Wednesday, September 24, 2014

Spotted Ratings, Premiere Tuesday 9/23/14


WHAT MATTERS:
  • FINALS UPDATE: ABC had another really favorable set of adjustments, as Agents of SHIELD (2.1) went from the low end of its spring results to the high end, while Forever (1.8) actually went above the Monday preview. (That 1.5 Monday prelim really feels like a long time ago!) That shockingly put Forever ahead of a downward-adjusting Person of Interest (1.7). And Chicago Fire (2.6) dropped a tenth behind last year's series high.
  • A new spin-off didn't particularly charge up CBS' lineup. NCIS (2.9) improved somewhat on its spring ratings but was still nearly 20% behind last year's big premiere, and NCIS: New Orleans (2.5) had nearly full viewership retention but was down almost 15% from its lead-in among the demo. Throw in the return of Person of Interest (1.8), down a significant 22% year-to-year and the network was off by 19% from last year's premiere Tuesday.
  • That left NBC's The Voice (4.0) and Chicago Fire (2.7) free to win Premiere Tuesday in runaway fashion. After dropping much more on Monday, The Voice was down just 15% vs. last year's first Tuesday episode against far more manageable competition. And the NBC drama department keeps looking better; Chicago Fire preliminarily tied the series high 2.7 set on this night last year. NBC was down 11% year-to-year as a whole.
  • ABC was a mixed bag with little interest in a second Dancing with the Stars results show (1.6), and Agents of SHIELD (1.9) was only able to get back to its normal delivery from the spring (even if it gets its usual finals uptick). However, the network was very much on the 10/9c map with the timeslot premiere of Forever (1.7). It took a viewership hit from the change in lead-ins but impressively held 100% of its Monday demo rating, and it looks like a potentially massive improvement on all the bombs ABC aired in the hour last season. Despite Forever's 31% gain at 10/9c, the network was still down 40% vs. last year's Premiere Tuesday (which featured SHIELD's 4.7 premiere).
  • Fox's New Girl (1.3) and The Mindy Project (1.0) took almost the same week two drops as last year when all the competition arrived, and Utopia (0.8) was off by a similar percent. Fox was down 43% vs. last year's premiere Tuesday (with Utopia down over 50% and the comedies about -35%).
  • So the big four as a whole were down by 25% in preliminaries. If Big Bang inflated the Monday number (-3%), SHIELD obviously deflated the Tuesday one.

FULL TABLE:

InfoShowTimeslotTrue
A18-49 Skew Last LeLa Rank y2yTLa Ty2y
Dancing with the Stars 1.7 22% -23%-0.5n/a 4/4 -26% -23% -63% 1.9
Agents of SHIELD 2.1 45% n/an/an/a 1/1 -55% +180% -22% 2.3
Forever 1.8 33% +6%+0.1-0.1 1/2 n/a +177% +44% 1.8
ABC:+56%-35%
NCIS 2.9 20% n/an/an/a 1/1 -19% +23% -19% 3.0
NCIS: New Orleans 2.5 18% n/an/an/a 1/1 n/a +178% -17% 2.3
Person of Interest 1.7 20% n/an/an/a 1/1 -26% +113% -26% 1.6
CBS:+75%-20%
The Voice Tue 4.1 40% n/an/an/a 1/1 -13% +116% -12% 3.9
Chicago Fire 2.6 36% n/an/an/a 1/1 -4% +6% -2% 2.1
NBC:+73%-10%
Utopia Tue 0.8 53% -20%-0.2n/a 4/4 n/a -20% -52% 1.0
New Girl 1.3 70% -24%-0.4-0.2 2/2 -38% -24% -38% 1.5
The Mindy Project 1.0 60% -23%-0.3-0.4 2/2 -33% -23% -33% 1.2
Fox:-22%-43%
Arrow (R) 0.3 57% +0% -33% 0.4
Supernatural (R) 0.3 56% +20% +20% 0.4
CW:+9%-14%
Big5:+49%-24%

KEY (click to expand)
A18-49 - Adults 18-49 rating. Percentage of US TV-owning adults 18-49 watching the program.
Skew - Percentage of adults 18-49 within the show's total viewership.
Last - A18-49 difference (percent and numerical) from the show's previous episode.
LeLa - A18-49 difference between the show's lead-in and its lead-in for the previous episode.
Rank - The A18-49 rating's rank among the show's episodes so far this season.
y2y - Percent difference between A18-49 and the show's rating a year ago.
TLa - Percent difference between A18-49 and the network's rating in the timeslot one week ago.
Ty2y - Percent difference between A18-49 and the network's rating in the timeslot one year ago.
True - A metric that adjusts the A18-49 rating for overall viewing levels, competition and lead-in. PRELIMINARY CALCULATION. For finals, see SpotVault.

(R) - Repeat.

Much more detail on these numbers at the New Daily Spotted Ratings page.

More Spotted Ratings in the Index.

27 comments:

Spot said...

So I suppose for CBS, those are the numbers the regular NCIS twins would have garnered last night against two hours of The Voice. NO is no improvement over LA in the slot, but if LA posts significant gains versus last year's Monday 10 PM occupants, the whole second spin-off scheduling is still a win :)

Spot said...

It's pretty amazing that both The Blacklist and Chicago Fire did so well despite The Voice being down. Chicago Fire certainly felt stronger in the second half of last season when it held up with Fisher as it's lead in, and it's showing it now.

SHIELD's number is disappointing, I thought it could do maybe half a point better than that. But Forever held up great. Funny how down everyone was on it 24 hours ago, but now it looks like it might be able to hang on longer than I expected. I'm not super confident about it going forward, but a 100% hold of last night's number makes me cautiously optimistic.

CBS is a bit of a disappointment. I thought that a new show launching might be able to drive up the total interest a little more, but I suppose not. I thought that NCIS:NO was one of the clearest successes of this freshman crop, but this number, despite being very NCIS:LA-esque, has to be a little underwhelming. Depending on how Stalker does, we could be in for an exciting battle between CBS's newbie dramas this year.

Spot said...

WHY DO I REGRET IT EVERY TIME I TAKE THE OVER THIS WASN'T EVEN CLOSE

Spot said...

I am so underwhelmed by Shield. I thought for sure it would be like half a point stronger. Damn.

Spot said...

Yup, this comes down to LA now. At this point NO looks like the same show.

Spot said...

Doubtful that Forever is going to get another two-tenths uptick, but so far so good for the show. Going with something female-leaning may have been the right move instead of going for the "better fit" with Dancing with the Stars (and moving Castle). It looks even better since SHIELD couldn't get a debut bounce-back; I thought even though Guardians of the Galaxy isn't related to the show the interest in that Marvel movie would rub off somewhat.

Clearly most of us expected NCIS & NCIS: NoLa to be higher. I think we were fooled by NCIS' debut last season against The Voice and SHIELD; Cote de Pablo's departure clearly inflated interest that was able to fight against that high tide. I may have to start being more pessimistic about Tuesday Questions (with the possible exception for the one that's coming about The Flash's debut).

Fox's lineup is already at its post-DST level. Yikes. When Utopia made its timeslot debut, there was some debate about swapping it with MasterChef Jr. on Fridays to just make a 2 hour block of the reality show. At this point, I'd rather Fox just quarantine Tuesdays than marginally move the needle here with Ramsey and go to CW-levels on Fridays.

Spot said...

I along with many others have long been impressed by Chicago Fires numbers but somehow it keeps surprising me with how steady it is, and along with The Voices trouncing of DWTS keeps NBCs run of improvement by not falling as much as everyone else going.

I took the under on Patricks unofficial AoS question but I wasn't expecting it to be this low. I wonder where AoS would make the Top Ten list for biggest 1st to 2nd season premiere drops.

Forever has made me look a fool by concluding from its half hour drop off for the premiere that it would have a significant post-premiere drop. I will eat humble pie.

Spot said...

We don't have a ton of precedent for NCIS: NO as spin offs have commonly been used to create a presents on a new night. I think there are three good comparisons of shows that are the same idea set with new characters or location. Criminal Minds: Suspect Behavior and Law & Order: Los Angeles both grew a single tick from their lead in (both at Wednesdays at 10). NCIS: LA dropped 4 tenths from NCIS at Tuesdays at 9. I think premiere wise NCIS: NO is the weakest of these performers. Which isn't saying much as LOLA and CMSB only lasted a season each

Spot said...

Exciting in the sense that it's unclear what's on top, I suppose. Exciting in that the #s will actually be impressive, I doubt.

Spot said...

Further thoughts:

Apparently this was the first time The Voice has grown from Monday to Tuesday, which I guess goes to show how ridiculously stacked last night was, to hold The Voice back.

Foxs press release talks of expected declines and the promise of better looking L+x numbers, worryingly grasping at straws so early on, its easy to have high % increases on overnight numbers when those numbers are this low.

Amusingly the Fox press release also blames New Girl and TMPs low numbers on Utopia (or the "8pm lead-in" as it refers to it as). Its odd to see Fox taking shots at its own show.

Spot said...

I had it right and I changed it :/

Spot said...

It's probably the resentment from having to keep it on the network for an entire calendar year. Come next summer .8-1.0 won't be so damaging, but now...

Spot said...

8pm fell 5 points between Monday (14.6) & Tuesday. It's a shame NCIS couldn't pull in more of these missing viewers.

Spot said...

Not sure I understand all the disappointment with SHIELD's preliminary numbers It is essentially maintaining last year's average live ratings. It's L3 and L7 were consistently through the roof last year; that trend should continue and possibly grow. It's ABC's number one show for the coveted male 18-34 demo, almost entirely responsible for bringing down the overall median age of ABC viewers last year. How many sophomore shows maintain their freshman year average ratings? Unlike the crime themed night on CBS, SHIELD was self starter, receiving no help from the special DWTS results show. It will be fine. Even though there has been the thinnest of connections with Marvel's blockbuster films to date, there is a connection nonetheless that presents many future opportunities for SHIELD to leverage, if they choose. Jazzed by the success of Guardians, Marvel Studios recently announced a very aggressive schedule of several release dates for their sure to be huge theatrical releases in 2015 and beyond.

Spot said...

Spot does such a good job on the line that taking the Over doesn't often feel like a sucker's bet.

Spot said...

You are dominating the standings for my single unofficial poll!

Spot said...

Because ratings fall throughout the season, and it's possible that Shield will be in the low 1.0s next Spring?

Spot said...

I think NCIS:NO's 2.5 is decent. I wouldn't be surprised if Stalker held as much of Criminal Minds's audience. The question, once again, becomes how well does CM return minus Jeanne Tripplehorn plus Jennifer Love Hewitt.

Spot said...

The disappointment hasn't stopped since it fell off from its 4.7 debut. High-1s and low-2s just don't look that impressive by comparison.

Spot said...

SHIELD stabilized last season and remained remarkably consistent in its second half. The second season debut continued that stability. It would appear, at least a chunk of those who abandoned watching SHIELD live after its potent freshman debut, continued watching after same day airing based on its high L3 and L7 demo ratings. Anything is possible w/r/t future ratings but I would say a 50% drop in the Spring is improbable. The Voice and CBS crime dramas appear to have little to no impact on SHIELD.

Spot said...

NCIS had almost identical Plus as it did 5 years ago for NCIS: LA. NCIS: New Orleans did a tiny worse in Plus than LA 5 years ago. The problem is that time NCIS was on the upswing. This time it is down 20% y2y!

Spot said...

Thoughts after finals: I think Shield's biggest hurdle will be next week. It will still have to air against the Voice and not Marry Me/About a Boy AND get a bad lead in from Manhattan Love Story.
.
Forever is looking better now. I think people put too much stalk into the special preview. The pilot was available ahead of time and most advertising since May had advertised the Tuesday premiere date. I thought it all would even out with the less compatible lead in, but I think lesser competion from NBC helped push it to a slight positive

Spot said...

Thoughts after finals: Chicago Fire positively surprised, and S.H.I.E.L.D. negatively.

Forever turns out to be one cunning little chameleon:
Monday with DWTS lead-in: skewed 75% old, with 1.2 in A18-34, and something like 70% female skewing.
Tuesday
with Marvel lead-in: skewed 67% old, 1.5 in A18-34 (up 25%), and female
skew I don't know but probably not so ridiculously high.

The Voice, predictably, back to more normal y2y drop after huge -24% at Monday against huge competition.

CBS aging even more. Premiere day y2y:
NCIS: 19% down in A8-49, but 9% in total viewers.
seasonal spinoff: 17% down in A8-49, and actually up by 5% in total viewers.
Person of Interest: 26% and 15%.

Fox:
the worst possible combination: disgusting scores + thin bench. It's
like they're tanking to get high draft pick. Somebody should tell them
there's no draft here.

Spot said...

They had the "#1 pick" this year with Gotham anyway - heck, that was a big enough presold concept for it to draw virtually Andrew Luck levels of hype, if we roll with that analogy. It was so hyped that Spot had it at -0.75 in a spread against a promotional darling CBS series premiere with a TBBT lead-in, and quite a few of us actually picked it to beat that spread!

Spot said...

You're probably right, but I see a DOA lead in leading to a 1.8 next week, 1.5 by January, and 1.3 in April.

Spot said...

Keep the football analogies, FOX now hopes that Gotham isn't RG3 (starts well, gets canceled).


Too bad for them there it doesn't seem to be any Russell Wilson on their lineup (could've been Sleepy Hollow, but the steal has already become a bust) or Nick Foles (aka a show that is going to grow over the years), FOX is all Weeden right now.

Spot said...

I believe SHIELD has demonstrated it is not lead-in dependent. If Forever was considered a doomed ABC drama at 10pm, maybe the predictions for the early demise of Selfie are off base, too. I watched both the Selfie and Forever pilots online a few weeks ago and I thought both were much better than I expected. Admittedly, my opinion is meaningless in the whole ratings scheme of things and I often root for underdogs that don't totally suck. Both The Voice and NCIS are showing their age and are not the competition killers they used to be. We'll see. So far, an interesting beginning to the new Fall season.

Post a Comment

Newer Post Older Post Home
© SpottedRatings.com 2009-2016. All Rights Reserved.