Friday, September 26, 2014

The Question, Friday 9/26/14: Will The Amazing Race Be Less Amazing on Friday?


Sadly for Question purposes, Premiere Friday is mostly filled with series that have been airing on Friday for awhile. The only exception is CBS' The Amazing Race, which comes to Friday after being on Sunday since 2006. It was part of CBS' effort to give Madam Secretary its best possible timeslot. CBS has currently ordered only a fall season for TAR, and midseason options like Undercover Boss and The Mentalist figure to factor into the Friday/Sunday web somehow, so the Race's numbers may be more important than you might think. Will The Amazing Race be less amazing on Friday? That's The Question for Friday, September 26, 2014.


The Amazing Race & Undercover Boss Last Season
2.0 (Amazing Race fall 2013 premiere, 1.5 60M lead-in)
2.02 (TAR fall 2013 average, 2.25 avg lead-in)
1.5 (TAR spring 2014 premiere, vs. Olympics, 1.3 lead-in)
1.76 (TAR spring 2014 average, 1.49 avg lead-in)
1.6 (Undercover Boss premiere)
1.51 (Undercover Boss average) 

Benefiting this handicap is the fact that The Amazing Race's last season also premiered under difficult circumstances: at a 1.5 vs. the Winter Olympics. The show posted another 1.5 against the Academy Awards the next week and then bounced back significantly for the rest of the season. Is airing on Friday in the fall tougher than airing on Sunday in the spring against the Olympics or Oscars? The Friday slot could actually be a touch easier, especially since NBC (The Mysteries of Laura encore) and Fox (Utopia) will be off the map ratings-wise. But the one-time-only presence of Friday titan Shark Tank in the hour might make it close to a wash.

Over/Under: 1.55.

No entries accepted after 6:00am ET the morning after the date in the headline. If editing your pick, please leave a separate comment.

32 comments:

Spot said...

Under

Spot said...

Ladies and gents Grey's just got adjusted UP, yes UP. That's a 9% drop people. The lowest premiere drop since 2008

Spot said...

I don't disagree that the premise isn't potentially compelling. I'm simply saying that the ad campaign, to my eyes, was syrupy-sweet sewage.

I should probably disclaim, though, that I'd already seen the same premise executed much more compellingly (albeit in French) earlier in the season. This may have colored my response to the ads and the show itself. (although the big ratings drops suggest I'm not the only one who ultimately felt this way after watching the show)

Spot said...

I predicted a 1.5 premiere, so slightly under.

Spot said...

That is true. Gosh-dang sports!

Spot said...

Under. It's still one of the classiest reality competitions whatever the ratings and I am generally not a fan of reality competitions. When ABC comedies return to this time slot, it can only help boost TAR, at least a little.

Spot said...

Under

Spot said...

I feel like everything is overperforming this week.

OVER - 1.8 (Shark Tank at 2.2).

Spot said...

This is one show where I think social media played a large role. ABC tapped into the social media power of Scandal and made it pop with How to Get Away with Murder. I think that's where the big kick came from that many were underestimating.

Spot said...

I'm excited for Gracepoint, just wish it wasn't airing on FOX. This would work much better on a cable network (FX).

Spot said...

Under, but a much more consistent season and possibly a spring cycle

Spot said...

Under

Spot said...

This line would be far too low were it not for Shark Tank. With it? I'm actually going UNDER.

Spot said...

FOX could use actual foxes on its shows to spark a turnaround. Seeing as their only big ratings now come from football, let's have brand new FOX football - football played by foxes.


It's still a better concept than Utopia.

Spot said...

It was the sort of concept that was one good advertising push away from at least getting sampled. And ABC knew it, and launched it out of the Oscars, where they could give it the maximum promotional push (and probably to a disproportionately receptive audience for that sort of thing).

Obviously not nearly all of that sampling crowd stuck around, but said crowd was so big in the first place it could (and did) drop big without falling into the bear's jaws.

Spot said...

Under.

Spot said...

I'm not "excited" for Gracepoint, but the slot's vacant, so I am almost certain to at least check out the pilot. (and likely the next few eps after that, at least up to the return of The Returned)



It probably helps my cause that I haven't seen Broadchurch, so I can enter Gracepoint w/out having my opinion skewed.

Spot said...

ABC did an amazing job branding Thursdays and it has paid off for them really big. I wonder if this something they may consider for other nights...perhaps Wednesday if they are able to find a family drama.

Spot said...

Yep. And they shall be picked up alongside The Granite Family.

https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=3iBd3F_WW0A

Spot said...

It still might find a second life on cable!

Spot said...

You know what? For the first time ever in this game, I'm changing my pick. Under.

Spot said...

Under (1.5)

Spot said...

Umm... I probably should say under... But my gut is telling me to go Over. Gotta go with my gut!

Over.

Spot said...

Over.

The trend and factor extrapolation say under, but I don't believe it. I'll regret this tomorrow lol

Spot said...

Under.

Spot said...

Revenge was predicted by many to be doomed from its premiere, maybe not even survive the first few episodes, even Paul Lee didn't expect it to survive 7 episodes. So when it did well in Season 1, all of a sudden, the writers (who probably didn't expect a few seasons) had the task of expanding and dragging it on. The original producer actually wanted 13-episode seasons (and that's the reason why he left after 2 seasons), but ABC forced him to have 22 episodes seasons.

Spot said...

ABC still has the ability to draw big crowds for premieres, which must be a sigh of relief for them.

Spot said...

Over.

Spot said...

I enjoy Amazing Race and glad it has moved to Fridays so those NFL overruns won't affect its starting time anymore.

I'm predicting the Over.

Spot said...

Over at 1.6

Spot said...

all the ABC line was even adjusted up! even more impressive

Spot said...

The reluctance of the producer to do more than 13 in a season just further proves my point that it was premise-limited. It sounds like it was also a victim of particularly poor preparation. That's why you should always have at least a rough idea of where you want your show to go after season one, although of course, you also need some flexibility.

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