Wednesday, September 17, 2014

Spotted Ratings, Tuesday 9/16/14


WHAT MATTERS:
  • The first broadcast scripted episodes of the 2014-15 season didn't go well. There's really no sugarcoating a 41% year-to-year drop for the premiere of New Girl (1.7), and The Mindy Project's -32% (1.3) wasn't much better. But these year-to-year trends were commonplace late last season, and Utopia was the lead-in, so it actually could've been even worse. New Girl saw a big bounce from its episodes late last season, including a 1.2 finale. Now these shows will look to hold up better vs. full competition than they did last year; the nicest thing I can say is there are no other comedies in the slot till mid-October.
  • As for Utopia (1.0), it's still very weak, but it was actually up a tenth in its second Tuesday episode, probably putting the immediate death-watch on hold. And it faced quite the unscripted glut, with Big Brother (2.3) back in the hour alongside a Dancing with the Stars results show (2.1). But the biggest unscripted winner of the night was America's Got Talent (2.5), whose performance finale zoomed past its recent deliveries.

FULL TABLE:

InfoShowTimeslotTrue
A18-49 Skew Last LeLa Rank y2yTLa Ty2y
Dancing with the Stars 2.2 22% -8%-0.2n/a 2/2 -29% +120% +120% 2.6
Agents of SHIELD (R) 0.7 28% -36% -48% 0.7
20/20 (S) 0.6 22% -33%-0.3-0.4 18/18 n/a -40% -56% 0.9
ABC:+13%-5%
Big Brother Wed 2.3 42% +0%+0.0n/a 1/13 -8% +0% +64% 2.7
NCIS: Los Angeles (R) 0.9 21% +64% -22% 1.2
Person of Interest (R) 0.8 22% +33% -20% 1.1
CBS:+16%+13%
America's Got Talent (R) 1.2 29% +20% +9% 1.5
America's Got Talent Tue 2.5 28% +32%+0.6+0.2 6/15 +4% +32% +2% 3.0
NBC:+29%+3%
Utopia Tue 1.0 52% +11%+0.1n/a 2/3 n/a +5% -58% 1.2
New Girl 1.7 71% n/an/an/a 1/1 -41% +113% -41% 2.2
The Mindy Project 1.3 62% n/an/an/a 1/1 -32% +44% -32% 1.6
Fox:+39%-48%
Arrow (R) 0.3 42% +50% -65% 0.4
Supernatural (R) 0.3 46% +50% -33% 0.4
CW:+50%-54%
Big5:+24%-18%

KEY (click to expand)
A18-49 - Adults 18-49 rating. Percentage of US TV-owning adults 18-49 watching the program.
Skew - Percentage of adults 18-49 within the show's total viewership.
Last - A18-49 difference (percent and numerical) from the show's previous episode.
LeLa - A18-49 difference between the show's lead-in and its lead-in for the previous episode.
Rank - The A18-49 rating's rank among the show's episodes so far this season.
y2y - Percent difference between A18-49 and the show's rating a year ago.
TLa - Percent difference between A18-49 and the network's rating in the timeslot one week ago.
Ty2y - Percent difference between A18-49 and the network's rating in the timeslot one year ago.
True - A metric that adjusts the A18-49 rating for overall viewing levels, competition and lead-in. PRELIMINARY CALCULATION. For finals, see SpotVault.

(R) - Repeat.

Much more detail on these numbers at the New Daily Spotted Ratings page.

More Spotted Ratings in the Index.

11 comments:

Spot said...

Nervy times for Questioners! Nice line.

Spot said...

Certainly praying for a .1 bump down for either show (and no corresponding bump up for the latter).

Spot said...

Don't be so selfish! FOX literally needs every rating point it can this year.

Spot said...

Ha! Let me guess, you have over in the game.
Don't sweat, James is jinxed by definition, and he just jinxed himself additionally.

Spot said...

New Girl has a surprising ability to bounce back for premieres (relative to how it ends a season) but a very disappointing trajectory as the season wears on. Maybe this should have been a Fox gave the limited series treatment to...

Spot said...

Finals put it up to a 3.0 total for the hour. I finally win at a question!

Spot said...

Has Fox worked out a syndication deal for New Girl yet?

Spot said...

Yeah. The syndication rights have been sent to TBS and MTV.

Spot said...

And I need every Question point I can get this year! If I can't improve from 50/50, I might be out of the top ten altogether this year.

Spot said...

I predicted a combined rating of 2.9, New Girl's adjustment ruined my prediction.


At least I'm 2-0.

Spot said...

Mindy preliminary 1.5 W18-34 and 1.1 A18-34 = probably 1.5 W18-34 in finals.
That 1.3 A18-49 is already bad, but the worst thing is those 18-49ers aren't "the right one". I mean, last season 1.3 A18-49 would typically mean 1.3-1.4 A18-34, and 1.8-1.9 W18-34. Season premiere, and against no scripted competition, yet Mindy scored only a tenth above series-low 1.4 W18-34. That 1.5 is already only some 10% above cancellation territory, so this show's 99% dead. Remaining 1% is: It somehow brings back those 18-34 viewers.
It actually has 15 episodes order (I thought it was 18, senile old fart), so if it doesn't completely collapse, it might air all 15 on Tuesday with series finale in February.

New Girlpreliminary 1.8 W18-34 and 1.5 A18-34 = probably 1.9 W18-34 in finals.
Obviously, 1.9 isn't awful as Mindy's 1.5 is, but is not good. If someone would force me to pick, I'd say cancel. Not 100% sure, but way more than 51%. Reasons:
1. It could be hit hard when other networks start with regular programs. True, Marry Me is the only one with significant crossover (and New Girl went against similar AGT this time), but still, more competition is more competition.
2. Even if it holds well in the fall, last season it had brutal spring decline. And as it is already so low, spring drop doesn't need to be so brutal to effectively kill it.
3. Even if it doesn't collapse in the spring, it still needs to outrun other Fox comedies. I think they will renew 2 live action comedies. Maybe 3, if they don't like pilots from their next slate. I count Mulaney and Mindy as already cancelled, so I have it as 4 comedies racing for 2 slots: New Girl, Brooklyn Nine-Nine, Last Man On Earth, Weird Loners. Too early to tell.

Post a Comment

Newer Post Older Post Home
© SpottedRatings.com 2009-2016. All Rights Reserved.