|Mon Preview September 22; Premieres September 23|
|Timeslot Occupants||Lucky 7||Killer Women||Mind Games|
Best Case: It appeals to Agents of SHIELD's genre audience and holds a surprising amount of that lead-in. The competitors are in the same general space but they're not exactly straight procedurals, so this show can eke out an audience there. 1.70.
Worst Case: This is another of those pairings that is far worse than it appears on paper. ABC tried crime procedurals after Lost and it never worked, including ones with a light supernatural tinge, and that's basically what ABC has here. ABC isn't really even bothering to try to appeal to SHIELD fans in the promos; it looks much more like the "sexy" Dancing with the Stars lead-out that it should've been all along. It's actually below Lucky 7's Plus at 0.85 (though it doesn't look quite as bad since it should air more than two episodes).
Likeliest: I believe this show could have a shot, but it's unlikely with this scheduling. The procedural audience is utterly spoken for by CBS/NBC, and it's not got enough genre credibility for the SHIELD audience. I hope it can stay enough above water to get some sort of further sampling after its "correct" lead-in, but that usually doesn't happen. It averages 1.13, settling at roughly half of its SHIELD lead-in. There's a noticeable skew discrepancy between SHIELD and Forever. Might not be the first or even second ABC Tuesday cancellation, but it will get something less than a full season.
|Person of Interest|
|Premieres September 23|
|Timeslot Occupants||Person of Interest|
Best Case: The quality is on the rise with this show. NCIS: New Orleans overachieves, and PoI also gets something of a de facto lead-in from Agents of SHIELD, as its male audience will switch the channel after that show is over. It's down just 1% to 1.95.
Worst Case: This show was a disappointment in its move to Tuesday, and it's become much more serialized lately, which will make it almost impossible to reverse the decline. An underwhelming NCIS: New Orleans lead-in only accelerates it. Down nearly 25% to 1.50.
Likeliest: If I predicted each of the first two hours of Tuesday to be down slightly more than average, that's where I shall go with PoI as well. Part of it is the slightly weaker lead-in, part of it is the timeslot power shifting a bit toward NBC and FX. Down 14% to 1.70.
|Premieres September 23|
|Timeslot Occupants||Chicago Fire|
Best Case: The Chicago franchise is only behind The Blacklist on NBC's "promotional darling" list, and this is the budding procedural empire of this generation. It's up year-to-year when it airs three eps after The Voice early in the fall, up year-to-year in the winter/spring, and only a touch below even in the mid/late fall comparisons (when it aired after The Voice last year and About a Boy this year). Up to a dominant 2.25.
Worst Case: This series is getting a lot less time after a Voice lead-in this year, and NBC's efforts to launch comedy in the 9/8c hour will only get more and more incompetent. Eventually that's going to sting. Down almost 25% to a 1.55.
Likeliest: I was a bit underwhelmed with some of the low-2's this show hit with a Voice lead-in last fall, but I was legitimately impressed with how it finished the season, growing significantly on its Growing Up Fisher lead-in and even beating Person of Interest a few times. This series has the momentum in this hour right now. It's going to be down in the fall because I don't think it can quite match what it did in the late fall with The Voice, but it'll still be a less-than-average drop overall. 1.90, down just 6%.
|Sons of Anarchy||AMC||9/9||2.49||+8%|
The Network to Watch: ABC with the newbie.
The Picks: Person of Interest, one of several 10/9c shows I frequently fell behind on last year. But I'm probably more likely to catch up with this one than The Blacklist or Nashville.