flop. The previews actually look okay, but I think the multicam setup will scare away the M18-34 crowd.

Spot said...

Resurrection's huge advantage last season was that it was ABC's sole focus at midseason. They weren't pushing Black Box or Mixology or Mind Games with the same kind of fervor that Resurrection got. Now, it's hampered with the ugly ratings trajectory (that at least leveled out at the end) and How to Get Away with Murder is the hot drama ABC has lasered in on. I agree that it can at least get back to mid-2's to start since premiere week tends to be a time where a rising tide lifts all ratings boats and Once Upon a Time will open strong with the start of the Frozen plotline. Revenge, in particular, should really hope that scenario comes to pass.


Mulaney does feel like a better fit with 9-9, and had the latter gotten a Super Bowl bounce I would have preferred the former being its leadout on Tuesdays or Wednesdays at 8:00. But this kind of male-leaning show feels very vulnerable in this hour against Sunday Night Football and The Walking Dead just because it's a new program. Fox was just unfortunate because it didn't really have a better place for Mulaney.


Unless The Good Wife has another plot twist that it can deploy in the back half of the season, it's trend is really going to worsen once the new year rolls around. The big question is what if Madam Secretary really bombs out? Do The Good Wife and CSI move up an hour? That's pretty much the only way the former finally drops less than the league average: being closer to the football lead-in and out of the heavyweight 9:00 fray.


My pick: Family Guy. Maybe The Newsroom when that comes back in November since it's only 6 episodes.

Spot said...

By the way, who wants to dare to program ABC Sundays this year? It's a big freaking mess, I have no perfect way of doing them, that's for sure.

This is what their Sundays look like:
- 28/09/2014: Start of the regular season
- 05/10
- 12/10
- 19/10
- 26/10
- 02/11
- 19/11
- 06/11: all regular Sundays

- 23/11/2014: American Music Awards
- 30/11/2014 (from 9 to 11): Hallmark Hall of Fame Movie
- 07/12/2014: Regular Sunday
- 14/12/2014: Regular Sunday
- 21/12/2014: Holiday
- 28/12//2014: Holiday
- 04/01/2015: Regular Sunday
- 11/01/2015: Major competition alert: Golden Globes
- 18/01/2015: Major Competition alert: NFC Championship Game
- 25/01/2015: Major Competition alert: The Grammy Awards
- 01/02/2015: Major Competition alert: the Super Bowl
- 08/02/2015 - Regular Sunday
- 15/02/2015 - Regular Sunday
- 22/02/2015 - Regular Sunday
- 01/03/2015 - The Oscars
- 08/03/2015 - Regular Sunday
- 15/03
- 22/03
- 29/03
- 05/04
- 12/04 - All regular Sundays
- 19/04: Major viewing depression alert: Easter Sunday
- 26/04 - Regular Sunday
- 03/05 - Regular Sunday
- 10/05 - Billboard Music Awards




Keep in mind that we need to fit in:
- 22 episodes of OUAT which should again run 11/11 practically straightrough
- 16 episodes of Resurrection
- 8 (or 13??) episodes of American Crime
- 22 episodes of Revenge
- 13 (?) episodes of Galavant


It's crazy!

Spot said...

American Crime is said to be 11 episodes.
There will be no Hallmark Hall Of Fame on ABC, it departs broadcast TV: http://deadline.com/2014/09/hallmark-hall-of-fame-moves-hallmark-channel-833722/

But, very interesting question. Basically, it's the same problem as ABC Thursday, orders of Resurrection + American Crime (26-27) exceeding those of veteran shows (22), only here it's amplified by specials season. My thoughts:

1. Galavant is half-hour show, they'll double up its 13- episodes order as much as needed during 8 weeks between New Year and The Oscars.

2. Revenge wasn't split season last year, it aired 3 episodes in January while OUAT was on long hiatus. I bet they do the same, only this time in February. As there's no winter Olympics this season, plus they avoid NFL playoffs that way.

3. American Crimes must be 3/8/2015 premiere, no? To use The Oscars for promoting it (and Secrets & Lies too, probably). That leaves 10 weeks until Billboard Music Awards to air 11 episodes. Then they probably plan 2-hours season finale at 5/10/2015. Which would mean Revenge season (and probably series) finale date is 5/3/2015

Spot said...

Interesting information for both, I had no idea about it, especially the Hallmark Hall of Fame being over from ABC, thank you.

I think Sundays are much trickier than Thursdays because of all the specials that should be avoided and also because I personally feel that the shows need the split season treatment even more than the Thursday shows. Last seaosn, OUAT and Revenge were clearly two different seasons within the same year.

I do agree with most of your reasoning although I am still not able to make it work in practice. Maybe I am just missing something but even with the newly open night of the Hallmark Hall of Fame movie I cannot make the orders go up to. Here is the best I could come up with and it still has three problems:
- not enough space to air all the Galavant episodes
- 1 episode of American Crime missing which I really have no clue how would fit in
- OUAT, American Crime and Revenge are being forced to air on Easter Sunday which is extremely unwise. I would have simply started the season a week earlier on Sunday as CBS is doing since there are no Emmys this year there, it would be better than forcing the shows to air on Easter Sunday.

Anyway, it would look like this:
- 28/09/2014: OUAT 4x01, Resurrection 2x01, Revenge 4x01
- 05/10/2014: OUAT 4x02, Resurrection 2x02, Revenge 4x02
- 12/10/2014: OUAT 4x03, Resurrection 2x03, Revenge 4x03
- 19/10/2014: OUAT 4x04, Resurrection 2x04, Revenge 4x04
- 26/10/2014: OUAT 4x05, Resurrection 2x05, Revenge 4x05
- 02/11/2014: OUAT 4x06, Resurrection 2x06, Revenge 4x06
- 19/11/2014: OUAT 4x07, Resurrection 2x07, Revenge 4x07
- 06/11/2014: OUAT 4x08, Resurrection 2x08, Revenge 4x08
- 23/11/2014: American Music Awards
- 30/11/2014: OUAT 4x09, Resurrection 2x09, Revenge 4x09
- 07/12/2014: OUAT 4x10, Resurrection 2x10, Revenge 4x10
- 14/12/2014: OUAT 4x11, Resurrection 2x11, Resurrection 2x12 (2 hour fall finale for Resurrection)
- 21/12/2014: Holiday
- 28/12//2014: Holiday
- 04/01/2015: Filler
- 11/01/2015: Filler (Major competition alert: Golden Globes)
- 18/01/2015: Filler (Major Competition alert: NFC Championship Game)
- 25/01/2015: Filler (Major Competition alert: The Grammy Awards)
- 01/02/2015: Filler (Major Competition alert: the Super Bowl)
- 08/02/2015 - Galavant 1x01 and 1x02, Resurrection 2x13, Revenge 4x11
- 15/02/2015 - Galavant 1x03 and 1x04, Resurrection 2x14, Revenge 4x12
- 22/02/2015 - Galavant 1x05 and 1x06, Resurrection 2x15, Revenge 4x13
- 01/03/2015 - The Oscars
- 08/03/2015 - OUAT 4X12, American Crime 1x01, Revenge 4x14
- 15/03 - OUAT 4X13, American Crime 1x02, Revenge 4x15
- 22/03 - OUAT 4X14, American Crime 1x03, Revenge 4x16
- 29/03 - OUAT 4X15, American Crime 1x04, Revenge 4x17
- 05/04 - OUAT 4X16, American Crime 1x05, Revenge 4x18
- 12/04 - OUAT 4X17, American Crime 1x06, Revenge 4x19
- 19/04: EASTER SUNDAY ALERT! Ill-advised to air programming. But still: OUAT 4X18, American Crime 1x07, Revenge 4x20
- 26/04 - OUAT 4X19, American Crime 1x08, Revenge 4x21
- 03/05 - OUAT 4X20, American Crime 1x09, Revenge 4x22
- 10/05 - OUAT 4X21, OUAT 4X22, American Crime 1x10
- 17/05 - Billboard Music Awards

Although I would like to avoid somehow the damn Easter Sunday, I don't dislike this alternative as it gives mostly clean breaks to all shows:
- OUAT 4A only has to stop for the AMA
- Revenge 4A only has to stop for the AMA
- Resurrection 2A only has to stop for the AMA
- OUAT 4B never stops
- Revenge 4B only stops for the Oscars
- Resurrection 2B never stops
- American Crime never stops

And obviously, the thing I like the most about this arrangement is that all shows stay miles away from January in which they should never air at all considering the competitive environment.

Spot said...

Yes, that is about right, ABS hasn't much room to maneuver. They must use Easter Sunday, and Sunday after Thanksgiving too. If Galavant has more than 6 episodes, then it will simply premiere in January.

It ony bugs me why they said American Crime is 11 episodes. If true, then 10/05 = OUAT 4X22, American Crime 1x10 & 1x11.
But where then goes remaining OUAT episode? One of the Sundays at 7 PM, perhaps?

Spot said...

Once Upon a Time only has 22 episode seasons. So ending its season on May 10 is possible.

Spot said...

The Grammys air on February 8, not in January.

Spot said...

Thanks. I see it now, after you corrected omabin about The Oscars being on February 22, and not on March 1.

Spot said...

Likely ABC Sunday schedule, taking in account Chris' correction of few mistaken dates in omabin's post.

9/28/2014 to 12/14/2014 12 weeks
11 episodes OUAT, Resurrection, Revenge each
not airing only on 11/23/2014 due to American Music Awards

1/4/2015 to 1/25/2015 4 weeks
8 PM - Galavant (no idea how many episodes)
9 PM - remaining 4 or 5 episodes of Resurrection
10 PM - filler or repeats

Yes, in January, for reason to avoid Super Bowl (2/1/2015) and Grammys (2/8/2015).

2/1/2015 to 2/15/2015 3 weeks
fillers or repeats

2/22/2015
The Oscars

3/1/2015 to 5/10/2015 11 weeks
11 episodes OUAT, American Crime, Revenge each

Spot said...

January is by far the most perplexing for me because I'm assuming that ABC is just going to run headlong into the Events like the Golden Globes, the NFC game, and the Grammys; it feels unlikely they'd avoid Easter Sunday since they programmed a new Once Upon a Time there last season. But my basic methodology is based on working forward from September, working backward from May, and pulling options out of my ass for that 2 month gap.

September 28 - November 16: Once Upon a Time, Resurrection, Revenge (9 episodes each)
November 23: The 2015 American Music Awards
November 30: Reruns
December 7 & 14: Once Upon a Time, Resurrection, Revenge (2 episodes each)
December 21 & 28: Rerun/Holiday filler
January 4 & 11: The Bachelor special, Resurrection, rerun
January 18 & 25: Galavant (2 episodes), Resurrection, rerun
February 1: Reruns (4 episodes of Galavant, Shark Tank)
February 8: Galavant (2 episodes), Resurrection, rerun
February 15: Galavant (2 episodes), Resurrection 2 hour finale
February 22: The Oscars
March 1 - May 10: Once Upon a Time, American Crime, Revenge (11 episodes each)
May 17: The 2015 Billboard Music Awards

This idea basically protects Once Upon a Time and Revenge at the expense of Resurrection by letting the former have straight through runs and ending the latter in February so American Crime can also have a clean run starting in March. The biggest solid I can throw Resurrection is a 2 hour finale on the one February Sunday that doesn't have an Event. This also assumes that Resurrection gets an episode extension order; I believe it's only for 13 right now.

Now if Resurrection somehow finds its ratings mojo again in the Fall, it actually becomes much easier to schedule: ABC just throws American Crime into the jaws of January-February with some episode double-pumps to run its episode order out, and Resurrection reclaims 9:00 for the back-half of 2014-2015. Secrets & Lies should hope for that scenario so it doesn't have to share Oscars promo space with American Crime.

Spot said...

My understanding is that Galavant has an 8 episode order. So 4 weeks of a double-pump work.

I understand wanting to avoid the February Events, but why favor the Grammys over the NFC game and the Golden Globes in January? With no Olympics, I don't see ABC completely rolling over for Sweeps this time around. It is a cleaner option, but one that feels unlikely.

Spot said...

Oh I didn't know this! Thanks1

Spot said...

Yes, I completely agree it could be some other weeks in Jan/Feb.
I put it this way only because this way I have Galavant / Resurrection originals airing same 4 weeks, and those 4 weeks being in a row. I like symmetry :)
Perhaps I like it too much - maybe business wise my schedule isn't the most logical.

Note: Resurrection is 15 or 16 episodes, at least they said so at upfronts. If it is 16, then there will 5 airing in 2015 - but it can be squeezed into 4 weeks by means of 2-hours season finale.

Spot said...

Galavant will only have 8 episodes, American Crime will have 11 episodes and Resurrection will have a 13 episode Season 2 since one of the stars' Francis Fisher said it on her Twitter account. Here's what I think will happen:


Sept 28-Nov 16: OUAT, Resurrection, Revenge (8 episodes each)
Nov 23: American Music Awards
Nov 30-Dec 14: OUAT, Resurrection, Revenge (3 episodes each)
Dec 21: Christmas Special, Resurrection 2 hr season finale, Ep 12-13
Jan 4: Galavant 2 eps, Bachelor Special, Castle rerun
Jan 11: Galavant 2 eps, Bachelor Special, Castle rerun
Jan 18: Galavant 2 eps, Galavant reruns, Castle rerun
Jan 25: Galavant 2 eps finale, Galavant reruns, Castle rerun
Feb 1-Feb 15: Filler
Feb 22: Oscars
Mar 1-May 10: OUAT, American Crime, Revenge (11 episodes each)
May 17: Billboard Music Awards


OUAT and Revenge will only have one big hiatus from Dec 14-Mar 1.
Resurrection will only have one hiatus through its season (AMAs).
Galavant will go through its season with no hiatus.
American Crime will go through its season with no hiatus.

Spot said...

This is quite challenging, isn't it? I think it's the most interesting day of the week to schedule on any of the networks.

My bet is:
Fall

- 28/09/2014: OUAT 4x01, Resurrection 2x01, Revenge 4x01
- 05/10/2014: OUAT 4x02, Resurrection 2x02, Revenge 4x02
- 12/10/2014: OUAT 4x03, Resurrection 2x03, Revenge 4x03
- 19/10/2014: OUAT 4x04, Resurrection 2x04, Revenge 4x04
- 26/10/2014: OUAT 4x05, Resurrection 2x05, Revenge 4x05
- 02/11/2014: OUAT 4x06, Resurrection 2x06, Revenge 4x06
- 19/11/2014: OUAT 4x07, Resurrection 2x07, Revenge 4x07
- 06/11/2014: OUAT 4x08, Resurrection 2x08, Revenge 4x08
- 23/11/2014: American Music Awards
- 30/11/2014: OUAT 4x09, Resurrection 2x09, Revenge 4x09
- 07/12/2014: OUAT 4x10, Resurrection 2x10, Revenge 4x10
- 14/12/2014: OUAT 4x11, Resurrection 2x11, Revenge 4x11
- 21/12/2014: Holiday
- 28/12//2014: Holiday


Winter
- 04/01/2015: Galavant 1x01 and 1x02, Resurrection 2x12, Filler
- 11/01/2015: Galavant 1x03 and 1x04, Resurrection 2x13, Filler (Major competition alert: Golden Globes)
- 18/01/2015: Galavant 1x05 and 1x06, Resurrection 2x14, Filler (Major Competition alert: NFC Championship Game)
- 25/01/2015: Galavant 1x07 and 1x08, Resurrection 2x15 and Resurrection 2x16 (2 hour season finale)
- 01/02/2015: Filler (Major Competition alert: the Super Bowl)
- 08/02/2015: Filler (Major Competition alert: the Super Bowl)
- 15/02/2015: Filler
- 22/02/2015 - The Oscars


Spring
- 01/03/2015 - OUAT 4X12, American Crime 1x01, Revenge 4x12
- 08/03/2015 - OUAT 4X13, American Crime 1x02, Revenge 4x13
- 15/03 - OUAT 4X14, American Crime 1x03, Revenge 4x14
- 22/03 - OUAT 4X15, American Crime 1x04, Revenge 4x15
- 29/03 - OUAT 4X16, American Crime 1x05, Revenge 4x16
- 05/04 - OUAT 4X17, American Crime 1x06, Revenge 4x17
- 12/04 - OUAT 4X18, American Crime 1x07, Revenge 4x18
- 19/04: EASTER SUNDAY ALERT! Ill-advised to air programming. But still: OUAT 4X19, American Crime 1x08, Revenge 4x19
- 26/04 - OUAT 4X20, American Crime 1x09, Revenge 4x20
- 03/05 - OUAT 4X21, American Crime 1x10, Revenge 4x21
- 10/05 - OUAT 4X22, American Crime 1x101, Revenge 4x22
- 17/05 - Billboard Music Awards

Spot said...

The Grammys have historically taken a higher bite out of the ABC dramas than the other two events, although those two still take a big one.

It seems to be Golden Globes > NCF > Grammys > Super Bowl. Obviously, because the first three events are usually in consecutive weeks, the effect tends to amplify, but still.

I hate the idea of them bringing them in February. See my schedule above to see how it all works perfectly. How would you air poor Resurrecton if you forced it to come back in February?

You would have to air it on the 18/01 against the NFC, then on the 25/01 (free week), then on the 08/02 against the freaking grammys after a one week break and then on the 15/02 (free week). Why subject it to such horrible scheduling? Coming back in January after only two weeks off to finish uninterrupted and against less stellar competition is better IMO! Only advantages!

Spot said...

Goodbye, Rez. And good riddance.

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