Monday, September 29, 2014

The Question, Monday 9/29/14: Will Castle Build an Advantage on NCIS: Los Angeles?


CBS schedulers took what would've been the most interesting premiere of Monday #2 off the board when they decided to hold Mom in favor of The Big Bang Theory repeats at 8:30. But we still have the opening duel between veteran procedurals Castle and NCIS: LA at 10/9c. Castle is entering its seventh season in this hour, while NCIS: Los Angeles is finally on the move after five seasons following the NCIS mothership. As long as The Blacklist is here (and maybe even beyond), these two shows will probably be battling for second place, but it could be a close one. And both shows are resolving cliffhangers tonight. Will Castle build an advantage on NCIS: Los Angeles? That's The Question for Monday, September 29, 2014.



Castle and NCIS: Los Angeles Last Season
2.2/1.93/2.1 (Castle premiere/avg/finale)
3.0/2.43/2.5 (NCIS: LA prem/avg/fin, Tuesday 9/8c)

NOTE: THERE IS A SPREAD. IT IS NOT JUST WHICH SHOW WILL WIN. PLEASE KEEP READING.

Before the season, I expected this matchup to be very close. But The Big Bang Theory is still on Monday, so Scorpion should stay relatively strong as an LA lead-in. It may not be much/any weaker than the lead-in LA had on Tuesday last spring. I say this makes NCIS: LA the favorite in the early going, but not by much; it's a new night and a lot more drama competition than LA is used to.

Spread: NCIS: Los Angeles beats Castle by 0.15 points.

TO CLARIFY: Respond with "NCIS: Los Angeles" if you think NCIS: Los Angeles beats Castle by 0.2 points or more. Respond with "Castle" if you think NCIS: Los Angeles beats Castle by 0.1 or if you think Castle beats/ties NCIS: Los Angeles.

No entries accepted after 6:00am ET the morning after the date in the headline. If editing your pick, please leave a separate comment.

67 comments:

Spot said...

I think Scorpion is going to have a pretty good hold, and NCIS: LA will have a pretty good hold from that, which should cover the spread.

NCIS: Los Angeles

Spot said...

Castle. I have this as a pick 'em.

Spot said...

NCIS: LA, Incredibly tight. NCIS: LA (2.0) beating Castle (1.8)

Spot said...

NCIS: Los Angeles

I think with TBBT anchoring CBS night, NCIS:LA should easily beat this spread, something like 2.4 to 1.9. It will be another story when ratings beast returns to Thursday.

Spot said...

The Big Bang Theory will likely help keep Scorpion afloat, giving NCIS: Los Angeles a bit of extra 'oomph'.

NCIS: LOS ANGELES

Spot said...

My train of thought was 'NCIS beating Castle by at least 0.2' before looking at the spread. Sticking with that gut

NCIS: Los Angeles

Spot said...

NCIS: LA

Spot said...

Arrgh, I really don't know.
- Castle went from a 2.1 finale to a 2.2 premiere last year and while that was already against the very big blacklist, it was also against non-existent Hostages. It has the same 2.1 finale to come back from this time but LA should put a dent in its ratings so upside is limited. I say it comes back with a 2.0-2.1. this time around.
- LA is much harder to predict. I say Scorpion does high 2s, which would indeed be close to what LA was getting last year. But as compatible as it may be, it should be less compatible, and it is a later hour and the drama competition is crazily more intense. I think Under the Dome is a stronger show than most of us think and that got a 1.8 last week. LA does better but not thaaat much better especially since Scorpion will go lower. I say a 2.2-2.3.

This is ridiculous close and I will probably regret this tomorrow but I have been going pro-ABC the entire premiere week and it hasn't let me down yet.

Castle.

Spot said...

Castle.

The spread is so tight (unlike last Monday) so wouldn't surprise me if this goes against me.

Spot said...

I don't think The Blacklist, Castle, and NCIS: LA can peacefully coexist. I think one will have to be hit hard. The Blacklist will have such a lead in advantage I can't see it being it. The problem is that NCIS: LA and Castle both have premiere momentum and The Blacklist has a post premiere drop disadvantage. Anyways, I can't see people sitting through the whole second episode of Scorpion and not watching LA, so my answer is LA.
My answer is NCIS: LA
But I would not be surprised by anything between 1.5-2.5 for it

Spot said...

Castle. I guess? I think it's going to be insanely close, but this is a really hard one.

Spot said...

I will say that a lot of this is probably just a question of expense. I don't think any show on CBS, save maybe TBBT, would do much better on Sunday nights than the current slate. It's such a death slot because of the sports overruns combined with the general competition of Sunday nights - huge network and cable shows that night. I love The Good Wife, so I want it on the air forever, but I've often wondered, purely from a business point of view, if CBS should just cut its losses after this season and run cheaper shows on Sundays like TAR/Undercover Boss/other reality shows. I think the Good Wife has been saved by a combination of CBS brass realizing not much does well on Sundays on CBS/liking the acclaim it brings/the skew toward richer viewers/the buzziness of the show in the media. It will be interesting to see if Madame Secretary gets similar treatment. I kind of doubt it. My guess is MS is one and done - maybe even at a 13 to 18 episode order - and TGW gets a short 10 episode wrap up season next year.

Spot said...

The result is based on tuesday for the most part. I had it as honorable mention on Monday.

Spot said...

Castle

Spot said...

NCIS: LA


Unless it takes a significant week 2 drop, Scorpion will probably surmount to around the same lead-in LA had on Tuesday. I also think Scorpion will be much more compatible, as LA was usually the younger-skewing drama out of the three on Tuesday. Additionally, I think the "less-than-average Sunday drop" CSI took may show that viewers are following CBS's schedule changes. It's definitely going to be close though.

Spot said...

Castle

Spot said...

NCIS:LA

Spot said...

Castle. Just cuz.

Spot said...

To me, the SVU premiere is much more comparable with the Family Guy premiere. A long running comedy or procedural should be able to attract a fair amount of casual viewing for big moment episodes like the two in case were. On the other hand, for a heavy serialized show to spike 31% in its 4th season is insane. I don't even remember such thing happening.

Spot said...

NCIS LA. Big Bang raises all boats.

Spot said...

I'd say NCIS: LA. With three procedurals, surely one will have to go down. Both Blacklist and LA have better lead-ins, and Castle went down a lot in the winter/spring. I'm not saying it'll bomb, but it could get last place.

Spot said...

NCIS: LA

Spot said...

NCIS: Los Angeles

Spot said...

Castle

I don't have very high hopes for NCIS: LA in this slot, but Scorpion should still be around 2.6ish, leaving my guess for LA at 1.9. Castle, on the other hand, I can see doing decently, just a hair over its usual last season at 2.0.

Spot said...

NCIS: Los Angeles.

Spot said...

I can't think of anything either. Closest I've got is House's 2 hour season 6 premiere hitting a 6.7. It was up 48% from the previous season's low, but only 11% above the previous premiere. But that last season had been down -26% so it was kinda like Once.

Spot said...

I'm starting to consider an audible on my call too. There was a stack of NFL promotion for the timeslot move for LA. But if NO can only manage a 2.4 right out of the mothership for its series premiere...

Spot said...

My gosh, CBS. Skew older, why don't you?

Spot said...

I see B99 being Arrested Development at best, I like it but I see poor retention and if FOX takes it away from sunday, it crashes and burns like New Girl and Mindy.

Spot said...

NCIS: Los Angeles

Spot said...

NCIS: Los Angeles

Spot said...

Castle. A wedding and a car fire should draw at least a 2.2, and it doesn't hurt that TNT has been running Castle all day leading up to the premiere.

I don't think NCIS:LA will reach 2.4 tonight. I think a good portion of the BBT/Scorpion audience will switch to Blacklist.

Spot said...

NCIS:LA. Though with my current tendency to overestimate CBS premieres, watch LA collapse in it's move to Mondays. But hey, I was right with Madam Secretary!

Spot said...

I would have said that Once is too serialized, also, but it goes to show you how new characters can draw new interest. I imagine that loyal viewers will fell that Frozen is taking over, but for Once's boost to last, they've got to keep the new eyes on the show with the characters they care about.

Spot said...

Well, in NCIS:LA's defense, Callen and Sam are trapped on a sub filled w/ fertilizer-based explosives and a bunch of angry terrorists. That could juice it a bit. Although I don't really expect it to.

Spot said...

Hey Spot, I just have kind of a random question: Do you include clip shows and specials in the overall league average you use for 18-49+, or just count them as repeats? (The OUAT clip show brought this to mind...) Thanks!

Spot said...

Castle. Don't think NCIS:LA can generate enough heat on its own, even w/ the "leads trapped in the narco-turned-terrorist-minisub" cliffhanger. Castle's a somewhat more proven commodity in this slot. And it looks like ABC has real heat, for the time being. It feels like this night is a bad time to underestimate them. (now, Tuesdays @ 8/8:30, on the other hand...)

Spot said...

Also have a theory on the bench about CBS audiences not being able to find where their shows went (Amazing Race, POI).

Spot said...

I think POI's always been tied to its lead-in numbers more than we think it is. And Amazing Race was falling to pieces for a while before this - this is just it taking the Top Model plunge.

Spot said...

Certainly wasn't anticipating that Frozen would really help out Once Upon A Time that much. If so, you bet I wouldn'tve taken the under on Resurrection. That said, it doesn't seem to be resurrecting Revenge. (because I wouldn't be me if I didn't go there)

Fox was doing big business, too. I doubt it'll help Brooklyn Nine-Nine in the long-run, since its primary problem w/ many seems to be the very existence of Andy Samberg[*], strong writing and barrels of laughs be damned. But nice to see it equaling its series premiere rating.



[*I actually find him rather funny on Nine-Nine. It may be because I never watched enough Saturday Night Live to become disgusted by what seems to have been a case of overexposure, and I think maybe what I like in comedic actors is what others find annoying, cause this isn't the first time this has happened.]


CBS = trouble. I was never really sold on Madam Sec based on the ads. I'm guessing many who watched the pilot found the trouble signs from that campaign were in full effect on the show, and/or were simply turned off by how blatantly topical the writers are trying to be. (for real, we need "Another Benghazi" about as much as we need another Benghazi) As for CSI's decline - well, I think 15 seasons is a pretty damn good run even if it will get beat by two of the Law & Orders, don't you?

Spot said...

Castle

Spot said...

This is really a known (Castle) versus unknown (NCIS: LA) battle. And while Scorpion will be a higher-rated lead-in at the 9:30 half-hour versus Dancing with the Stars, there's more that cuts against the NCIS spinoff: new night, different/unproven lead-in, later time, stronger drama competition, and Monday Night Football. Castle is used to all of these things.

Castle.

Spot said...

NCIS: L. A. is dead. Only chance is if Scorpion props it up. Talk about the TBBT wave.

Spot said...

Once is also serialized but less than Revenge, which is one large story, and also it's an open world. It has always introduced new fairy tale characters, so the insert of Frozen does not disrupt that much the natural feeling of the series.

I will still wait for the Once data of next sunday though - many Frozen fans could have watched it out of curiosity (if only to see their favourite characters in flesh!) but it's absolutely not a given that they will stick around to follow the stories of the original cast.

Spot said...

NCIS: Los Angeles for last night, but I predict Castle will exceed it for the season to capture 2nd place in that time slot.

Spot said...

Just to confirm: my choice is NCIS: Los Angeles. My previous statement might've been confusing. :)

Spot said...

Cancel (Confident).

The new regime at Fox aren't going to stick with Reilly's stinkers.

Spot said...

Cancel (confident)

Spot said...

Cancel (confident) .

Heaven knows Fox standards are low nowadays... but this is way bellow even those.

Spot said...

Cancel (confident)

It's The Mob Doctor all over again: a drama keeping the slot warm for the show Fox really cares more about, in this case American Idol. Plus there's simply more upside in a new program for 2015-2016 than letting Red Band Society stick around.

Spot said...

Cancel (Confident)

Spot said...

Cancel (Confident).

Spot said...

Cancel confident.

I must say that FOX fascinates me this season from a purely academic point of view. I
really do not know up until where should we take the "relative ratings
only" motto. If we continue to stick by it indefinitely (and I am usually a very big buyer of this motto) then I am
pretty sure we are at most a year away from starting to treat FOX like
the CW (I don't mean that they will have the same raw numbers but that
they will be judged in a completely different league than the other nets
and not really expected to be competitive with them). I think at the end of the day the fact that they do not have the 10pm hour and still have 3 or 4 renewable shows will probably mask the truth since they will be able to clean the bad hours and be done with it, so we won't really get an answer either way, but it's still very interesting.

Spot said...

Cancel

Spot said...

Cancel. Confident. If they are going to put up with very low 1's it will not be with this show. It will be stuff like cheap Hell's Kitchen or final season of Bones. Maybe even syndication headed Mindy. Just not this.

Spot said...

Cancel, but not terribly confident. Fox literally has two renewable dramas on its schedule, Gotham and Sleepy Hollow, Bones is likely in its final season, and The Following barely registers as renewable. If only three shows get renewed, and RBS is critically acclaimed enough with a young enough skew, I could see it SOMEHOW ekeing out a second season.

Spot said...

Cancel (Confident)

Spot said...

Cancel (Confident)

Spot said...

Ladies and gentleman, 0.3 upwards adjustments for OUAT and Resurrection. I am shocked at OUAT.

@Spot, I am pretty sure this is a series high in PLUS, but by how much?

Spot said...

Cancel (Confident)

Spot said...

Cancel (Confident)

Spot said...

Cancel (Confident)

Spot said...

This is very after the fact, but one thing to consider in future is that, at least in some places, Castle was preempted by Monday Night Football and came on at like 1:25 AM (and listed as coming on at 1:37AM thereby screwing up even the recording). It was a strong episode though...and I was never able to get past a couple of episodes of NCIS LA...so I guess I would still go Castle in the end.

Spot said...

Assuming a 1.7 league average, this would be a 218 and the previous high was the season two premiere at 185.

Spot said...

That's almost a 20% increase!!! That's insane! Thanks!

I am super happy about the show! I just wish Revenge could have followed too.

Spot said...

I *guess* that the whole Frozen thing meant it somehow got treated as a de facto new series?

Spot said...

I really don't get the problem of Andy Samberg. To me, he is one of the most enjoyable parts of B99, I find him really funny. The whole show really does it for me to be honest, I loved the premiere, I was laughing out loud several times and I just adore those characters. I really hope the show manages to survive. Don't really care about the slot, I just want it there.

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