Sunday, September 21, 2014

Fall 2014 Best Case/Worst Case, Sunday 10/9c

Best Case/Worst Case moves to the Sunday 10/9c hour. CBS has chosen its latest procedural to endure the terrible overrun-riddled hour, and it's their oldest scripted series CSI.

Premieres September 28
y2y Label True Sitch 2013-14 Slot
1.55 -27% marginal 1.53 +1% Sunday 9:00

Timeslot OccupantsBetrayal Revenge
Avg Orig Avg
1.62 1.12 0.89 0.96 1.46 1.45

Best Case: Like Once Upon a Time, Revenge saw its ratings declines lessen considerably in the second half of the season. If Resurrection hangs in there, the 10/9c upgrade may actually be something of an upgrade for Revenge, which will have much less drama competition than the Walking Dead/Good Wife/Boardwalk/Homeland drama gauntlet. Down just 5% to 1.48.

Worst Case: The declines may have lessened, but that was largely fueled by some strong heat for Resurrection that isn't going to be nearly the same in season two. It matches last season's drop and then some, dipping below 1.0 when ABC gets weaker at 9/8c in the spring. 1.10.

Likeliest: This is another of those serialized shows for which reversing the downslide is very unlikely. I expect the drops will not be too bad with ABC doing pretty good business earlier on the Sunday sked in the fall (and it will be a huge timeslot improvement vs. Betrayal). Its situation in the second half could be rough, but it won't be hurt too terribly. Down 20% to 1.24.

Premieres September 28
y2y Label True Sitch 2013-14 Slot
1.90 -17% solid 1.88 +1% Wednesday 10:00

Timeslot OccupantsThe Mentalist
Avg Orig Avg
1.65 1.47 1.46 1.66

Best Case: CSI has proven to be one of the most situationally resilient shows on television. Its smallest drop in recent years came when it got moved (to Wednesday 10/9c in 2011-12), and it's always virtually unfazed in its Thanksgiving Eve airings. It might actually improve noticeably on the sagging The Mentalist's numbers. 1.71, down just 10% from last season.

Worst Case: CSI: Miami dropped 33% when it moved to Sunday 10/9c. The Mentalist dropped 34%. That's a pretty consistent history, and both of those shows came from worse situations; Miami led out of a comedy block, while Mentalist out of merely solid Person of Interest. CSI had a hit lead-in with Criminal Minds, and it's trading it for borderline flop The Good Wife. Down almost 40% to a 1.15, matching or maybe even a touch below TGW.

Likeliest: I think this will drop a bit less than the last two Sunday 10/9c sacrifices, but that's mostly because of the CSI: Cyber plan. They may move CSI to 9/8c and use it as a Cyber lead-in, but even if they just end CSI early, that would also be helpful to the average. However, like Miami and Mentalist before it, it will have a rough time digging too far out of the hole its Good Wife lead-in creates. 1.35, down 29%.

Sunday Night Football
Premieres September 4
y2y Label True Sitch 2013-14 Slot
7.90 -3% megahit 7.22 +9% Sunday 8:30

Timeslot OccupantsSunday Night Football Crisis
Avg Orig Avg
4.46 1.15 7.85 7.50 1.13 1.36

Best Case: The franchise has been down in raw numbers for the last two years, and by NFL standards that's "underachievement." It will even out from that and return to its 8.36 raw numbers zenith from two years ago, marking a +6% season.

Worst Case: The NFL has simply reached a point where it can't really grow anymore. And in fact, a rather discouraging preseason suggests it may be on a cultural downturn. A third major primetime package on Thursday oversaturates the NFL market. Sunday Night Football drops about in line with entertainment programming, if not a bit more, down over 10% to 7.00.

Likeliest: Preseason returns are not exactly encouraging, but they're probably not all that meaningful either. Still, factor in that and the added Thursday games and I think the year-to-year trend will continue to ever-so-slightly worsen. But I can't see it getting down into entertainment programming decline territory. Down about 4.5% to a 7.55.

The Basics:

bc Rank y2y Rank TPUT Rank bc/TPUT Rank
Sunday 10:00 10.8 3 -12% 16 34.2 4 32% 1

The Network to Watch: CBS with the show new to the timeslot.

The Picks: Maybe football, maybe Talking Dead, maybe nothing.


Spot said...

Revenge: 1.24 - I'm in line with a 20% drop.

CSI: 1.28 - The Mentalist lost 34% on sundays, CSI:Miami 33. I expect the mothership to shed a third of its viewership.

Picks: The Good Wife overruns and The Affair, Showtime's new offer and the show that will likely be the best new drama of this fall.

Spot said...

I really think that CSI Cyber being held for midseason was to facilitate an audible to a TGW/CSI/Cyber lineup. It might even be in place for November sweeps.

Realising that CBS not only gave Madam Secretary the 60 Minutes lead-in but opted to premiere it on the day of Broncos-Seahawks - which will probably get a double-digit demo in its primetime portion if it's not a repeat of February's massacre in the Meadowlands, and possibly even if it is - just makes me admire CBS's schedulers even more.

Spot said...

Same predictions for both as well!
- Revenge: 1.26, with a much better fall than spring since I believe American Crime will flop big time. It may have to claim back that 9p hour for May Sweeps. But for the fall I think the great buzz, an overall positive momentum for ABC Sundays (even if very limited with Resurrection) will help.
- CSI: 1.33. I went by the book here and gave it about the one third drop that the other two had. True it's coming from a much better situation than they were and true, it's very possible it ends up at 9pm somehow, but it's also coming from some pretty lousy trends on Wednesday so I a not inclined to be very positive here.

Network to watch: I guess I have to take CBS

My picks: Revenge all the freaking away!!

Spot said...

Yes, CSI, with move to tough Sun 10 PM down around 30% to 1.30.

Yes, Revenge, unimportant, renewed for syndication reasons only, serialized show is bound to drop again for around 20% to 1.20.

Spot said...

I wish CBS would just announce this is CSI's final season. The only way I can see a renewal is if they get rid of George Eads (the only remaining original cast member) as I can't see them being able to afford his contract with a 1.3-1.4 average. I don't see the point of the show continuing if all the originals are gone (looking at you ER). I wish that CBS had moved it to Fridays at 8 for an announced final season. It could have done very well and it should end where it began

Spot said...

My picks, CSI. No question. I might even watch the last few minutes of the Good Wife before

Spot said...

Revenge can hang an oddly high number for its premieres; I don't think it'll crest 2.x, but ending last season in such a cuckoo-bananas way certainly won't hurt. If it's enough of a reboot, it's possible any "new" audience could stick around.

Even if Madam Secretary flames out, I do think it's probable that CSI still ends its season early. Since I imagine Undercover Boss is returning to Fridays, a Winter/Spring lineup of 60 Minutes / The Good Wife / CSI: Cyber / The Mentalist is very possible.

My pick: Revenge.

Spot said...

If anyone is interested, the chart showing intent-to-view and awareness levels based on Ipsos MediaCT data from TV Guide magazine.

Spot said...

Decent intent-to-view and low awareness for Laura - which, sure enough, got good numbers in a nicely skedded pre-premiere-week opening.

Gotham vs TBBT vs The Voice on Premiere Monday looks even more high-stakes now, if that's even possible.

Spot said...

Do you happen to have that for previous seasons? I would like to know how much credibility to put on that.

Spot said...

If Resurrection can come up to mid 2s (which in turn probably related to whether or not OUAT can hit those high 2s for the Frozen premiere), I think Revenge can bring up a 2.0 for the premiere, though probably as a one time thing only.

Spot said...

I think Cyber was only picked up for the low probability event that Stalker fails and they need to try something else there. I mean... between The Good Wife, CSI, The Mentalist and a 2nd cycle of TAR if needed, they can perfectly fill in Sundays until the rest of the year without Cyber.

Spot said...

I am undecided about The Affair, the trailers have kind of grabbed me but the premise sounds a bit too meh for me. I will probably still try it though.

Spot said...

No, sorry.

That being said, Ipsos is a large, well-known, credible market research firm. I was actually a little surprised they allowed TV Guide to publish a chart like this as usually this sort of data is only publicly revealed behind some very vague prose.

Spot said...

The premise looks like ABC's Betrayal, I take that criticism and agree.

But I've seen so many great reviews that I can't be at least I little excited, I'm also a huge fan of the cast, especially Ruth Wilson.

Spot said...

Revenge and CSI go head-to-head yet again after the 2011-12 season. It seems Revenge can't escape the CSI mothership.

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